Jae Crowder

[ATL MU Warrior]

I will go back and look at the Vandy game and get back to you.  I asked for actual stats/facts.  I know this is just a fan board made up mostly of opinions but sometimes it's helpful back up your opinions.  Gardner gets as many or more rebounds per minute than anyone on our team.  Please tell me who these great rebounders are we have on this years team.

I am not one of the stats gurus on this board.  I've never been to any of the sites they reference.  I trust my own knowledge of basketball to form my opinions.  Besides, I don't know of any stats that would quantify how much of a liability Gardner is to the team from a defensive POV. 

Rebounds per minute is a nice stat I guess, but it doesn't tell you squat about how many offensive rebounds/2nd chance points are given up by Gardner, how many points are scored by the opposing player while he is guarding him, his inability to move laterally and quickly to help defend a pentrating player, etc. etc. etc.

I'm not trying to single out Gardner, I like him as a player and I think he's going to be a good player for us if he can get his body right.  But right now, in my opinion based on watching the games, he's clearly a defensive liability when matched up against a mobile, athletic big guy.  Otule is a much better option. 

[MarquetteDano]

I will go back and look at the Vandy game and get back to you.  I asked for actual stats/facts.  I know this is just a fan board made up mostly of opinions but sometimes it's helpful back up your opinions.  Gardner gets as many or more rebounds per minute than anyone on our team.  Please tell me who these great rebounders are we have on this years team.

From a purely stat standpoint, I would be looking at DEFENSIVE rebounds per minute for Gardner.  He is a decent offensive rebounder but not as good on the defensive side which everyone is talking about.  If you use that stat, Crowder and Fulce blow Gardner away.  And Crowder has been in much more difficult parts of the game.  A bulk of Gardner's minutes have been garbage time.

To guard quicker post players when Otule is out, Fulce is the best option if healthy.  If the post is slow, I do like Davante to get some minutes provided he is doing is job boxing out and rebounding.

[denverMU]

First, I went back and looked at the Vandy game.  In 3 minutes, he scored on his only shot, blocked 1 shot, and his man had 2 off. rebounds and scored once.  Not exactly a terrible disadvantage of a player who should get zero minutes against WV.  As far as def./off. rebounds per minute he stacks up quite well against Crowder and Fulce.  Crowder (off/def rpm) .1/.16  Gardner .12/.14  Fulce .09/.24 I don't think we have anybody who stacks up well against quick, mobile, big men.  My main point is Gardner is a very good low post offensive player, he catches passes and passes back out well, he draws fouls on the other teams big men and he makes free throw.  I think he deserves to play more.

[mviale]

First, I went back and looked at the Vandy game.  In 3 minutes, he scored on his only shot, blocked 1 shot, and his man had 2 off. rebounds and scored once.  Not exactly a terrible disadvantage of a player who should get zero minutes against WV.  As far as def./off. rebounds per minute he stacks up quite well against Crowder and Fulce.  Crowder (off/def rpm) .1/.16  Gardner .12/.14  Fulce .09/.24 I don't think we have anybody who stacks up well against quick, mobile, big men.  My main point is Gardner is a very good low post offensive player, he catches passes and passes back out well, he draws fouls on the other teams big men and he makes free throw.  I think he deserves to play more.

I bet Buzz starts Gardner after reading this.

[dgies9156]

I will go back and look at the Vandy game and get back to you.  I asked for actual stats/facts.  I know this is just a fan board made up mostly of opinions but sometimes it's helpful back up your opinions.  Gardner gets as many or more rebounds per minute than anyone on our team.  Please tell me who these great rebounders are we have on this years team.

Look, I was at the Vanderbilt game in Nashville. We lost the game because we could not solve a 2-3 defense early in the second half (and people wondered why Huggie Bear tried it Satursday) and because defensively, we were suckered way too many times. Jae was one of nine players who played and when you lose by that little, it is a TEAM loss.

Get it -- T-E-A-M loss. That means everybody did something to contribute, not just one player. I remember 1969 when Marquette was one Ric Cobb free throw away from the Final Four. Rick missed and my wise parents reminded me there were several lapses during the game where someone could have done something that would have prevented us from ever being in a position where Ric HAD to hit two free throws. Same here dudes. Same here.

