New bracketology: rematch of first round 2009

[KC_Warrior]

Lunardi has us as an 8 seed vs. Utah State as of today (2/11)

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[Norm]

First, happy to even be in bracketology.

Second, if we get past Utah State, Kanasa in Tulsa? Yikes.

[Pakuni]

Not too keen on a second-round game against a 1, but I'd dance for joy over a first-round matchup against The Legend. Watched their game Wednesday night, and that team has no business anywhere near the top 25.

[BrewCity83]

How will we ever get past Utah State and their legendary coach?

Edit:  haha, you beat me to it!

[Benny B]

Well... at least MU's misery at the FT line will neutralize the impact of Wild Bill.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Not too keen on a second-round game against a 1, but I'd dance for joy over a first-round matchup against The Legend. Watched their game Wednesday night, and that team has no business anywhere near the top 25.

Please list your top 25, especially if they have NO BUSINESS being there.  I wonder if people based watching MU against USF if they felt we had any business being in the tournament?  Judging a team by one game....silly.

College basketball is HORRENDOUS this year, you could make the same claim for just about every team outside of the top 10.

Utah State has lost both games they played against the top 100 RPI teams, at #1 BYU and at #5 Georgetown.  They are not as good as they were two years ago when we beat them by 1.  Then again, we aren't as good as we were two years ago, either.

Here's what the power polls say

Ken Pom  USU 28, MU 27
RPI  USU 25, MU 61

[Lennys Tap]

BYU is #1 in the rpi? What a joke. Thank goodness the committee doesn't pay as much attention to it as it used to.

[NavinRJohnson]

College basketball is HORRENDOUS this year

Yet after 3 years, at a school with all the advantages that come with being at one of the top programs in the country, Tom Crean still can't get Inidana out of the basement of the Big ten, let alone, above .500 overall. 

[TallTitan34]

That was complete crap in 2009.  We played Utah State in Boise.  The crowd was mostly Utah State fans and they were intense.  I have never even been to a road game that had that kind of anti-Marquette crowd.

[Pakuni]

Please list your top 25, especially if they have NO BUSINESS being there.  I wonder if people based watching MU against USF if they felt we had any business being in the tournament?  Judging a team by one game....silly.

College basketball is HORRENDOUS this year, you could make the same claim for just about every team outside of the top 10.

Utah State has lost both games they played against the top 100 RPI teams, at #1 BYU and at #5 Georgetown.  They are not as good as they were two years ago when we beat them by 1.  Then again, we aren't as good as we were two years ago, either.

Here's what the power polls say

Ken Pom  USU 28, MU 27
RPI  USU 25, MU 61

Sorry to have offended The Legend (and activated Chico's knee-jerk need to defend other programs by disparaging Marquette)

That said, USU has played exactly two teams in the RPI top 100, losing both times. Their best win of the season is over Long Beach State, an 11-10 team with an RPI of 116 (Pomeroy 101).  Their next best win is over 11-12 New Mexico State, RPI 127 (Pomeroy 137). Only six of their 25 games have come against teams with winnng records. They're .500 in those games.  On Wednesday night they were handled relatively easily (never got closer than six in the final 8+ minutes) by an Idaho team whose resume includes a 42-point loss to Montana.
Sorry, Stew fan, but these are not the credentials of a top 25 team. And, I suspect, we'll see that when the new rankings come out Monday.
Apparently the bracketology folks agree with me, given their projected seeding (Lunardi has them an 89, Sports Illustrated has them a 9, your boy Palm has them a 12).
Tell me, do legit top 25 teams routinely get seeded in the lower half of their bracket?

I'm still trying to figure out what saying USU doesn't belong in the top 25 has to do with Marquette belonging in the tournament, but I know it's hard for you to pass a chance to take a dig.

[groove]

/

[ChicosBailBonds]

BYU is #1 in the rpi? What a joke. Thank goodness the committee doesn't pay as much attention to it as it used to.

But they still pay attention to it, that's the point. It's their metric based rating system, so they are going to use it.

BYU is actually #2 this morning, behind Kansas.  They have been rewarded for playing a top 20 schedule (OSU's schedule is pretty bad which is why they aren't ahead of BYU).

