Big East Wins Required to Make NCAA

[NersEllenson]

My vote is 11 - Think the BE as a whole has performed extremely well outside of conference.  MU's non-conference losses could very likely be to 4 Conference Champs - Duke, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Gonzaga - by a combined 14 points.

[chren21]

My vote is 11 - Think the BE as a whole has performed extremely well outside of conference.  MU's non-conference losses could very likely be to 4 Conference Champs - Duke, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Gonzaga - by a combined 14 points.

Above is assuming a first round BE tourney loss. That would be 20 wins. I don't think that does it.... 11 with a tourney win is bigtime bubble, but in.

[KipsBayEagle]

That hurts us as much as helps.  many of the big east teams we will be competing against for a spot will have 1 or 2 quality non conference wins on neutral sites making our chances much less

[IAmMarquette]

12 conference wins including one in the BET is the BARE MINIMUM.

[brewcity77]

We need at least 12 conference wins, I agree with that. If we get 12 in conference, we should be able to survive losing our first Big East tourney game. I think what many people are forgetting is that while we can pick up signature wins, getting 11 wins and 1-2 signature wins also likely means 1-2 bad losses to offset the big wins. Going 21-11 with 12-6 in conference would be the bare minimum. It would also help if 2-3 of those were over top ten teams. Though as it stands right now, we can only get 9 wins against unranked opponents.

Also, while I felt that Vandy was a must-win game, and still feel that it was (I'm expecting NIT now) we have virtually no chance if we don't beat West Virginia at home on Saturday. Needing to win 12 of 17, with 9 of those against top 20 teams, would be virtually unthinkable for this team right now. I'm still going to cheer for them every game, but we have a huge uphill climb that would become K2-like if we lost to WVU.

[chapman]

12, or 11 +1 in the tournament will get us in.  Probably 9 very tough games and 9 more winnable ones in the schedule.  So that means 3 "quality" wins are required, more if we slip up against DePaul again or lose to a middle/bottom team at home.

[brewcity77]

12, or 11 +1 in the tournament will get us in.  Probably 9 very tough games and 9 more winnable ones in the schedule.  So that means 3 "quality" wins are required, more if we slip up against DePaul again or lose to a middle/bottom team at home.

I think that's understating the difficulty of our schedule. I think it's safe to say that any game against a top 20 team is considered very tough, even at home. That's half of our Big East schedule. Add in road games, as well as home games against Cincy and West Virginia (both close to being ranked) and that gives us 14 games that should be classed as very tough, in my opinion.

This team needs to start winning against real opposition in a hurry, or this could be a very long season.

[willie warrior]

Pitt, Syracuse, No Dick, Villanova, Georgetown, Cinncy, WVa., Louisville etc. are all opportunities for us to make the NCAA.

[79Warrior]

My vote is 11 - Think the BE as a whole has performed extremely well outside of conference.  MU's non-conference losses could very likely be to 4 Conference Champs - Duke, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Gonzaga - by a combined 14 points.

don't get your fascination with how many points we have lost by. Fact is we lost. who cares by how much.

[Tugg Speedman]

12 conference wins including one in the BET is the BARE MINIMUM.

We have 18 BE games against 10 ranked opponents.  So to get to 12 we have to beat at least FOUR ranked teams along with sweeping the eight non ranked opponents.

On another note, the ACC is really down this year.  I bet they send 2 or 3 teams (one being Duke) instead of 6 to 8.  The BE benefits at the expense of the ACC and sets a record by sending 9 or 10 teams.  If so, some 9 and 9 BE team is going to the dance.  Why not us?

Bottom line, you're all too high.  9 or 10 wins can get us in as it means we have to beat a couple of ranked opponents to even get 9 wins.

[willie warrior]

We have 18 BE games against 10 ranked opponents.  So to get to 12 we have to beat at least FOUR ranked teams along with sweeping the eight non ranked opponents.

On another note, the ACC is really down this year.  I bet they send 2 or 3 teams (one being Duke) instead of 6 to 8.  The BE benefits at the expense of the ACC and sets a record by sending 9 or 10 teams.  If so, some 9 and 7 BE team is going to the dance.  Why not us?

Bottom line, you're all too high.  9 or 10 wins can get us in as it means we have to beat a couple of ranked opponents to even get 9.

I like your analysis, and you might be right. However, if we go 9-9 inconference, that would give us 18-13 overall, and that will likely not be enough, unless we have some big time quality wins over Syracuse, Pitt etc. And remember, just because we may get some quality wins, we may get some doofus losses also to balance it out. Based on how we are playing right now, 9-9 looks good.

[Tugg Speedman]

A followup to my analysis above ...

If we win "at least" 12 games, not only are we going to the NCAA tourney, we are probably ranked at the end of the season and getting a #5 or #6 seed.  13 and 5 (at least 12 wins) put is at 22 and 9 overall and at least 5 wins over currently ranked teams.  My guess is this type of record gives is a #18 to #25 ranking.