Jae will be great and we'll do fine if we're patient and opportunistic. We were neither in Nashville and that's why we lost.

[denverMU]

I bet Buzz never plays Gardner again after reading this thread.

[MarquetteDano]

Since you such a stat guy KenPoms stats on Defensive Rebounding are much more reliable than what you are using (see link below).  Crowder has 18% DR while Fulce has a 31.4% DR rating.  Otule as a 16.9% DR rating.  Davante's is 15.7%.  KenPom uses legitimate defensive possessions including for missed shots while the player is in the game to determine which is much more reliable than simply taking defensive boards divded by minutes.

http://www.kenpom.com/team.php?team=Marquette

[denverMU]

I'm not a huge stat guy.  I just prefer facts to opinions and feelings.  The numbers I used were from MU's web site on year to date stats.  I keep reading on posts how bad a defensive player Gardner is and I disagree and I think his offense outweighs his defense.

[MarquetteDano]

I'm not a huge stat guy.  I just prefer facts to opinions and feelings.  The numbers I used were from MU's web site on year to date stats.  I keep reading on posts how bad a defensive player Gardner is and I disagree and I think his offense outweighs his defense.

The guy has got great footwork for his size and an amazing touch.  Evidently, he is a decent three point shooter as well.  He is going to be a really good player for us.  We don't win the Bucknell game without him.  He helped keep the Duke game close.

That said, he needs works on his defensive rebounding and help defense.  Once he does, he is going to be really good.  In the meantime, I hope he averages 10mpg and makes a difference in those minutes.

[denverMU]

The guy has got great footwork for his size and an amazing touch.  Evidently, he is a decent three point shooter as well.  He is going to be a really good player for us.  We don't win the Bucknell game without him.  He helped keep the Duke game close.

That said, he needs works on his defensive rebounding and help defense.  Once he does, he is going to be really good.  In the meantime, I hope he averages 10mpg and makes a difference in those minutes.

I couldn't agree more.  Also, thanks for the link.  I noticed Gardner has our top rating for offense and offensive rebounding.

[Aughnanure]

Ill agree with Denver here. He is not saying Gardner is the best player on the team, or always needs to be in. But the the promulgation of the idea that Gardner can play NO defense is fairly false. Is he liability on defense? Yes, and I think most agree with that. However, the question is HOW big of a liability. I just dont see that his D is as big of an issue as much as people here state it as pure fact.

I think people too often jump to conclusions for why people are not playing, and defense is an easy, hard to quantify aspect that can be pointed to conveniently. I think we've seen plenty of defenses lapses from many players, and maybe more from Gardner than anyone else. But I believe the difference he makes on offense, specifically half-court, is so significant and something no other player can remotely equal that his D should be somewhat overlooked.

His hands and footwork are fantastic, he looks more natural in his position than any freshman since Dom, and more than any big that I can remember. Just watching him on offense is just so refreshing for me, as this program has not seen that type of natural skill in a long time. That doenst mean I think he should be playing more than Otule, but that Im a little selfish cause I really enjoy seeing a big man who FINALLY looks like he knows what he's doing in the post.

A good offense helps your defense, especially one that can eat time.

[GGGG]

I think people too often jump to conclusions for why people are not playing, and defense is an easy, hard to quantify aspect that can be pointed to conveniently. I think we've seen plenty of defenses lapses from many players, and maybe more from Gardner than anyone else. But I believe the difference he makes on offense, specifically half-court, is so significant and something no other player can remotely equal that his D should be somewhat overlooked.

Defense might be hard to *quantify* but it is fairly easy to see when someone doesn't play it well.  And Gardner doesn't.  But I do agree with you that there are a number of people on this team that don't play very good defense too.

[Henry Sugar]

I'm not a huge stat guy.  I just prefer facts to opinions and feelings.  The numbers I used were from MU's web site on year to date stats.  I keep reading on posts how bad a defensive player Gardner is and I disagree and I think his offense outweighs his defense.

I have the ability to generate some stats showing net contributions as a factor of offensive and defensive stats.  My spreadsheet is all outdated so it'll take some time to work through.

[denverMU]

Great, I would love to see it.