[ChicosBailBonds]

Yet after 3 years, at a school with all the advantages that come with being at one of the top programs in the country, Tom Crean still can't get Inidana out of the basement of the Big ten, let alone, above .500 overall. 

With 3 starters out this year, that does make things tougher.  They have one starter back now, the other two still down.  I'll bet they fire him any second now because MU fans think he sucks.  LOL.  As most IU fans say, "beat us now because it's not going to happen very much in the future."  They are going to be LOADED and all those advantages have started to kick in with the next two classes.  Plus they are currently the 2nd youngest team in the Big Ten as it is. 

[ChicosBailBonds]

Sorry to have offended The Legend (and activated Chico's knee-jerk need to defend other programs by disparaging Marquette)

I didn't disparage MU at all.  You said "Watched their game Wednesday night, and that team has no business anywhere near the top 25".   I said, if you're going to judge a team by watching just one sample, then I wonder how many people think MU is tournament worthy if they were to judge our performance that SAME NIGHT against USF.  Using one sample point is stupid.

That said, USU has played exactly two teams in the RPI top 100, losing both times. Their best win of the season is over Long Beach State, an 11-10 team with an RPI of 116 (Pomeroy 101).  Their next best win is over 11-12 New Mexico State, RPI 127 (Pomeroy 137). Only six of their 25 games have come against teams with winnng records. They're .500 in those games.  On Wednesday night they were handled relatively easily (never got closer than six in the final 8+ minutes) by an Idaho team whose resume includes a 42-point loss to Montana.
Sorry, Stew fan, but these are not the credentials of a top 25 team. And, I suspect, we'll see that when the new rankings come out Monday.
Apparently the bracketology folks agree with me, given their projected seeding (Lunardi has them an 89, Sports Illustrated has them a 9, your boy Palm has them a 12).
Tell me, do legit top 25 teams routinely get seeded in the lower half of their bracket?

I also said they lost both games to top 100 teams.  I asked you to list your top 25 teams.....hopefully we'll get that from you at some point.  As far as the bracket seedings, according to the Bracket Matrix which pulls 58 different bracket projections around the country, the avg Utah State seed is a 9, but 14 of them have them in the upper part of the bracket...some at a 5 seed.  I noticed you didn't include those so I'm happy to provide them

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

Utah State can only control their schedule so much.  No one wants to go up there to play them.  They're a mid major that everyone ducks, so their schedule is what it is.  We do agree that they are not as good this year as they were two years ago, but this MU team (I don't know if you agree) is not as good as that MU team two years ago either, not by a long shot IMO, yet we won by 1 point with 2 NBA players and 4 of our top 10 scorers of all time on that squad.

I'm still trying to figure out what saying USU doesn't belong in the top 25 has to do with Marquette belonging in the tournament, but I know it's hard for you to pass a chance to take a dig.

You said "Watched their game Wednesday night, and that team has no business anywhere near the top 25".   I said, if you're going to judge a team by watching just one sample, then I wonder how many people think MU is tournament worthy if they were to judge our performance that SAME NIGHT against USF.  Using one sample point is stupid.  

It wasn't a dig at MU, it was a dig at your comment.  I predicted MU would be in the tournament in November on CS, I haven't backed down from those predictions here on MUSCOOP.  MU will get to the tournament, so where's the dig?  If you mean comparing your one game sample argument to my one game sample argument, I'm just playing your game.

[leever]

Do they practice free throws?

I understand this is important.

[esotericmindguy]

The only flaw of the  NCAA tourney, better off being a 14 seed then an 8 seed.  If they reseeded inside each bracket after each round it would be more fair (see all other major sports tournaments). It will never happen because of the gambling and the interest drawn from gambling, which is why I wouldn't want it to change either.

[NavinRJohnson]

t but this MU team (I don't know if you agree) is not as good as that MU team two years ago either, not by a long shot IMO, yet we won by 1 point with 2 NBA players and 4 of our top 10 scorers of all time on that squad.

I notice this has been a consistent drum beat coming from you since you have been back. Wonder why that is.

