[Cracked Sidewalks] USF's big 3 will crash offensive boards to try to repeat upset

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

USF's big 3 will crash offensive boards to try to repeat upset

Written by: jpudner@concentricgrasstops.com (bamamarquettefan1)

A big reason MU is on pace for an 8-seed in the NCAA tournament (Lunardi and Forecast RPI) is because they look so good in the eyeball test as one of the few teams in the country with no double digit losses and no "bad losses" (non-top 100 RPI).

On Wednesday, Davante Gardner returns his second choice and MU returns to USF for the first time since being knocked out of the Top 10 in a shocking upset two years ago yesterday.

What makes USF dangerous is that they are MUs fifth opponent to be dominant on the offensive glass, and MU has looked bad against three of the other four.

Looking at the other games in which MU played against a team ranked in the top 25 in offensive rebounding, MU did register a big win over West Virginia, but lost by its biggest margin of the year to both Pitt and UConn and had its most only loss to a non-RPI Top 25 team in Gonzaga.

3 big offensive rebounders

S. Florida has three big men who crash the boards very well in 4-star Maryland transfer Augustus Gilcrest (6-foot-10), K-State transfer Ron Anderson (6-8) and the 27th best offensive rebounder in the country in Jarrid Famous (6-11).  Gilcrest and Wisconsin's Jon Leuer were considered the most similar players by Rivals.

MU clearly has the overall edge in talent, as the inconsistent Gilchrist is the only 4-star recruit on the Bulls squad.  

USF has played well enough to beat MU in 5 of 15 games

Looking at Sagarins ratings (MU = 85, USF = 75, but give USF 4 points for home court), the Bulls have played well enough to beat an average MU road performance in 5 of their 15 games against top 100 foes so far.  More troubling is that USF has played well enough to beat MU in 4 of their last 9 games.

Based on Sagarin’s ratings, here are the key performances during the five games during which USF would have beaten an “average” MU team on the road this year:

1. vs. BYU.  USF took BYU to overtime on a neutral court behind Anderson (8 points, 13 rebounds) and Gilcrest (14,5) early in the year.

2. vs. UConn.  Gilcrest may be the biggest variable.  In 2007, he reneged on his verbal to Virginia Tech to go to Maryland, but then went to USF after the ACC was going to forfeit a year of eligibility for the intra conference transfer.  Gilcrest sat out three games earlier this year for unspecified reasons, but then re-emerged at UConn with a dominant 21,8 performance in an overtime loss.

3. vs. Cincy.  The three combined for a very balanced 33,19 in a close loss at Cincy.

4. vs. Providence.  It was then Famous who stepped up with a 15,11 to beat Providence, with good balance from Gilcrest (10,7) and Anderson (8,6).

5. vs. WVU.  Gilcrest was huge again with a 20,10 in a strong showing at WVU at which Anderson also grabbed 10 rebounds.

The 10 games against top 100 foes during which USF did not play well enough to beat MU include Gilcrest’s 25,10 in a losing effort against Louisville.  USF had played very well in four of five games before getting destroyed by Syracuse Saturday in their worst performance of the year.

If MU can make USF play small and/or keep them from dominating their offensive boards while keeping Crowder and Otule out of foul trouble against the bigger opponents, MU can certainly fly out of Florida much happier than they did on the last trip and still on course for an NCAA bid.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2011/02/usfs-big-3-will-crash-offensive-boards.html

[brewcity77]

Ugh, this makes USF look like a much more daunting foe. Oh well, there's no easy outs in the Big East (except for DePaul). I think the most important factor will be Otule staying out of foul trouble. They will make our lives tough if he isn't in there to eat space, as his presence is often enough to influence rebounds, even if he doesn't get to them himself.

If he can't, I think our best bet is to run and gun them to death. Play as fast as possible and hope they can't keep up. But playing that way on the road often can be reckless and lead to turnovers and cheap fouls by being overly aggressive.

Big game. Beat USF and Seton Hall on the road and we're in good shape if we take care of business at home.

[PGsHeroes32]

Play exactly the way we did against Louisville. I can gurantee we dont collapse like that again. The first 30 minutes of that were a clinic. We went right at every Ville player over 6'8 and had them all rotating to the bench in foul trouble. Do the same to Famous and Gilchrist then Brown.


Get them in foul trouble and we roll. Play dumb with turnovers and crappy rebounding, dogfight.

