Lunard's latest Bracket is In

[willie warrior]

He has us holding at 10 seed, playing Temple in Tulsa.

Hard to believe but I hope that holds up and the Selection Committee concurs.

[DCWarriors04]

thank God for soft bubbles...now lets hope there aren't any unexpected upsets this week in all of the conference tournaments...first up tonight VCU vs ODU.

[Tugg Speedman]

Hard to believe but I hope that holds up and the Selection Committee concurs.

Not hard to believe, unless you only watch MU games and believe the BE is a middling power conference.

I still contend we have already played this year's national champion.

[96warrior]

I'm not worried about getting in, I think we're in. I'm more bummed about not having 10 wins in conference play. We were the only ones other than Pitt to have 10 wins every season since we joined.

[GGGG]

I still contend we have already played this year's national champion.

Yep.  Mississippi Valley is STILL ALIVE!!!!

[brewcity77]

Temple's an okay draw. Tough, because they're long, but their defense isn't overwhelming. Texas in the second round, however...I see no way we beat them. They have the top adjusted defensive rating on kenpom by a good margin. Second round at best for us.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[DCWarriors04]

this says it best...

Marquette has the most to prove of any Big East team this week. The Golden Eagles did win at Connecticut, but couldn't beat Cincinnati at home and were barely competitive at Seton Hall. Marquette needs to beat Providence in the first round Tuesday. At that point, beating West Virginia in the second round would probably be just icing on the cake.

[TallTitan34]

Bracketgraphy has us as a 9 seed and thye have an 85% accuaracy all-time in picking the seed within one line.  They note the one line stat because the committee can move teams a line for location reasons, conference reasons, etc.

http://www.bracketography.com/

[TallTitan34]

Chicago seems to be a lock for the 7/10, 2/15 location with Purdue and Notre Dame hovering around that 2 seed.

I would love for Marquette to be the 10 seed in Chicago.

[TallTitan34]

Lunardi also has #22, #24 ranked Missouri out of the tournament.

[brewcity77]

Lunardi also has #22, #24 ranked Missouri out of the tournament.

That's a typo. Look at the East Region, Missouri is the 8-seed. He meant to put Missouri State, who really has no good qualifiers outside of their RPI. Missouri is a lock to be in.

As far as Chicago, I'd love it, but can't see it. Would they really put us there as a 10-seed, likely giving us home-court advantage over most 7-seeds and 2-seeds?

[buckchuckler]

For as bad as we have been this season we have beaten teams that Lunardi has as 2,3,and 5(2) seeds.  Maybe MU isn't the worst team ever after all.

[Benny B]

Chicago seems to be a lock for the 7/10, 2/15 location with Purdue and Notre Dame hovering around that 2 seed.

I would love for Marquette to be the 10 seed in Chicago.

Assuming MU got out of the first round unscathed, that would present a golden opportunity for a 10 over 2 upset.  It could be a very, very pro-MU crowd because A) it's as close to home-court as MU can get in the NCAAT (magnified by the sheer number of alumni that live in or are from Chicago) and B) the Domers who show up early for their game on Sunday to cheer on MU.  Granted the rivalry and all, my guess is that ND fans would rather see MU beat Purdue than the other way around -- if for no other reason that it makes them look better (having split 1-1 with MU).

As far as Chicago, I'd love it, but can't see it. Would they really put us there as a 10-seed, likely giving us home-court advantage over most 7-seeds and 2-seeds?

You mean like putting #11 seeds Utah State and Washington in Boise and San Jose, respectively?  While the geographic proximity isn't as close, you have to admit that those two sites were as close to home court as they were going to get.

[NavinRJohnson]

As far as Chicago, I'd love it, but can't see it. Would they really put us there as a 10-seed, likely giving us home-court advantage over most 7-seeds and 2-seeds?

Is it something they would set out to do? Probably not. Is it something they would do? Sure.

It seems like they give some of the hard to figure and bubble teams "opportunities." If they have them as the overall 40th seed as an example. They might bump them up a line to the 8/9 game but send them out west, or give them the highest rated 8 seed, have them move on to the overall number 1, etc. Likewise, they might move them down a line or two but allow them to play in Chicago. If the 7 and 2 seeds in question are in reality closer to 8 and 3 seeds respectively, they might give them the opportunity to make them prove it against a team like MU playing close to home. I think they do a lot of this type of balancing throughout the bracket. Their overall goal is to put together a good tournament. If all the games were played in the same arena, they could just seed them 1-68 and fill in the brackets. If they felt making MU a 10 seed in Chicago would create potentially good matchups, etc., absolutely they would do it.

[GGGG]

It really is going to depend who they get matched up with in a potential second round game.  You'd think that Wisconsin, Notre Dame and Purdue would get to play in Chicago as the highest seed in a four team "pod."  Of those three, we can really only match up with Purdue in a second round game.

[TallTitan34]

Notre Dame and Purdue fans would out number us in Chicago.

[brewcity77]

Notre Dame and Purdue fans would out number us in Chicago.

We won't get the same pod as ND. Even with the large number of Big East teams, the earliest any of them will meet is going to be in the Sweet 16. No way we are in a 7/10 match with ND as the 2 seed.

[TallTitan34]

Good point.  I need to hope for a Purdue 2 seed I guess!

[lab_warrior]

Texas in the second round, however...I see no way we beat them.

Keep in mind, they are coached by Rick Barnes, so we've got that going for us.

