[Cracked Sidewalks] South Florida - Pace and the Press

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

South Florida - Pace and the Press

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (Rob Lowe)

To recap, a week ago we covered a guest post from Blackheart about how teams could break down MU's defense by slowing down the pace.  In the first half, which ended with Marquette being down 31-24, any idea how effectively USF was able to slow down the pace?




Holy crap!  If extrapolated, the first half was played at a pace of 48 possessions.  Do you know how slow that is?  (tangent, I went to look up the slowest pace in D1 and it's actually Wisconsin.  That made me laugh.  Because. Big. Ten. basketball. is.  so.  boring.  and.  Wisconsin.  is.  the.  worst.)  So the slowest-paced team in the nation averages 58 possessions per game, and even their slowest game was 50 possessions.   The first half was at an even slower pace than that.  cripes.

As predicted by Blackheart, Marquette's defense was terrible at such a slow pace.  USF (mind you, a team that averages 1.01 ppp, scored 1.29 ppp in the first half, and had an eFG% of 79%!)  Also, as John Pudner highlighted, USF was all over the offensive boards.  The only good news for MU was that USF was sloppy with the ball.

Now, obviously Marquette rallied from 16 down to win, but instead of posting the 2H stats, I want to build more on the period during which Marquette was pressing.  From Rosiak's blog post after the game, he mentioned that the press started around 14:18 left and MU down by sixteen.  We ran the numbers from that point on until Crowder hit the final three of the game (1:36 left)



 Yet again the press proved to be effective both offensively and defensively.  During this almost thirteen minute stretch, MU held USF to 0.55 ppp and 30% eFG%.  If the pace for this period is extrapolated to 40 minutes, it results in a tempo of 68 possessions.  That's right around average.

Also, note that the press was actually less effective than the 1H defense at forcing turnovers.  In addition, Marquette still was able to take remarkably good care of the ball, only coughing up a turnover once.  In other words, the conventional wisdom about the press, where it causes more turnovers on both sides of the ball, was not accurate.  The primary benefit for Marquette was to succeed in playing better defense and increasing the tempo.

Yet again we ask "Should Marquette Press More?".  Here's your running tally for two games of featuring the press.




Solid numbers all across the board.  Just about the only area that is worse is our opponents' Free Throw Rate.  Good thing that's practically insignificant to defense.  We also continue to  believe that it's not a sustained defense, but definitely a strong  counter (think first half, Buzz) to an opponent attempting to slow down  the pace.  To the question of if Marquette should press more... yet again the answer comes back "Yes".

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2011/02/south-florida-pace-and-press.html

[rocky_warrior]

So...how much press should MU play?  My first stab would be about 7-8 sustained minutes of press each half.  But that's just a stab, to keep our guys fresh, and change up the game enough, but not too much.

[Tugg Speedman]

Buzz gets it ... he said in the post game with Homer that the "Helter Skelter" press was effective both against USF and even in the 2H of 'nova.  He suggested we are going to see a lot more if it.

[marquette99]

The other question is do we need to go deeper in the bench.  I say yes.  Blue is a real asset when we are pressing, and once the pace is picked up he does have some value on offense as painful as the jumper is to watch.  So he plays more - but do we have to get more guys off the bench to get even more minutes of pressing into the game?  I think so, and my hope coming into this year that we might see the kind of dominance we saw in the orlando tournament last year, but with the depth to not run out of gas.

[Dr. Blackheart]

A 29-11 run utilizing the press out of a Buzz time out at 14:10. Against both teams, MU was getting beat inside with a small line-up when Buzz decided to extend the floor to neutralize the opponents bigs. Jimmy (+16), Junior (+9) and Jae (+8) really were the ones who were the most effective vs. USF. Fitzpatrick and Gilchrist had 10 turnovers between them.  

Very insightful Henry tying all of this together.

[PGsHeroes32]

We dont need to go deeper in the bench, we just need to get USF type minutes out of guys like Fulce if we are going to press. I thought he played real well. Junior and Vander will see even more time as well, and Davante will get some action spelling Otule like he has recently.

