This one is for the clowns who say 10-8 is iffy for the tourney...

[PGsHeroes32]

I have already expressed how crazy anyone who thinks we need 11-7 to be lock is, but I think the latest bracketology proves how god awful this bubble really is.

My two favorite teams went a combined 0-3 this week and moved up 1 spot total. Yes, MU moved from 9-8 with 1 loss and the Gophers stayed at an 8 after a 0-2 week.

If anyone in there right mind still thinks that 10-8 or probably even 9-9 are not good enough....see a shrink.

Avoid the terrible loss to USF and were basically in as sad as it sounds.

[Mr. Nielsen]

You could've said it any better! 9-9 will get MU in the Big Dance.

USF, this Wednesday is one of the biggest games of the year for MU. Avoid a bad loss and you are a LOCK for the dance.

[BrewCity83]

Not a lock yet.  Looking better, but 6-5 is not a lock.  Get to 10 wins and then we can start talking about a lock.

[Mr. Nielsen]

Avoid a bad RPI loss, which is the game this Wednesday and end up 9-9 or better in BE play, MU is a lock for the dance.

[ATL MU Warrior]

Avoid a bad RPI loss, which is the game this Wednesday and end up 9-9 or better in BE play, MU is a lock for the dance.

i agree with you but i'd rather not test this theory 

[Marquette84]

I have already expressed how crazy anyone who thinks we need 11-7 to be lock is, but I think the latest bracketology proves how god awful this bubble really is.

To be fair, you're using comments that have been made over the course of the last month--before all those losses started piling up for teams that were thought of locks at the start of the conference season.  I don't think anyone based their comments on an expectation that so many teams from so many major conferences would be collapsing at the very same time that so few of the mid-major conferences are distinguishing themselves.

In other words, it looks like we may sneak into the NCAA (and get a reasonably high seed) as the 10th or 11th place Big East team based on a perfect storm of rapidly deteriorating performance across the B12, B10, Pac 10, ACC and SEC; coupled an unusual lack of quality teams in the Horizon, A10, CUSA, MWC, or MVC that might otherwise step up.   

For example, you mention Minnesota.  I think prior to the start of conference play, people would have looked at their tournament win in Puerto Rico and an overall 11-1 non-conference record as evidence that they are a likely tournament team.  Nobody anticipated that they would be sitting on a sub-500 record in conference play 2/3 of the way into the season.

[Lennys Tap]

In other words, it looks like we may sneak into the NCAA (and get a reasonably high seed) as the 10th or 11th place Big East team

You can't "sneak into the NCAA" and also get a reasonably high seed. The "sneakers", or bubble teams, are the lowest seeded of the at large teams.

[Marquette84]

You can't "sneak into the NCAA" and also get a reasonably high seed. The "sneakers", or bubble teams, are the lowest seeded of the at large teams.

Most would agree that finishing 10th or 11th in the Big East is not normally a lock for an 8 seed.

Hence the "sneak in with a relatively high seed" comment.

If you disagree, can you tell me when a 10th or 11th place team in the BE has even MADE the tournament?

[Pakuni]

If you disagree, can you tell me when a 10th or 11th place team in the BE has even MADE the tournament?

Around the same time a team with 9 or more conference wins finished in 10th or 11th place in the Big East.
Which is to say, never.

[NavinRJohnson]

Correct. This is all so silly (especially with nearly half the schedule to play). If MU is going to finish 10th or 11th, it would mean that will win 2, maybe 3 of their remaining 8 games. If they do that, they aren't going anywhere near the NCAA tournament. If they get to 9...10...11 wins they will finish well in the upper half, and will deserve and receive a bid.

[Fullodds]

We have no quality road wins and will need 10+ wins to make the dance.  9-9 and we are in the NIT in my opinion.  We just don't have enough quality wins and nothing on the road.  No bad losses means that we have time to play in or out of the dance.  Enjoy the next month and hopefully we can hold serve at the BC and win a couple on the road.

[Tugg Speedman]

We had a poll on this at the start of the BE season back on December 30
http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=23161.msg255871#msg255871

90 voted.