[brewcity77]

Play exactly the way we did against Louisville. I can gurantee we dont collapse like that again. The first 30 minutes of that were a clinic. We went right at every Ville player over 6'8 and had them all rotating to the bench in foul trouble. Do the same to Famous and Gilchrist then Brown.


Get them in foul trouble and we roll. Play dumb with turnovers and crappy rebounding, dogfight.

But Louisville's a completely different team. Yes, we wore down their bigs and got them in foul trouble, but they can afford that. Four of their top five scorers are guards. They are designed to play a perimeter game, and can afford to foul because they don't rely on their bigs as much in the offense.

South Florida, on the other hand, orients their offense around their bigs. Between Gilchrist and Famous, they have only had one foul-out this year. Anderson is a bit easier, he's fouled out 5 times this year, but not at all in the past 9 games, and in the past 7 he's only committed 12 fouls.

I think we should be worrying a lot more about the fouls Otule and Gardner commit than the ones we're able to get on USF's big three.

[79Warrior]

Ugh, this makes USF look like a much more daunting foe. Oh well, there's no easy outs in the Big East (except for DePaul). I think the most important factor will be Otule staying out of foul trouble. They will make our lives tough if he isn't in there to eat space, as his presence is often enough to influence rebounds, even if he doesn't get to them himself.

If he can't, I think our best bet is to run and gun them to death. Play as fast as possible and hope they can't keep up. But playing that way on the road often can be reckless and lead to turnovers and cheap fouls by being overly aggressive.

Big game. Beat USF and Seton Hall on the road and we're in good shape if we take care of business at home.

They are 8-16. give me a break. If we cannot win this game then we are a lock for the NIT.

[brewcity77]

They are 8-16. give me a break. If we cannot win this game then we are a lock for the NIT.

And they were 7-14 when they beat us down there 2 years ago and we were the 8th ranked team in the country. Records don't win games, players, coaches, and matchups do. And up front, we don't seem to match up well with USF.

We should win, but it's hardly a given.

[marquette99]

Agree completely with brewcity.  On the road we are a 6-point favorite.  Hardly a gimme.

A lock for the nit if we lose?  Hugely disappointing yes, but are you kidding?  We drop from our current 8-seed projection to out-of-the-tournament if we lose a road game to a team that took uconn and byu?  79, that's just silly.  Sure, it could move us toward a very weak bubble and put pressure on us in future games.  But the 20 teams we'd have to drop below to be out of the tournament alnost all have at least one loss worst than at usf would be.

[dsfire]

I know there was the analysis recently on home court advantage that determined it's almost completely due to getting favorable calls, but I don't think USF's home advantage is worth the same as most of the rest of the conference.  They must've had some huge promotion to get 10k attendance for Syracuse... their previous 4 BE home games this season garnered the following crowds:

• 1/27 DePaul: 3465
• 1/16 Providence: 3526
• 1/9 Louisville: 4375
• 1/6 #7 Villanova: 4510

I seem to remember their crowds even being brutal when Dominique Jones was attempting to get them back in the NCAAs for the first time in nearly 20 years.

[downtown85]

I watched the Syracuse-USF game.  USF is not very good.  They have a couple nice bigs but they don't seem to have any team chemistry.   We should beat them soundly. 

[Lennys Tap]

They are 8-16. give me a break. If we cannot win this game then we are a lock for the NIT.

Last year when we lost to DePaul on the the road we were a lock for the NIT (or worse) according to our more half empty posters. The team decided to finish the season anyway and somehow ended up a 6 seed.

That said, this is a very important game to win.

[Skatastrophy]

That said, this is a very important game to win.

Every BEast road game against teams we *should* beat is.

I don't take any conference game for granted after that DePaul game last year. 

[rocky_warrior]

I don't take any conference game for granted after that DePaul game last year. 

Oh, so you're the one to blame for that one!  I never thought we'd get a confession out of you.

[Tom Crean's Tanning Bed]

I know there was the analysis recently on home court advantage that determined it's almost completely due to getting favorable calls, but I don't think USF's home advantage is worth the same as most of the rest of the conference.  They must've had some huge promotion to get 10k attendance for Syracuse... their previous 4 BE home games this season garnered the following crowds:

• 1/27 DePaul: 3465
• 1/16 Providence: 3526
• 1/9 Louisville: 4375
• 1/6 #7 Villanova: 4510

I seem to remember their crowds even being brutal when Dominique Jones was attempting to get them back in the NCAAs for the first time in nearly 20 years.

Actually, they moved the Syracuse game downtown to the St. Pete Times Forum, so the crowd was about 70% Syracuse fans.