[mug644]

We dont need to go deeper in the bench, we just need to get USF type minutes out of guys like Fulce if we are going to press. I thought he played real well. Junior and Vander will see even more time as well, and Davante will get some action spelling Otule like he has recently.

Has Davante been on the court when MU is pressing? Does he have the quickness and stamina to be effective when pressing?

[PGsHeroes32]

Has Davante been on the court when MU is pressing? Does he have the quickness and stamina to be effective when pressing?

Probably not. He doesnt need to be. Point is, if we press were going to get tired so Davante is going to get more minutes throughout the game most likely during times we dont press.

[Henry Sugar]

So...how much press should MU play?  My first stab would be about 7-8 sustained minutes of press each half.  But that's just a stab, to keep our guys fresh, and change up the game enough, but not too much.

This is a good question.  My initial thought was a timeout to timeout strategy a few times per half, or about the same amount you are talking about.  I also like just switching it up randomly out of timeouts to keep the other team out of kilter.

There's probably some balance between running the press and the increased foul rate.  Although I bag on defensive FTR as practically insignificant, there is a risk of more fouls causing our better players to sit.  Maybe I'll take another look through the PBP info to see if there's anything interesting there.

[GGGG]

The other question is do we need to go deeper in the bench.  I say yes. 

I doubt it.  Some guys are just going to have to go longer minutes at a stretch.  (Like Fulce.)  The problem is that if you press with guys that already have "defensive issues," like Jones and Williams, you are going to magnify those issues big time.

[mu03eng]

The other question is do we need to go deeper in the bench.  I say yes.  Blue is a real asset when we are pressing, and once the pace is picked up he does have some value on offense as painful as the jumper is to watch.  So he plays more - but do we have to get more guys off the bench to get even more minutes of pressing into the game?  I think so, and my hope coming into this year that we might see the kind of dominance we saw in the orlando tournament last year, but with the depth to not run out of gas.

Going deeper to press longer would be detrimental.  As Henry points out we are pressing because our offense can outscore the easy buckets given up in the press.  However, I would think if we went deeper our offense would struggle negating the advantage.

I would think there are only certain line-ups we can press with and if Otule/Gardner are in I don't think we press.  My question is will coaches pick up on this and be able to adjust/expect the press?  And if they do expect the press, can they actually do anything to counter it.

[NotAnAlum]

While I agree with the idea of pressing more I think you've got to be careful using the USF game example applied to the rest of the BE.  I'm pretty sure USF has the worst backcourt in the BE, has only one guy who can handle the ball in the open court and is extremely turnover prone in general.  That is the prefect team to press.  Not sure how it would work against a team with a couple of BE quality guards.  It might get shreaded.  MU did a great job of forcing the ball to be inbounded to a big man who would not advance the ball.  That made the press much more effective.  
Also in the first half MU was simply terrible at finishing shots.  I don't think its possible to miss more easy layups.  If we play like that again it wouldn't matter if we played 7 on 5, we'd lose.  Hopefully that was our cold game for the year but from my point of view it was more a case of terrrible execution.

[rocky_warrior]

 Not sure how it would work against a team with a couple of BE quality guards.  It might get shreaded.  

You mean, like Villanova?  Did you read the first post?

[NYWarrior]

 Not sure how it would work against a team with a couple of BE quality guards.  It might get shreaded.

The press was the reason MU almost stole the game at Villanova (ie, very good backcourt on the road).

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2011/02/should-marquette-press-more.html

[Tugg Speedman]

You mean, like Villanova?  Did you read the first post?

Yes I was going to say the same ... it's work against 'nova and they have great ball handlers.  Remember we came from 14 down to 3 down with the ball (but no closer) when we pressed 'nova in the second half.

As noted in the Georgetown post:
http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=24343.0

Noticed in the BE stats who is just ahead of last place USF in turnover margin. That's right, GT is the surprising answer.

Georgetown vulnerable to the press and a team full of athletic "switchables" like MU is the perfect team to do it.