[Bocephys]

S Curve from insider: http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/blog?name=ncbexperts&id=6189104

The S-Curve
*: Clinched regular-season title and NIT automatic bid if needed
Bold: Projected conference winners (highest remaining conference tournament seed)
CAPS and BOLD: Clinched automatic bid
GREEN: Teams with tourney odds of 85 percent or better through games of Feb. 22.
YELLOW: "Last four in" (will play March 15-16 in Dayton, Ohio)
GOLD: Lowest four auto-bids (will play March 15-16 in Dayton, Ohio)
RED: "First four out" (teams 69-72 on the S-curve)
ORANGE: "Next four out" (teams 73-76 on the S-Curve)

The Full S-Curve
1-Ohio State*   2-Kansas*   3-Pittsburgh*   4-Duke
8-North Carolina   7-Texas   6-BYU*   5-Notre Dame
9-Purdue   10-San Diego St.   11-Florida*   12-Syracuse
16-St. John's   15-Louisville   14-Kentucky   13-Wisconsin
17-Connecticut   18-West Virginia   19-Georgetown   20-Arizona
24-Texas A&M   23-Kansas St.   22-Xavier*   21-Vanderbilt
25-Cincinnati   26-Villanova   27-Temple   28-UCLA
32-George Mason*   31-Utah St.*   30-Missouri   29-UNLV
33-Florida St.   34-Old Dominion   35-Washington   36-Illinois
40-Marquette   39-Gonzaga   38-St. Mary's*   37-Tennessee
41-Butler   42-Richmond   43-Michigan   44-Clemson
48-Va. Tech   47-Boston College   46-Michigan St.   45-UAB
49-Colorado   50-BELMONT   51-Oakland*   52-Harvard
56-Long Island*   55-Bucknell*   54-Iona   53-Charleston*
57-Kent State*   58-INDIANA ST.   59-Milwaukee*   60-MOREHEAD ST.
64-NC ASHEVILLE   63-Boston U.*   62-No. Colorado*   61-Long Beach*
65-Middle Tenn   66-McNeese State   67-Texas Southern*   68-Bethune Cookman
72-Missouri St.*   71-Southern Cal   70-Georgia   69-Alabama
73-Baylor   74-Washington St.   75-Nebraska   76-Memphis
TODAY'S MATH
Take our "solid" at-large candidates (current tournament odds at 85 percent or better) and you have exactly 37 teams in the field. Add in the remaining automatic qualifiers (Belmont, Indiana State, Morehead State and UNC Asheville), plus our projected conference tournament winners and that's another 21 spots. All told, we have 58 of the 68 spots accounted for, with only 10 up for grabs among current "Bubble" teams.

"BUBBLE" (21 teams for 10 spots)
IN (10, in S-Curve order): 39-Gonzaga, 40-Marquette, 41-Butler, 42-Richmond, 43-Michigan, 44-Clemson, 45-UAB, 46-Michigan St, 47-Boston College, 48-Virginia Tech, 49-Colorado

OUT (11, in S-Curve order): 69-Alabama, 70-Georgia, 71-Southern Cal, 72-Missouri St, 73-Baylor, 74-Washington St, 75-Nebraska, 76-Memphis,77-UTEP, 78-VCU, 79-Penn St.

[PGsHeroes32]

I want us to fall back to an 11. 10 seed is bad. Temple is tough as it is and Texas would man handle us.

[MisterJaylenBrownMU]

Every year for the past few years, I go into Selection Sunday knowing that we are in and hoping for a good draw.  Every year we get a pretty tough draw.  Going back to Alabama in the first round, a Stanford team with two 7-footers looming in the second round, Michigan State as a 9 seed, Missouri, Washington, etc.  Every draw seems to be a disappointment -- last year was probably the best in recent memory, and Washington was a pretty tough first-round draw for an 11 seed.  Maybe this is finally the year that luck comes to Milwaukee.  If they get in, I'd love to see a team like Texas A&M (Ken Pom #47) or a mid-major like George Mason in the first round, see a BYU or a SDSU in the second round, and see what happens.  For as bad as Marquette has been playing recently, it's easy to lose sight of just how tough the Big East is.  Providence is near the bottom of the conference, and Brooks can beat almost any team in the country by himself.  Seton Hall is a "bad loss," but Hazell is an elite talent.  I feel like with a decent draw, this team could find its mojo again.

Maybe this year, not knowing if we're in and hoping for ANY draw, maybe we'll finally see some luck in the bracket.

[Benny B]

It really is going to depend who they get matched up with in a potential second round game.  You'd think that Wisconsin, Notre Dame and Purdue would get to play in Chicago as the highest seed in a four team "pod."  Of those three, we can really only match up with Purdue in a second round game.

We could match up with ND in Chicago considering that there could be 11 teams from the Big East in the tourney.  The committee isn't prohibited from a second third round re-match, it's merely a situation they must attempt to avoid.

Consider that MU will have played potentially 16 of the 68 team field by the time the bracket is decided.  Assume every one of those teams advanced to the round of 32, MU and its regular-season opponents would comprise half of the remaining teams in the tournament at that point.  With all of the other guidelines and rules to follow, a third-round rematch involving MU may not be avoidable.

Let's face it... having MU in the field is going to create more work for the committee when it comes to seeding, slotting and placement.  Let's hope they don't simply opt for the lazy way out.

[Bocephys]

From Lunardi's chat:
Dan (Chicago)

Joe, does Marquette have to beat Providence tomorrow to secure a spot, or do you think they are in already?
Joe Lunardi  (4:44 PM)

I believe they are in, Dan, but wouldn't want to put it in the Committee's hands given the likely outcry over so many bids from the Big East.

[radome]

We could match up with ND in Chicago considering that there could be 11 teams from the Big East in the tourney.  The committee isn't prohibited from a second third round re-match, it's merely a situation they must attempt to avoid.

Do you think that they take into account that we played them twice? Many conferences have home and home but I think that they would try to avoid an early round 3rd game. New territory though.