0% said 9 wins
24% said 10 wins
39% said 11 wins
37% said 12 or more wins

Highlights

Ners - My vote is 11
Chren21 - 11 with a tourney win is bigtime bubble, but in.
IAmMarquette - 12 conference wins including one in the BET is the BARE MINIMUM.
brewcity77 - We need at least 12 conference wins
chapman - 12, or 11 +1 in the tournament will get us in
AnotherMU84 - Bottom line, you're all too high.  9 or 10 wins can get us in as it means we have to beat a couple of ranked opponents to even get 9 wins.
Willie Warrior - Based on how we are playing right now, 9-9 looks good
MuMark - Anyone who thinks it will take 12 or 13 needs to put down the crack pipe.
chren21 - another reason I agree with brew is I just don think the committee will take more than 8 from the BE.
brewcity77 - t this point, looking only at the upcoming conference schedule, it will take 12 Big East wins. 11 may be enough. 10 most likely won't be enough. 9 will not be enough. The number that guarantees an NCAA berth is 12.

---

I will stick with what I said above.  No change at all.

When the rest of your are done posting your micro-analysis of why Buzz cannot do anything right, please defend these predictions.

Could it be that 9 wins gets us in and all 90 voters were wrong?   (I voted for 10)

[Lennys Tap]

Most would agree that finishing 10th or 11th in the Big East is not normally a lock for an 8 seed.

Hence the "sneak in with a relatively high seed" comment.

If you disagree, can you tell me when a 10th or 11th place team in the BE has even MADE the tournament?

I just think it's absurd to say that a team that makes it in ahead of 16-19 others tournament teams "sneaks in", regardless of conference standings. If an 8 seed sneaks in, an 11 or 12 should be arrested for breaking and entering.

[PGsHeroes32]

How would 9-9 not be enough? We are 5-5 right now and an 8 seed. Going 4-4 in the next 8 wont drop you past like 16 teams, especially if going 0-1 has actually raised us recently.

Going 4-4 at the very worst would give us 2 road wins with Seton Hall and USF while beating Providence and Seton Hall again. Now if we lose to Hall on the road it means we beat fellow bubble St Johns or Cincy or possible the HUGE road win. That all would be enough.

5-3(10-8) makes us sit with a smile on selection sunday as it at the very worst gives us 4 non resume wins but 2 on the road along with a  win against a bubble team/huge road win.

its not pretty but if we go 4-4 we are in. MIGHT need to win that 1st BET game though. That would help. So poss 5-4.

[avid1010]

I will stick with what I said above.  No change at all.

When the rest of your are done posting your micro-analysis of why Buzz cannot do anything right, please defend these predictions.

Could it be that 9 wins gets us in and all 90 voters were wrong?   (I voted for 10)

Wouldn't it be easier to just post "I told you so "

[Marquette84]

I just think it's absurd to say that a team that makes it in ahead of 16-19 others tournament teams "sneaks in", regardless of conference standings. If an 8 seed sneaks in, an 11 or 12 should be arrested for breaking and entering.

And the fact that those other 16-19 teams (plus the next 20 or so) are all having a historically bad season in exactly the same year is what enables us to sneak in with a relatively high seed and a 10th or 11th place finish.

I think its absurd to think that in any normal convergence of events that we'd be even talking about making the tournament, no less an 8 or 9 seed, with no quality non-conference wins and what could be a 10th or 11th place finish. 

Usually a team with our credentials isn't even in the mix.  Hence the "sneak" comment. 

[MarquetteDano]

After the non-con season but before Big East season, I thought we would have to be 11-7 to make it since our non-con was pretty weak.

Now I agree 10-8 would be looking really good given what has happened around the country.

I think some of the problem is people saying "we are in at 10-8" doesn't mean the same thing to all people.  For some people "we are in" means they would be willing to bet $1,000 at 1-5 odds that we are in because they feel it is a total lock and would be willing to put money where their mouth is.

For others, "we are in" means that they would be relatively comfortable on Selection Sunday, but in no way would they be willing to bet big money (i.e. they are not truly confident).

I am of the former variety who, when I say "IN", I mean "IN", and would be willing to bet money.  And for me to feel 100% comfortable on Selection Sunday, I would feel much more comfortable with 20 wins this year, which would mean 11-7 with no wins in the Big East tourney, 10-8 and one win in the Big East tourney, or 9-9 with two BET wins.

