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[Cracked Sidewalks] Snacking on Cupcakes

Started by CrackedSidewalksSays, May 02, 2011, 06:45:05 PM

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CrackedSidewalksSays

Snacking on Cupcakes

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (Alan Bykowski)

After Marquette's Sweet 16 run ended to UNC, and once UConn cut down the nets, there's little to look forward to for college basketball fans until autumn rolls around. But as the days pass, we seem to be quickly learning more and more about Marquette's 2011-12 non-conference schedule. I thought I'd look at the current known (and likely) opponents and try to pick some good cupcakes as the Athletic Department tries to fill out Marquette's non-conference schedule.

Known Opponents
Home: UW-Milwaukee, UW-Green Bay, Vanderbilt
Away: Wisconsin, LSU
Neutral: Paradise Jam (3 of Drake, Drexel, Mississippi, Norfolk State, TCU, Virginia, Winthrop)

That gives us Marquette's first 8 games, leaving five unknowns. However, some recent articles have shed light on two possible opponents for Marquette next year. Florida Atlantic has reported they are in the works for a game with Marquette in 2011, which would most likely be a buy game at the BC. In addition, Todd Rosiak has reported that Marquette is close to finalizing a made-for-TV neutral site game against a BCS conference opponent.

If all this is true, the schedule is lining up great. Vanderbilt and Wisconsin should both be top-25 RPI opponents. The Paradise Jam and Florida Atlantic should provide three more top-100 opponents. If we get TCU as our opening Paradise Jam team (seems likely, 2012-13 Big East preview game), along with LSU, UW-M, and UW-GB that gives us four more teams that should be in the top 200.  And if the BCS opponent is a Big Ten team, which seems likely from a geographic standpoint, it's a virtual lock for a top-200 opponent, and more likely a top-100. Regardless, if that's ten opponents in the top-200, it would be Marquette's best schedule in recent memory.

That leaves us with three games, and the real point of this article. So far, we will have nine home Big East games and three known non-conference home games. If Florida Atlantic is a home game, that leaves us with three games available, all of which would most likely be home games to get us to a 16-game package for season ticket holders. Here's a look at ten teams that Marquette should try to schedule to beef up the annual "Parade of Cupcakes" to give us a dynamite non-conference strength of schedule and RPI for the Selection Committee to consider come March.

1) Loyola-Maryland: A fellow Jesuit school, they have a three-year RPI average of 198.7, peaking at 181 last year. They finished 5th in the MAAC, but while the four teams ahead of them all lose significant contributors, ULM doesn't. This could be a dark horse NCAA-bid contender as well as a top-150 RPI team next year.

2) Presbyterian: The Blue Hose have a three-year RPI average of 250.3, but peaked with a 207 last year and with only one graduating senior will almost certainly be top-200 next year. We've played them two of the past three years, so we have history with them, both on the court and in terms of negotiations.

3) Tennessee Tech: It's one last chance to see Liam McMorrow play, but that's not why I want to play these Golden Eagles. They have a three-year RPI average of 221, peaking with a 193 in 2011. They also return all but one player after finishing fourth in the Ohio Valley. Murray State and Morehead State lose significant contributors and will almost certainly drop off, while Austin Peay will simply be too expensive a buy after finishing in the top-160 RPI each of the past three years. TTU will give similar bang for a smaller buck.

4) UC-Santa Barbara: These guys might be too expensive, especially after earning an NCAA bid last year. They have a three-year RPI average of 142.3, buoyed largely by a 97 in 2010. But after getting the 2011 bid, this team returns enough to be likely Big West favorites, and their 154 RPI in 2011 could easily jump back into the top-100 in 2012.

5) North Florida: Their  three-year RPI average of 237.7 isn't that great, but it has improved  each year, peaking at 152 last year. They only graduate one player and  while they may not be atop the Atlantic Sun next year, they should  improve their RPI for a fourth straight year.

6) Bethune-Cookman: Their three-year RPI average of 233 doesn't jump out, but finishing 194 last year and returning 6 of their top 7 players does. This would be a reasonably-priced buy game that could pay off with a possible NCAA bid and a likely top-175 RPI.

7) Northeastern: After a dropoff in 2010-11, the Huskies should be back in 2011-12. They have a three-year RPI average of 112.7, but bottomed out with a 177 last year. While they lose their best player in Chaisson Allen, they had a ton of freshman and sophs that got major minutes. If not Northeastern, you really can't go wrong with many Colonial teams. Only three have finished outside the top-250 RPI in the past three years, and none have finished below 300.

8) Mississippi Valley State:  Granted, their three-year RPI average of 302 sucks, but it peaked at 249  last year and they return four of their top five scorers. This team  could win the SWAC, so if you're going to go to that conference, reach  for the top. They'd be a cheap buy, but could finish an RPI around 200.

9) Morgan State: Another team that dropped off in 2010-11, they have a three-year RPI average of 146.3 but only had a 208 last year. Todd Bozeman's Bears return their top-six players in terms of minutes and will probably be back atop the MEAC. They may be pricey due to two top-130 RPI finishes the past three years.