[Henry Sugar]

Quick calcs

By my numbers (which may vary from Pomeroy's)

• Gardner has the #3 ORtg on the team at 128.
• His stop percentage (which is an aspect of defense that can be determined pretty accurately) is 55%.  It's worse than average, but not by much.
• His DRtg (which is really just an approximation) is worse than average, but again not by much.
• Gardner's net point contributions are 4th highest on the team (behind Crowder, Butler, and DJO).  With less usage than Vander and Buycks, he's more of a contributor.

The short answer to your question is that Gardner's offensive skills outweigh his defensive shortcomings.  At least that's what the stats say.

I'll save the rest for a CS post.  Free Ox!

[Skatastrophy]

This is getting back to Buzz's argument that Ox isn't conditioned as well as he should be.  He's done very well in late-game situations because the other bigs are in foul trouble and are tired so he doesn't have an issue keeping up at that point.

I don't have a dog in this fight, I just thought I'd bring it up sine Buzz thought it was important enough to mention.

[Benny B]

How relevant are these stats everyone is throwing out?  Do they take into account and adjust for the fact that Ox's minutes have primarily been against lesser opponents while Crowder has logged significantly more minutes against the likes of Duke, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, etc.

If so, can you explain how the adjustment is made/calculated?

If not, the numbers are meaningless.

[willie warrior]

How relevant are these stats everyone is throwing out?  Do they take into account and adjust for the fact that Ox's minutes have primarily been against lesser opponents while Crowder has logged significantly more minutes against the likes of Duke, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, etc.

If so, can you explain how the adjustment is made/calculated?

If not, the numbers are meaningless.

So are subjective opinions like Ox allows more offensive rebounds than Otule, or Otule covers his man better than Ox, or Ox is slow to his man. Look at the stats--or why do we have them?

[willie warrior]

Quick calcs

By my numbers (which may vary from Pomeroy's)

• Gardner has the #3 ORtg on the team at 128.
• His stop percentage (which is an aspect of defense that can be determined pretty accurately) is 55%.  It's worse than average, but not by much.
• His DRtg (which is really just an approximation) is worse than average, but again not by much.
• Gardner's net point contributions are 4th highest on the team (behind Crowder, Butler, and DJO).  With less usage than Vander and Buycks, he's more of a contributor.

The short answer to your question is that Gardner's offensive skills outweigh his defensive shortcomings.  At least that's what the stats say.

I'll save the rest for a CS post.  Free Ox!

Definitely agree with the "Free Ox"  chant. he should be playing 15 plus minutes per game, and will score more down low than Otule.

[Henry Sugar]

How relevant are these stats everyone is throwing out?  Do they take into account and adjust for the fact that Ox's minutes have primarily been against lesser opponents while Crowder has logged significantly more minutes against the likes of Duke, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, etc.

If so, can you explain how the adjustment is made/calculated?

If not, the numbers are meaningless.

Crowder has the best Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating on the team, as well as the most net points.

[Lennys Tap]

Crowder has the best Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating on the team, as well as the most net points.

The numbers for Ox are very interesting, but Benny's question remains. Are they skewed because such a high percentage of his minutes have come against cupcakes?

[Henry Sugar]

The numbers for Ox are very interesting, but Benny's question remains. Are they skewed because such a high percentage of his minutes have come against cupcakes?

Hard to say, really, but I don't think so.  Gardner's numbers are based on roughly 5% usage, which is pretty low.  He got 15 min against Duke, 7 Gonzaga, 18 against UW.  I don't think Ox's numbers have come primarily against lesser opponents, and they don't appear any more skewed than anyone else's. 

[willie warrior]

Hard to say, really, but I don't think so.  Gardner's numbers are based on roughly 5% usage, which is pretty low.  He got 15 min against Duke, 7 Gonzaga, 18 against UW.  I don't think Ox's numbers have come primarily against lesser opponents, and they don't appear any more skewed than anyone else's. 

He gets 15 minutes against Duke and 18 against UW, both quality opponents, and now he is relegated to the doghouse. What is wrong with that picture?

[Marquette84]

He gets 15 minutes against Duke and 18 against UW, both quality opponents, and now he is relegated to the doghouse. What is wrong with that picture?

We lost to Duke and Wisconsin.

[denverMU]

Henry Sugar, thanks for the great stats and thanks to everyone for keeping this a civil conversation.