[T-Bone]

Has Davante been on the court when MU is pressing? Does he have the quickness and stamina to be effective when pressing?

The way the press has looked, it doesn't appear that it is particularly taxing on Otule and Ox, other than getting down the court to establish a presence in the lane.  The primary role they seem to be playing is to prevent the easy basket and rebound on the long-ish jumper, and that's if the other four aren't getting back down the court. 
I think Otule and Ox will be fine, and even Fulce, as the 5th man conditioning wise over 7-10 minutes a half running a press.  Full game pressing?  Well that might push 'em a little too much.

The really great thing in all this, is that we have found another weapon Buzz didn't realize was in his arsenal a month ago (for all practical purposes).  Which also changes the scouting report on us, and perhaps makes us more difficult to prepare for.

[THRILLHO]

I doubt it.  Some guys are just going to have to go longer minutes at a stretch.  (Like Fulce.)  The problem is that if you press with guys that already have "defensive issues," like Jones and Williams, you are going to magnify those issues big time.

The flipside of this is the theory that we struggle with legs if we press with a short bench.  Case in point, 7 consecutive missed free throws at the end of the game.  If you believe this theory has any merit late game misses have to trade off against potentially worse defense. I think there is less concern about Jones and EWill's abilities to contribute offensively.

But I also am skeptical (or at least withholding judgement) that a press would magnify JJ and EW's defensive shortcomings.  Doesn't it put their best attributes (length, athleticism) into play more while decreasing the impact of their shortcomings (inability to play structured defensive system against a structured offensive system).

Finally, I noticed that once we played the press, our defensive intensity seemed better overall - like we're the ones taking control.  I think this aspect of the press is potentially beneficial, but also tiring, since everybody seems to be playing harder in the half court.

[GGGG]

I gotta admit thrill...you make very good points.

[MerrittsMustache]

Take the effectiveness of the press vs. Nova with a grain of salt. In all likelihood, Jay Wright didn't prepare much (if at all) for MU's press. The more MU presses, the more opposing coaches will scout it and prepare for it. That doesn't mean it can't or won't be effective, but it's doubtful that any opponent is going to be caught off guard by it.

Besides, if MU plays an entire 40 minutes with the same sense of urgency they've played with while pressing in their last 2 games, they're going to get a lot of W's.

[Henry Sugar]

I gotta admit thrill...you make very good points.

+1 - particularly on maximizing strengths vs minimizing weaknesses

I still believe that the primary value of the press is that it simplifies the defensive approach while increasing the overall tempo of the game.  Nobody has to worry about switching or help defense.  I don't think there is much value in the press to try and force turnovers.

[Big Daddy 84]

Ewill would fit perfectly as the backside guy on the press. His shot blocking skills are above average and if he takes a few fouls it is not a significant loss...I hope this because a means to get him a few minutes a game in a position that takes advantages of his strengths.

[mu03eng]

I think its a question of which are you doing in greater quantity, simplifying or making things faster.

I think we all agree our standard game is too much for Mellow and EWill.  For whatever reason they are not ready to contribute on the offensive and defensive end.  I will contend that the speed of the game plus the complexity are too much for them.

If you go to the press you are reducing the complexity of the game, but you are also speeding up the thought process.  So if simpler generates positive results for them and faster generates negative results, does pressing make the delta between simple and fast a positive one.

Right now, I don't think it does.

[NotAnAlum]

Georgetown vulnerable to the press and a team full of athletic "switchables" like MU is the perfect team to do it.

What the heck, go for it.  G-town likes play deliberate offense with back door cuts etc.  Speed the game up on them and see what happens.  We have nothing to lose.  But the key for MU is to make shots, not only because we need the points but it lets us set up the press.  We can't execute like we did for the majority of the game in Tampa. Against SFU after we had closed the gap to close to even we took a couple bad shots (Joe  and Vander each had one as I recall).  We then couldn't press which allowed SFU to get their feet on the ground and get into their offense.  They didn't make us pay because they are SFU.  It will be a difference story against G-town.