[Pakuni]

I didn't disparage MU at all.  You said "Watched their game Wednesday night, and that team has no business anywhere near the top 25".   I said, if you're going to judge a team by watching just one sample, then I wonder how many people think MU is tournament worthy if they were to judge our performance that SAME NIGHT against USF.  Using one sample point is stupid.

I wasn't using one sample point. I was mentioning that I watched them play, and that they have no business in the top 25. Not "Based on watching them play one time ..."
Perhaps my syntax could have been better, but I'm pretty sure you know what I meant. And even if you didn't, all the other factors I've put forward supports what I've said. Rather than dealing with my conclusion - that USU isn't a top 25 team - you've chosen instead to criticize your perception of how I arrived at that conclusion. In all likelihood that's because you agree with my conclusion, yet feel some need to defend The Legend.

according to the Bracket Matrix which pulls 58 different bracket projections around the country, the avg Utah State seed is a 9, but 14 of them have them in the upper part of the bracket...some at a 5 seed.  I noticed you didn't include those so I'm happy to provide them

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

Interesting, but totally misleading. Of the sites projecting them in the top half of the bracket, none have been updated since Feb. 7. Of the those updated since Wednesday night, USU is projected as a 10, 11, 15, 12, 10, 11, 12 and 10.

Utah State can only control their schedule so much.  No one wants to go up there to play them.

Why would anyone go up there to play? There's nothing to gain from it. Stew needs to toughen up and do what Gonzaga did - play anyone anytime, on the road and on neutral courts and build up enough of a reputation and cache that teams in power conferences have something to gain from scheduling home-and-homes. Right now, there's no benefit to it. Beating USU has much less of an upside than the downside of losing to them.

[Doris Burkes Thong]

Utah St. has a very rich basketball tradition, led by a great traditional coach in Stew Morrill, and a roster made up of great traditional players that carry on their rich traditon. Oh, and they have an awesome traditonal looking superfan in "Wild Bill". When it comes to "traditionalism" Utah St epitomizes it, and as an MU fan I envy and admire that program so much.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I notice this has been a consistent drum beat coming from you since you have been back. Wonder why that is.

Do you feel this team is better than the MU team two years ago?  I'll remind you that team two years ago was coached by Buzz and he did a wonderful job.

I find it hard to fathom that anyone would think this year's team is as good as the one that had DJ, McNeal, Lazar, Wesley Matthews, Jimmy Butler coming off the bench, Acker, Cubillan, some decent size with Burke, etc.

That was a special team that got nailed with a terrible injury.  Even with that injury, that was a better team than today's.  Doesn't mean today's team is somehow bad, just not as good as that team.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I wasn't using one sample point. I was mentioning that I watched them play, and that they have no business in the top 25. Not "Based on watching them play one time ..."
Perhaps my syntax could have been better, but I'm pretty sure you know what I meant. And even if you didn't, all the other factors I've put forward supports what I've said. Rather than dealing with my conclusion - that USU isn't a top 25 team - you've chosen instead to criticize your perception of how I arrived at that conclusion. In all likelihood that's because you agree with my conclusion, yet feel some need to defend The Legend.

Nope, I didn't know what you meant.  I took it as you watched them last Wednesday and based on what you saw, they shouldn't be ranked.  I doubt you've watched them any other time this year since it's very difficult to see their games.  I'm not defending "the legend" at all, I'm criticizing what I inferred as you saw them once and deduced based on one viewing that they didn't pass your test.  Now, the irony here is that I have been outspoken against the rankings for years here.  I think they are crap.  I asked you to list your top 25, you still haven't, but rest assured I'm not defending Utah State, I was critical of what I inferred to be a ridiculous process in how you came to your conclusion.  Now, you say you also went into all these other metrics to make that deduction, but that's not what you initially said.  Watching you and Lenny always get so particular about what was ACTUALLY said, I find it ironic that you're going down this path.

Your Gonzaga analogy is kind of funny, too.  Go back through Gonzaga's history and find out how long it took Gonzaga to actually get to that point where they could play anyone, anytime.  Most of their "away" games weren't even away, but on neutral sites and part of tournaments.  The fact of the matter is, it took multiple NCAA bids and driving performances for teams to be willing to take a chance on playing them.  Now, playing Gonzaga is a good thing for most other programs, but it wasn't worth the risk for many schools.  Took years to get to that point.  Gonzaga is also a private school with a basketball budget approximately 2X the Utah State budget. They can carry more risk to do that.