You guys need to look at our schedule and see how hard it is.  This gives us tons of opportunities for quality wins and why 9 wins might be enough.  I might add that no one has yet to pick 9 wins (I picked 10 but cannot change it to 9).

[chren21]

A followup to my analysis above ...

If we win "at least" 12 games, not only are we going to the NCAA tourney, we are probably ranked at the end of the season and getting a #5 or #6 seed.  13 and 5 (at least 12 wins) put is at 22 and 9 overall and at least 5 wins over currently ranked teams.  My guess is this type of record gives is a #18 to #25 ranking.

You guys need to look at our schedule and see how hard it is.  This gives us tons of opportunities for quality wins and why 9 wins might be enough.  I might add that no one has yet to pick 9 wins (I picked 10 but cannot change it to 9).

This thread was based on no tourney wins.  IE a first round tourney loss.  If we only have 10 wins we are 19-13 (13th loss from the BE tourney) and out in my opinion.  No out of conference quality wins and a first round matchup loss with a 9th or 10th place finisher in the BE.  Not a bad loss at the end but sure not one to tell the committe to select us.

9 wins and a first round tourney loss would be no chance, or am I missing something?

[brewcity77]

A followup to my analysis above ...

If we win "at least" 12 games, not only are we going to the NCAA tourney, we are probably ranked at the end of the season and getting a #5 or #6 seed.  13 and 5 (at least 12 wins) put is at 22 and 9 overall and at least 5 wins over currently ranked teams.  My guess is this type of record gives is a #18 to #25 ranking.

You guys need to look at our schedule and see how hard it is.  This gives us tons of opportunities for quality wins and why 9 wins might be enough.  I might add that no one has yet to pick 9 wins (I picked 10 but cannot change it to 9).

9? Really? 9!?! Hahahahahahahahaha...

Yeah, maybe if those nine wins are against UConn twice, Notre Dame twice, Syracuse, Pitt, Georgetown, Villanova, and Louisville. If we only win nine that all but guarantees a few bad legitimately bad losses that will damage our already unimpressive resume. And as chren pointed out, 19-13 will leave us a middle-of-the-road BEast team, likely with at most 2-3 wins over top 25 opposition (and for every win we have there, almost assured a bad loss). And honestly, 20-12 with a first round BEast loss to what will likely be a team like Rutgers or Seton Hall will probably have us on the outside looking in.

9 - no chance
10 - unlikely
11 - 50/50
12 - Should be in

[NersEllenson]

I'm really surprised that 12 wins has gotten as many votes as it has.  Given that we had 11 wins last year, and got a 6 seed...just can't see how 11 wins won't get us in this year.  We had the Xavier win, but Michigan finished the year ranked 140 in the RPI...think Vandy, Duke and Gonzaga are going to be champs of their conferences...a road win against Vandy would have been huge..but just don't see it as essential.

Given the 68 team field just can't see anyway that a Big East team that goes 11-7 in conference doesn't get in the dance - particularily one who has shown it can play with Duke, Vandy, Wisco...

[dsfire]

And honestly, 20-12 with a first round BEast loss to what will likely be a team like Rutgers or Seton Hall will probably have us on the outside looking in.

Last year's Louisville team says hello.  And, not that they're positives, but our non-conference losses are far less egregious than theirs were.

[GGGG]

You think Vandy is going to be SEC champions?  I mean, they're good, but not *that* good.

[chren21]

I'm really surprised that 12 wins has gotten as many votes as it has.  Given that we had 11 wins last year, and got a 6 seed...just can't see how 11 wins won't get us in this year.  We had the Xavier win, but Michigan finished the year ranked 140 in the RPI...think Vandy, Duke and Gonzaga are going to be champs of their conferences...a road win against Vandy would have been huge..but just don't see it as essential.

Given the 68 team field just can't see anyway that a Big East team that goes 11-7 in conference doesn't get in the dance - particularily one who has shown it can play with Duke, Vandy, Wisco...

Again, this is based on first round loss in BE tourney. Last year we won 2 games in the tourney and then lost to Georgetown. There is a big difference there especially when the second w came against a top ten team in villanova.

[NersEllenson]

You think Vandy is going to be SEC champions?  I mean, they're good, but not *that* good.

I really do think Vandy has a very legitimate chance at being SEC champs.  Kentucky will be main competition.  What's not to like about the Vandy team - they can hurt you in so many ways.  Stallings is highly regarded coach.  Got a Diener like PG, great wings, great inside presence, good athleticism, and a great home court advantage.  They are something like 725-150 in that building.

[Tugg Speedman]

9? Really? 9!?! Hahahahahahahahaha...

