Cincy is way better than I thought

[NavinRJohnson]

I agree they were better than I gave them credit for, and a bit of a bad match up for MU as well. No way MU was going to win playing as poorly as they did.

Crowder and Buycks combine for 5 points = Done!

[willie warrior]

Hmm..."perennial" 10th place finish? Have we ever finished 10th in the Big East before? Because what you're saying means that it happens every year, and I may be mistaken, but I don't think it's ever happened before. Unless you meant something else.

Talking about going forward. Look at recruiting, look at our downward BEast trend and who has leap frogged over us. Right now we are probably about 8th orlower in recruit ranking for next year. The trend is the important thing. Nobody can say that Buzz's team is improving over past two years.

[madtownwarrior]

the BEast ceiling for MU previously appears to be 5 - 6 the place (except for the 3 way tie for fourth in MU's first year).   With St John's on the rise (and appears Cincy), Mu looks to be battling for 8th - 10th type of team..

Top Tier:  Pitt, Syracuse, Georgetown, UConn, Villanova
2nd Tier:  Louisville, WVU, ND
3rd Tier:   St John's, Cincy, Seton Hall
Bottom:   Rutgers, Depaul, USF, Providence

Where does MU fit in?  - right now between 2nd and 3rd tier?   We may as well get happy with our very average showing in the Big East unless recruiting panes out (last 2 classes are big unknowns right now) or improves substantially...

Talking about going forward. Look at recruiting, look at our downward BEast trend and who has leap frogged over us. Right now we are probably about 8th orlower in recruit ranking for next year. The trend is the important thing. Nobody can say that Buzz's team is improving over past two years.

[brewcity77]

Talking about going forward. Look at recruiting, look at our downward BEast trend and who has leap frogged over us. Right now we are probably about 8th orlower in recruit ranking for next year. The trend is the important thing. Nobody can say that Buzz's team is improving over past two years.

Okay, willie, you decided to go fishing. I'll bite. Let's look at this team in the three general types of positions and evaluate. I'm assuming you're talking about the Three Amigos senior year, so that's what I'll use as a comparison basis, as well as the years since then. I know I'm not known for short posts, this won't be one.

Center

Well, here there's really no arguing. The last time we had an impact big man who could influence a game as much as Chris Otule was in our Final Four year with Robert Jackson. And we still have two more years of Otule. Add in an improving Davante Gardner that will likely benefit more than anyone else from another summer of training and conditioning and I'd say that we are better off at the 5 than we've been in at least 15 years. In terms of acquiring and developing big men, even from the short-term development time Buzz has had, we are much better off than we've been in a long time, to the point where people aren't constantly asking when we'll get a big man.

Forwards

This year we're all complaining about Lazar being gone. Well, in 08-09, Lazar was about all we had. Jimmy contributed minutes, but didn't produce much until late in the year. Fulce, Otule, and Hazel were all basically non-factors. Last year, we were very well off. Jimmy blossomed, Lazar became a first-round NBA pick, and Fulce was a reliable if not overly productive contributor off the bench. This year, we seem to be upset because Lazar is gone and no one has stepped up. But that's not true, now is it? The problem is that Jae Crowder isn't yet what Lazar was as a senior. Butler has been about the same, a few more points, a few less boards. Crowder has been very good, probably better than we should have expected, but not quite to Lazar's level. He's been very similar to Hayward as a sophomore. But going forward, I feel confident about Crowder next year. We have a leap of faith to make in regards to Jamil Wilson, but in terms of recruiting rating and experience, it's probably safe to assume he will put up numbers similar to Butler last year. Going forward, Erik Williams is starting to make strides to indicate he can be a useful backup, and the classes are well-balanced at least with Mellow, Anderson, and Ferguson all coming up the pipe. Not all of them will be like Lazar, but their recruiting rankings are similar. We'll probably stay about status quo here.

Guards

I remember in 2009 before the tournament, all the rave was about Marquette having the best backcourt in the country. Well, at least we did before James went down. That's hard to match. Then last year, Acker and Cubes stepped up more than we expected, and along with DJO we maintained a consistent level of backcourt play. This year, Buycks has had to step in at the point, and as much as I like Buycks, our point play has definitely taken a step back, though recently, Cadougan has shown some promise. He's played more minutes, scored more points, and dished more assists than either Acker or Cubes did in 08-09, before they were asked to step to the forefront. There's no reason he can't make a similar jump next year, and I would guess that based on his production and growth trend, we'd expect him to probably be even better. We still have DJO for a year, as well as the potential of Blue. While his numbers don't match up to any of the Three Amigos as a freshman, they haven't had to either. He hasn't been needed to start game-in and game-out. He can already defend, and while he desperately needs a better jumper, his 6 ppg, 3 rpg, and 2 apg in 20 mpg are pretty decent for a freshman reserve. The questions start after DJO, Caddy, and Blue. Will Wilson contribute? Will Buzz add another guard for 2011 or 2012? Can Singleton be a super-walk-on and give 10+ reliable minutes per game? My guess is the answers are not yet, most definitely, and hell no. Will we have a backcourt as good as the Three Amigos again soon? Probably not. Then again, usually only 1-2 teams a year have backcourts that good.