I know you and a few others love to get a kick out of the legend comment, but in that part of the world and in the west, he's considered one of the top coaches.  For those of you who don't realize there is a world west of the Mississippi, I can't help you.

[Pakuni]

I asked you to list your top 25, you still haven't, but rest assured I'm not defending Utah State, I was critical of what I inferred to be a ridiculous process in how you came to your conclusion. 

1. My personal top 25 is irrelevant to whether or not USU is a top 25 team. And, to be honest, I have no inclination to spend my time listing a top 25 here.

2. Your inference was incorrect.

Your Gonzaga analogy is kind of funny, too.  Go back through Gonzaga's history and find out how long it took Gonzaga to actually get to that point where they could play anyone, anytime.  Most of their "away" games weren't even away, but on neutral sites and part of tournaments.  The fact of the matter is, it took multiple NCAA bids and driving performances for teams to be willing to take a chance on playing them.  Now, playing Gonzaga is a good thing for most other programs, but it wasn't worth the risk for many schools. 

Ummm ... yeah. That's my point about USU. They, like Gonzaga, are going to have to earn enough respect that it's worth teams from power conferences to travel to lovely Logan, Utah for games. Right now, the risk/reward doesn't justify it. Is that fair? I don't know. Don't really care either. But if USU wants to do something about it, they can. Just like Gonzaga did.

Took years to get to that point.  Gonzaga is also a private school with a basketball budget approximately 2X the Utah State budget. They can carry more risk to do that. 

Actually, no.
Gonzaga spent $3.05 million on hoops in this reporting period, compared to $2.33 million from USU. I'd wager much of the difference is in coaching salaries (Few reportedly makes over $1 million, Stew's was reported at a little over $400,000 in 2009).
http://money.cnn.com/2010/03/18/news/companies/basketball_profits/index.htm

I know you and a few others love to get a kick out of the legend comment, but in that part of the world and in the west, he's considered one of the top coaches.  For those of you who don't realize there is a world west of the Mississippi, I can't help you.

I can only hope that one day I'll be as worldy as you.

[Freeport Warrior]

I'd love to get in as a 10 (or 11) and catch fire in the tournament. This team isn't better than the one two years ago by a long shot, but they have proven that they can play with anyone. I'm just happy to be "in the game" knowing that it's possible that DJO or Crowder could get hot and go for 40 in a game. These guys are streaky and if and when they get hot -- watch out.

(Cue the crotchety old man voice) All you half-empty young guns have been spoiled by recent success. In the mid to late 80's when I was at MU, our whole season was one stinking Notre Dame home game and zero NCAAs. We beat Bucky and ND once (ND was even home and away) the entire time I was in school. We finished 10-18 one year losing to Cleveland State, Fordham, Valpo, Iona and Loyola. This year's team is a good one filled with studs and a ton of potential for next year. Enjoy the talk of seedings, NCAAs, NBA potential, etc. Success is fleeting.

[Benny B]

Utah St. has a very rich basketball tradition, led by a great traditional coach in Stew Morrill, and a roster made up of great traditional players that carry on their rich traditon. Oh, and they have an awesome traditonal looking superfan in "Wild Bill". When it comes to "traditionalism" Utah St epitomizes it, and as an MU fan I envy and admire that program so much.

Just search Youtube for some clips on Utah State & their fans.  Wild Bill is always fun to watch... how many people can say they inspired their entire student section to sing "I'm a little teapot" AND got the shooter to miss a FT?

Their fans get into it - the cheers, the chants, everything.  And it's not just the students... it's everyone.  (Evidently the majority of their season ticket-holders aren't over the age of 60.)  For a low-major in the middle of nowhere, that's quite impressive in my book.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Pakuni, that Gonzaga financial report is not complete.  We've been through this a number of times with the MU one as well.  They are a private institution, they are not required to turn over those numbers which are qualified by the source.

I figured since you were so good at identifying who isn't top 25 worthy, you could share additional sage advice and let us know who the proper top 25 should be.  We would all benefit.