10) South Dakota: 2011-12 will be their third year in DI, and they only have a two-year RPI average of 264.5. But as we played them in both seasons, why not make it three-for-three? They return all but one player, including NBA prospect Charlie Westbrook. While they won't go to the NCAA because the Great West doesn't get an auto-bid, they should easily get back into the top-250 RPI, and possibly up into the top-200. They'll be a cheap buy that could pay off nicely.

So there you go, ten teams that would look good on Marquette's resume next year and are all realistic. I'll admit, I gave a bit of favor to teams we've played recently, as well to a fellow Jesuit school and Liam McMorrow's new home. But regardless, all of these schools should be top-250 RPI, and most of them shouldn't have much trouble cracking the top-200, despite not necessarily being high profile. Add any three of these to Marquette's existing non-conference schedule, and along with the Big East remaining the toughest gauntlet in college basketball, we will likely have a top-10 in the nation schedule when March rolls around.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2011/05/snacking-on-cupcakes.html

Mr. Nielsen

Alan- The stunning thing for me, is that there would only be 16 games at the Bradley Center this season. MU always has 17 to 19 games, that includes the pre-season game or games.
If we are all thinking alike, we're not thinking at all. It's OK to disagree. Just don't be disagreeable.
-Bill Walton

bilsu

I think there are only four unkown games. MU played 13 non-conference games last year, because the tournament they were in was considered a four game tournament. This year's tournament is a three game tournament. Thus the schedule will be 30 games instead of 31.

brewcity77

Quote from: mupanther on May 03, 2011, 08:32:19 AMAlan- The stunning thing for me, is that there would only be 16 games at the Bradley Center this season. MU always has 17 to 19 games, that includes the pre-season game or games.

Well, we know there will be 9 Big East road games. We know that we're playing LSU, UW, and the Paradise Jam away from home. And we know they are trying to negotiate for a neutral site game against a BCS opponent. If all that comes through, that is a minimum of 15 games. If you are only allowed a maximum of 31, that only leaves 16.

Here's the only reasoning I can come up with. Television revenues can help offset the loss of ticket sales. Marquette has negotiated nationally televised games against LSU, UW, Vanderbilt, and most likely another four neutral site games (of which I'm sure they get some of the ticket gate totals). How much revenue does that bring in? In addition, the season ticket prices are listed as the same as last year. Effectively, if there are 16 games at the same price as the 18 last year, they are simply raising ticket prices. As long as they maintain the number of season ticket holders, that should also help offset the loss of two games.

Television revenue, neutral site gates, and higher ticket prices will offset the financial losses of two fewer games, while the guarantee of seven nationally televised games in November and December will increase this team's exposure. Let's say the BCS is Illinois. Outside of UW away, Marquette would have to be considered the favorite in all of their games. And if they beat Bucky, you could be talking about a top ten match-up at the Bradley Center in late December against Vanderbilt. That kind of attention and publicity will more than offset the drawbacks of a season with only 16 home games.

Maybe Buzz and Cottingham have been planning a move toward fewer home games all along. Frankly, this is the kind of scheduling I never expected to see. While I think there's a lot of risk with so many high-majors, this year the four projected high-level teams are more winnable than I'd say last year's were. We should win at least two, probably three. If we go into the Big East season 13-2 or 14-1 (or better) we will almost certainly be a top-15 team. If they can crack the top 5 of the Big East, Marquette would probably be looking at a 2 or 3 seed (or better) in the tournament.

I felt last year's scheduling was a bit over-aggressive at the high end and too soft at the low end. This year, our high end is less aggressive, and our low end is almost guaranteed to be a bit tougher. And while there may be some revenue losses in terms of our home schedule, the benefits should more than make up for it.
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Mr. Nielsen

Quote from: bilsu on May 03, 2011, 09:04:18 AM
I think there are only four unkown games. MU played 13 non-conference games last year, because the tournament they were in was considered a four game tournament. This year's tournament is a three game tournament. Thus the schedule will be 30 games instead of 31.
With your math, there would be only 15 games at the BC.
If we are all thinking alike, we're not thinking at all. It's OK to disagree. Just don't be disagreeable.
-Bill Walton

SaveOD238

Quote from: CrackedSidewalksSays on May 02, 2011, 06:45:05 PM

4) UC-Santa Barbara: These guys might be too expensive, especially after earning an NCAA bid last year. They have a three-year RPI average of 142.3, buoyed largely by a 97 in 2010. But after getting the 2011 bid, this team returns enough to be likely Big West favorites, and their 154 RPI in 2011 could easily jump back into the top-100 in 2012.


UCSB played in the Bradley Center in the NCAA tournament two years back against Ohio State.  I think Orlando Jones was the name of their top player, and they also had a pretty enormous European center (7-2) who caused a lot of problems for OSU.

I remember this because UCSB happened to have finals the week of the NCAA tournament, so they couldn't send a whole band.  Their director emailed the MU band director, and more than half of the Gaucho band that night was actually Marquette band members, including myself and a few who had just got back from San Jose.  As a result, they've sorta had a soft spot in my heart ever since.