Yeah, maybe if those nine wins are against UConn twice, Notre Dame twice, Syracuse, Pitt, Georgetown, Villanova, and Louisville. If we only win nine that all but guarantees a few bad legitimately bad losses that will damage our already unimpressive resume. And as chren pointed out, 19-13 will leave us a middle-of-the-road BEast team, likely with at most 2-3 wins over top 25 opposition (and for every win we have there, almost assured a bad loss). And honestly, 20-12 with a first round BEast loss to what will likely be a team like Rutgers or Seton Hall will probably have us on the outside looking in.

9 - no chance
10 - unlikely
11 - 50/50
12 - Should be in

You must not be paying attention so let's try this again.

2010
ND and G-town made it with a 10 - 8 BE record

2009
WVU made it in with a 10-8 record, Prov also was 10-8 and did not

2008
Nova made it at 9-9, Syracuse did not at 9-9 (and much as been written that this was one of the biggest snubs ever)

2007
16 game schedule
Nova in at 9-7
WVU and Depaul not in at 9-7

2006
S Hall in at 9-7
Syracuse in at 7-9
Cincy not in at 8-8

2005
ND out at 9-7
WVU in at 8 - 8

Bottom Line
Since the BE went to 18 games in 2008, every team with 10 wins or more has made the NCAA, except Providence and a robbed Syracuse.  Are we this year's Providence?

Lastly, the current rankings have 7 BE teams ranked (5 in the top 10) and two others getting votes.  KenPom has 11 BE teams in the top 50 (MU is the 11th team at #42)

http://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=be&y=2011

Current KenPom top 50 teams
BE = 11
ACC = 4
B10 = 6
B12 = 9
Pac10 = 4
SEC = 4

The BE is not only the toughest conference, it is far and away the toughest conference.

Here is the Truth
9 wins = 50/50 getting in the NCAA, if not, a favorite to win the NIT
10 wins = in the NCAA
11 wins = in the NCAA, 50/50 on being ranked
12 wins = in the NCAA and ranked
13 wins = #4 seed

I'll say it again, do you guys have any idea how tough the BE is this year.  We will be playing the best (including Duke) and by March the odds are well over 50% we played this year's national champion.

If we get 11 to 13 wins in the 2011 edition of the BE it's because we are a good team deserving of a ranking.  This is not the Big 10, it is much tougher in the BE so we need fewer wins.

[brewcity77]

Last year's Louisville team says hello.  And, not that they're positives, but our non-conference losses are far less egregious than theirs were.

I still think it's 50/50 if we win 11 games. Let's not forget Louisville's two huge signature wins. First they knocked off unbeaten Syracuse on the road, then proved it wasn't a fluke by beating them at home just a week before the field was set. If they didn't beat Syracuse a second time, and instead got 11 wins by beating St. John's or Seton Hall earlier in the season, do they make the Dance? I sure wouldn't have given them very good odds.

We can get in with 11 wins, but we need to have some really big wins in there, like Louisville did against Syracuse. I think two wins against top 5 teams will be requisite if we only get 11 wins. We have those chances, but we have to capitalize.

[ChicosBailBonds]

http://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=be&y=2011

Current KenPom top 50 teams
BE = 11
ACC = 4
B10 = 6
B12 = 9
Pac10 = 4
SEC = 4

The BE is not only the toughest conference, it is far and away the toughest conference.

Ken Pom has the Big East rated 3rd...how can it be the toughest conference when you're using Ken Pom as your source but that very source has the conference rated 3rd best?  Not trying to pick a fight, just asking.

http://www.kenpom.com/conf.php?c=BE

[Tugg Speedman]

Brew:

See my analysis above ... since we joined the BE in 2005, every team with 11 BE wins has made the tourney without exception.  Why do you think we will be the first BE team not to make it with 11 wins?  Remember, as of now, we have no bad losses.

Like I've said before, the consensus thinking around here is usually wrong.  That's why I wished this was an investment blog, I could get rich doing the opposite of the consensus.  The consensus of 11 wins is wrong, the answer is 9.

[Tugg Speedman]

Ken Pom has the Big East rated 3rd...how can it be the toughest conference when you're using Ken Pom as your source but that very source has the conference rated 3rd best?  Not trying to pick a fight, just asking.

http://www.kenpom.com/conf.php?c=BE

KenPom ratings are the entire conference.  Since we have 16 teams, the South Florida's and DePauls drag our ranking down.  Rate the top 12 (number of teams in the ACC and B10) and we are way ahead of everyone else.

That is why we can have 11 teams in the top 50 and be ranked 3rd whereas the ACC only has 4 and is ahead of us.  They have "better crappy teams" than the bottom of the BE.

Side Note, KenPom has us winning against WVU tomorrow by 1 point (52% chance of winning).

[chren21]

Has anyone ever made it with 9 and not won at least one BE tourney game?

I'm looking at wiki and winning in the BE tourney matters. AGAIN this thread is based on losing the first game in the BE tourney. Take a look at the history.