RPI Forecast says 100% chance MU gets at-large bid

[bamamarquettefan]

Yes, a lock technically means 100% chance and we know that is never really true.

There is some mathematical chance that we could find out tomorrow that Ohio State had basketball violations in addition to football violations and was being banned from tournament play immediately I suppose.

Certainly there is a better chance of Marquette being denied an invite than that happening to OSU, so it is true nothing is ever purely 100%.

However, using the slightly looser definition of a "lock" as something that it is reasonable to assume with certainty, MU is a lock.

And by the way, RPI Forecast says Dance Card calculations show MU should be a 6-seed even though they assume a loss tonight.  While I don't believe that will happen, the Dance Card formula has been within one seed 85% of the time over the past 10 years.

[Bocephys]

Yes, a lock technically means 100% chance and we know that is never really true.

There is some mathematical chance that we could find out tomorrow that Ohio State had basketball violations in addition to football violations and was being banned from tournament play immediately I suppose.

Certainly there is a better chance of Marquette being denied an invite than that happening to OSU, so it is true nothing is ever purely 100%.

However, using the slightly looser definition of a "lock" as something that it is reasonable to assume with certainty, MU is a lock.

And by the way, RPI Forecast says Dance Card calculations show MU should be a 6-seed even though they assume a loss tonight.  While I don't believe that will happen, the Dance Card formula has been within one seed 85% of the time over the past 10 years.

A 6 seed would be pretty ridiculous given how up and down we've been this season.  Though these message boards would be pretty fun to read if that were to happen. 

[ChicosBailBonds]

RPI Forecast gives Michigan a 99.95% probability of a bid

RPI Forecast gives Va Tech a 99.99% probability of a bid

RPI Forecast gives Nebraska at 99.86% probability of a bid

Clemson at 99.78% probability of a bid

Central Florida...99.81% probability of a bid

I suspect not all of these come true

They have St. Mary's at 100% Chance....maybe....not everyone agrees there

They have Utah State at 100% chance...maybe...others think they have work left to do.


I don't disagree with you, but there seems to be some problems with some of their predictions.  Incidentally, last year one of their 100% chance predictions did not make the tournament.

[brewcity77]

RPI Forecast gives Michigan a 99.95% probability of a bid

RPI Forecast gives Va Tech a 99.99% probability of a bid

RPI Forecast gives Nebraska at 99.86% probability of a bid

Clemson at 99.78% probability of a bid

Central Florida...99.81% probability of a bid

I suspect not all of these come true

They have St. Mary's at 100% Chance....maybe....not everyone agrees there

They have Utah State at 100% chance...maybe...others think they have work left to do.


I don't disagree with you, but there seems to be some problems with some of their predictions.  Incidentally, last year one of their 100% chance predictions did not make the tournament.

I love that someone has us at 100%, but I wouldn't use this for bid predictions. They also list New Mexico at 99.5% chance of a bid. This is a team that has a 72 RPI, went 8-8 in the Mountain West, and has 4 bad losses. Barring winning their conference tourney, they have no chance of getting in unless they can beat BYU for a third time. And that would only put them on the bubble. Their odds are probably 10% or less.

[Windyplayer]

RPI Forecast gives Michigan a 99.95% probability of a bid

RPI Forecast gives Va Tech a 99.99% probability of a bid

RPI Forecast gives Nebraska at 99.86% probability of a bid

Clemson at 99.78% probability of a bid

Central Florida...99.81% probability of a bid

I suspect not all of these come true

They have St. Mary's at 100% Chance....maybe....not everyone agrees there

They have Utah State at 100% chance...maybe...others think they have work left to do.

Those numbers tell me that this source is NOT reliable. MU is in, but some of those other teams are not even on the bubble like UCF--they just lost to ECU by 15!

[4everwarriors]

I'm figurin' USU is a lock since they have that legendary Stew cat for a coach.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I'm figurin' USU is a lock since they have that legendary Stew cat for a coach.

As much as I love the legend, they have some work to do.  They better get to their conference final.  Though, with their Ken Pom # of 13, some folks here might want to give them a 3 or 4 seed.   

[TallTitan34]

Check out USU's schedule if you get a chance.

[brewcity77]

As much as I love the legend, they have some work to do.  They better get to their conference final.  Though, with their Ken Pom # of 13, some folks here might want to give them a 3 or 4 seed.   

Let's not forget they have an RPI of 18. While USU doesn't have much meat in their schedule, that's a lot of wins to keep out, and they did beat St. Mary's recently. I think they'll be in the 7-9 range, and even if they lose, shouldn't fall further than an 11. But it will be interesting to see...I just don't get how they have such a high RPI despite playing only 4 teams in the top 100, and going 2-2 against them.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Let's not forget they have an RPI of 18. While USU doesn't have much meat in their schedule, that's a lot of wins to keep out, and they did beat St. Mary's recently. I think they'll be in the 7-9 range, and even if they lose, shouldn't fall further than an 11. But it will be interesting to see...I just don't get how they have such a high RPI despite playing only 4 teams in the top 100, and going 2-2 against them.

I agree.  Teams like us get punished in the calculation for beating 250+, 300+ teams.  There's no difference between 320 and 220 - a team like MU is going to blow both teams out.  However, I'm guessing playing 220 instead of 320 gives you a boost in the calculation.  They should just count all 200+ RPI teams the same.  I wonder how that would change the #'s?  Or if it would make a difference at all?

[muhoosier260]

Check out USU's schedule if you get a chance.

pretty good record. Though they have one good win against st. mary's, and played two other good teams, both losses to Georgetown and BYU, every other game is tissue soft.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Let's not forget they have an RPI of 18. While USU doesn't have much meat in their schedule, that's a lot of wins to keep out, and they did beat St. Mary's recently. I think they'll be in the 7-9 range, and even if they lose, shouldn't fall further than an 11. But it will be interesting to see...I just don't get how they have such a high RPI despite playing only 4 teams in the top 100, and going 2-2 against them.

Because they have so many road wins...road wins are huge for the RPI.