In Summary

We are much better off at center. Our forwards are probably about as good as they have been, and going forward, are well-balanced enough that they should stay that way for the next 4-5 years. Our guard-play has declined, but if Blue and Cadougan stay for four years and Buzz can add another guard or two that can contribute a bit of scoring and ball-control, we'll be fine. The important thing is that the classes are pretty well balanced, so that while we may never have three seniors of the quality we had two years ago, within two years we should be able to reliably have a junior and senior starting most years that can provide experience and reliability.

We are down in the standings over the past two years, look at the reason. We lost the best backcourt in the country and our only true big man after 2009. We lost an NBA first rounder and two senior point guards after 2010. This year, we lose Butler, but have what should be an able replacement in Wilson and a steady stream of wing forwards on the way. We lose Buycks, but will probably be even better off at the point with Cadougan getting the starting minutes. And I think we are more than equipped to handle the losses of Fulce and Frozena, despite their valued contributions.

2008-09 should have been a magical year. We were 23-4 before James got injured. My guess is if he had been healthy, we'd have won 3 of our last 4 and beaten Villanova in the Big East tournament, sending us into the Big Dance with a 28-6 record, earning us a likely #2 or #3 seed that probably would have had us, and not Villanova, in position to go to the Final Four. But James went down, our seed spiraled, and we lost a heart-breaker to Missouri. And all that would have been because of a class of senior guards that is better than any class of senior guards we've ever had.

Instead we are in a position where we are looking better at the 5 than we have in ages, where we have a steady stream of athletic wing forwards coming in, and where we will likely have two upperclassmen guards starting for us in most years. My guess is we will be consistently in the 4-8 range in the Big East, which should be good enough to make the tournament. Occasionally, we might be good enough to jump up a bit, occasionally we might have down years and be in the 10-12 range that could cost us a tourney bid. But while Buzz may not be able to replicate every year equaling the promise that 2009 held when we tipped off that fateful game against Connecticut, the only schools that do have that promise year-in and year-out are schools like Connecticut, North Carolina, Duke, and Kansas. I appreciate that you want us to be elite, but that will take time. Buzz has been here three years and he has us in a position to be on par with schools like Louisville, Georgetown, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Purdue, and Texas A&M. Maybe they aren't always contenders for the Final Four, but consistently good enough to get in the tournament, and occasionally good enough to make a deep run. I think that getting there is a step towards becoming truly elite. Considering we haven't been truly elite since the 1970s (let's face it, 2003 was awesome, but an aberration) I think that we are at least pointed in the right direction.

[willie warrior]

My response:
12-6 to 11-7 to likely 9-9. We are not improving in BEast.

[brewcity77]

My response:
12-6 to 11-7 to likely 9-9. We are not improving in BEast.

Yes, with a heavier and heavier reliance on JUCO players that don't fully have the system down. What we saw last year was a nucleus of guys that had largely transferred in late, either as JUCOs, or in Acker's case, from another D1. It took time for them to gel and we didn't see them really start to get it until February. This year it was largely the same thing, but it took even longer, which wasn't a surprise because again you are looking at an even heavier JUCO influx and no true point guard. Next year may be similar, but once Buzz's guys start becoming 4-year guys (Cadougan, Otule, this year's freshman class) I think you'll see us get closer and closer to 2009.

He's had to coddle a roster together that became a virtual scrapheap after the Three Amigos left. How many programs go through the same thing and fall into the cellar in the process before they turn it around? I think that if you look at St. John's in a year you'll see that too. Lavin will lose 9 seniors and have a roster that will still be introducing themselves on the court in late December. Will he be such a genius next year when he has an unbalanced class of super-recruits with no experience? Buzz has done what he needed to do to keep this team afloat and in contention when frankly, very few of us even thought an NCAA berth was possible after the 2009 class left. Let's let at least a few of his freshman recruits become seniors before we start saying that we are inevitably trending into the basement.

[Lennys Tap]

My response:
12-6 to 11-7 to likely 9-9. We are not improving in BEast.

When one guy is offering thoughtful, insightful and contextual analysis on the state of the Marquette basketball program and another guy has his eyes shut with his hands over his ears shouting "Scoreboard!" the chances for agreement are minimal.

[WarriorHal]

He's had to coddle a roster together that became a virtual scrapheap after the Three Amigos left...Buzz has done what he needed to do to keep this team afloat and in contention when frankly, very few of us even thought an NCAA berth was possible after the 2009 class left. Let's let at least a few of his freshman recruits become seniors before we start saying that we are inevitably trending into the basement.

Exactly. Our "downward" trend is the result of Crean leaving us with two empty classes. Buzz has filled the holes he inherited rather nicely. Although this season has been painful at times, our team is very competitive while playing in the best/toughest conference in the country. I think we're gonna be just fine.