If that makes me a "clown" than so be it.  

[brewcity77]

brewcity77 - At this point, looking only at the upcoming conference schedule, it will take 12 Big East wins. 11 may be enough. 10 most likely won't be enough. 9 will not be enough. The number that guarantees an NCAA berth is 12.

In a normal year, I think what I said before would be accurate. But as this bubble gets softer and softer, and the ACC, SEC, PAC-10, and even Big Ten start to look weaker and weaker, I've definitely changed my opinion. 11 will definitely be enough. I'd even say 10 would make us a lock. What gets me is that I'm starting to think that 9 might be more than enough. The field is so bad, 8-10 might get us in. I doubt it because of the lack of a solid non-con or road win, but it wouldn't surprise me if an 8-10 Big East team (maybe if Georgetown went 8-10) did get in.

Our conference is pretty much a lock for 10 bids, and I'm expecting 11. I wish it was a statement of how good the Big East is, but I think it's more an indictment of how bad the rest of the nation is.

[PGsHeroes32]

In a normal year, I think what I said before would be accurate. But as this bubble gets softer and softer, and the ACC, SEC, PAC-10, and even Big Ten start to look weaker and weaker, I've definitely changed my opinion. 11 will definitely be enough. I'd even say 10 would make us a lock. What gets me is that I'm starting to think that 9 might be more than enough. The field is so bad, 8-10 might get us in. I doubt it because of the lack of a solid non-con or road win, but it wouldn't surprise me if an 8-10 Big East team (maybe if Georgetown went 8-10) did get in.

Our conference is pretty much a lock for 10 bids, and I'm expecting 11. I wish it was a statement of how good the Big East is, but I think it's more an indictment of how bad the rest of the nation is.

Our conference is definitly looking like a lock for 10 and what im liking more and more is that most people see us as ahead of St Johns and Cincy either right now or before all is said and done. Win those 2 home games and we sit pretty.

[Lennys Tap]

And the fact that those other 16-19 teams (plus the next 20 or so) are all having a historically bad season in exactly the same year is what enables us to sneak in with a relatively high seed and a 10th or 11th place finish.

I think its absurd to think that in any normal convergence of events that we'd be even talking about making the tournament, no less an 8 or 9 seed, with no quality non-conference wins and what could be a 10th or 11th place finish. 

Usually a team with our credentials isn't even in the mix.  Hence the "sneak" comment. 

Who cares about other years? Irrelevant. Saying that more than 20 of the at large teams (is it 25, 30, or maybe ALL 37?) that will make it are "sneaking in" is wrong and silly.

[chren21]

I'll just say I was wrong.  Plain and simple.

[marquette99]

Haywardsheros - agree and have written that 10 total gets us in whether that was regular season or 9 + 1 tourney.  Remember though 8-seeds are based on projected 10-8 finish, no on "now". Cbssports actually put one out last week based on if season ended today, and had us as a 12-seed playin.

As for the comment on not enough quality wins yet, I noted last week we were only the 10th team in the country to register our 3rd win over a top 25 rpi, so don't see how that holds up as an objection.

[bilsu]

If we finish 9-9 it means we either lost to South Florida or another home game, Either one would be a bad loss. Having said that 9-9 gets us into one of the NCAA play in games as one of the bottom four at large teams..

[brewcity77]

If we finish 9-9 it means we either lost to South Florida or another home game, Either one would be a bad loss. Having said that 9-9 gets us into one of the NCAA play in games as one of the bottom four at large teams..

Or Seton Hall on the road, which is possible considering how they are playing of late.

[Pakuni]

Usually a team with our credentials isn't even in the mix.  Hence the "sneak" comment. 

Wait ... what?
A team sitting at 14-9, ranked #26 by Pomeroy with the 35th most difficult schedule in the country (28th per RPI), playing in the nation's top-ranked conference and with wins over three top 25 teams usually "isn't even in the mix?"
That's an odd one. Ranks right up there with suggesting that MU might win 9+ conference games and finish 11th in the Big East.