A Statistical Analysis of Last Night's Free Throws

[MUDPT]

I got to attend the Marquette versus the Old Spice Classic Champions (as the announcer put it last night) and was surprised by the free throw advantage for ND.  This was based on Buzz's philosophy and previous years results.  So I decided to run some numbers.

If I've done this correctly...
This year
Average:  We are a plus 7.714286
Standard Deviation:  13.99659823
Only on 7 data points (this year's conference games), last nights game was almost two standard deviations from the mean.  In other words, last night's game was just as likely as MU shooting 36 more free throws than their opponent in one game.  I think most of us would agree that that number would be a "homer" game for Marquette. The biggest advantage we have had in the last three years was +25 at home against Georgetown.

So now, only 7 data points.  What if we expand to Buzz's tenure in the Big East (43 games).
Average:  Plus 6.4186047
Standard Deviation: 9.429519399
Last night's game was 2.7 standard deviations away from the mean!  It would be if Marquette shot almost 32 more free throws than their opponent.  As you can see above, that has never happened in the last three years and is seven more than the most Marquette has ever shot over somebody.

Ok, but what about the home court advantage in the Big East?
Only road games (22 games).
Average: Plus 4.4545455
Standard Deviation: 8.91615587
Last night was 2.6 standard deviations away from the road mean.  Marquette would have had to have shot approximately 28 more free throws than their opponent to have it statistically equal.  This has never happened in the Big East for Marquette at home or on the road the last three years.

I'm not blaming the officials.  I don't think we could guard man to man for some reason last night, but last not was very statistically significant.

All of this is based on a normal bell shaped curve.  I think I did the stats right.

[HoopsMalone]

Nice analysis.  That game felt like an outlier game, and the facts back it up.

[Marquette84]

I got to attend the Marquette versus the Old Spice Classic Champions (as the announcer put it last night) and was surprised by the free throw advantage for ND.  This was based on Buzz's philosophy and previous years results.  So I decided to run some numbers.

If I've done this correctly...
This year
Average:  We are a plus 7.714286
Standard Deviation:  13.99659823
Only on 7 data points (this year's conference games), last nights game was almost two standard deviations from the mean.  In other words, last night's game was just as likely as MU shooting 36 more free throws than their opponent in one game.  I think most of us would agree that that number would be a "homer" game for Marquette. The biggest advantage we have had in the last three years was +25 at home against Georgetown.

So now, only 7 data points.  What if we expand to Buzz's tenure in the Big East (43 games).
Average:  Plus 6.4186047
Standard Deviation: 9.429519399
Last night's game was 2.7 standard deviations away from the mean!  It would be if Marquette shot almost 32 more free throws than their opponent.  As you can see above, that has never happened in the last three years and is seven more than the most Marquette has ever shot over somebody.

Ok, but what about the home court advantage in the Big East?
Only road games (22 games).
Average: Plus 4.4545455
Standard Deviation: 8.91615587
Last night was 2.6 standard deviations away from the road mean.  Marquette would have had to have shot approximately 28 more free throws than their opponent to have it statistically equal.  This has never happened in the Big East for Marquette at home or on the road the last three years.

I'm not blaming the officials.  I don't think we could guard man to man for some reason last night, but last not was very statistically significant.

All of this is based on a normal bell shaped curve.  I think I did the stats right.

Your analysis only works if Notre Dame was an average opponent.  Unfortunately, they are anything but.

Let's compare the two common opponents that we've had with Notre Dame:

Gonzaga
We shot 21 FTs to Gonzaga's 13.  We did a pretty good job of getting to the line while keeping them off.  
But not quite as good as Notre Dame, which went to the line 36 times and held Gonzaga to 12 attempts.

Wisconsin:
We shot 22 FTs to UW's 14.  Outstanding, considering Wisconsin's traditional advantage in the foul department.
But we weren't quite as outstanding as Notre Dame against Wisconsin--they shot 25 FTs, while UW shot only 4.  

In fact, the +21 FTA advantage that Notre Dame had on us last night is very similar to the +24 they had versus Gonzaga, the +21 versus Wisconsin, the +16 against Cincy, the +19 against UConn, the +28 against Cal, the +23 against Georgia.

The fact of the matter is that Buzz did not invent or perfect the strategy of keeping your opponent from the FT line while drawing fouls yourself.  Mike Brey is doing a better job than Buzz this year.

One more thing--did you consider that 8 of Notre Dame's attempts came in the final 1:13 as MU was intentionally putting them on the line?

[77ncaachamps]

But of the two teams, the Zags were the only ones they played at home.

Wisconsin was on a neutral court.

[MUDPT]

I did consider the fact that we were trying to foul and thought that it was only 6 extra.  However if I was comparing out of 43 games, I didn't have the time to go back and figure out each game when "the foul game" (as my wife puts it) usually starts.  It was interesting to note that our largest deficit at home in the last 3 years was Notre Dame last year in the OT loss.

[brewcity77]

But if ND is better than us at FTA differential, it's not a surprise or even necessarily a deviation. That's what 84 is saying. It's not fair to only use MU's data without factoring in ND's own average advantage at the line. Especially if they've shown they can exercise that advantage over us on more than one occasion.

[Dr. Blackheart]

This game represented the fourth highest FT Rate game for Notre Dame in 15 years and highest since the 2005-06 season--but many of ND's games this year are right behind this one.  And it was MU's third highest opposing team free throw rate against us.  Out of the norm for both but not really for ND this year.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/games/stats?season1=1996&season2=2010&conf=&team=notre-dame&stat=ft_rate_pct

That said, Eddie Hightower has the highest homer rate of active referees over that time.  

http://statsheet.com/mcb/referees/stats?id=largest_home_margin&min=200&season=since-1996&submit=Go

In the end, MU needs a defense designed to make stops and not just to create turnovers and disrupt offensive efficiency...that is one consistent especially on the road.  This was our third worst defensive efficiency game over these past 15...and no, it wasn't all due to free throws...60% eFG%.  Hansbrough lay-up practice has to end.

[ChicosBailBonds]

But if ND is better than us at FTA differential, it's not a surprise or even necessarily a deviation. That's what 84 is saying. It's not fair to only use MU's data without factoring in ND's own average advantage at the line. Especially if they've shown they can exercise that advantage over us on more than one occasion.

That's exactly right.  It's a deviation for MU, but it's not a deviation for Notre Dame....and that is the key.