To foul or not to foul..

[dw3dw3dw3]

As posted on the other board.... Does anyone wish to change their opinions on the matter?

http://rushthecourt.net/2010/08/25/harvard-study-no-discernible-advantage-to-fouling-down-three/

[GGGG]

I think most people want coaches to foul because they are doing something "active," versus doing something "reactive."  It feels that you are more in control of your outcome.

Even though that obviously isn't the case.

[mu_hilltopper]

In that link .. "K-State Chose Not to Foul Jordan Crawford in the Sweet Sixteen" picture.

My memory could be totally failing me, but if I recall, K-State was DESPERATELY trying to foul, but the ref refused to blow the whistle.  (That may have been an entirely different 2010 NCAA game .. just recall that end of some game a few months ago.)

[TJ]

Thank you Harvard group!  I've always thought that this whole "controversy" was entirely made up by announcers and pundits.

found 443 instances where a team held the ball down three points during their last possession of a period (either the end of the 2nd half or an overtime period). In 391 of those cases, the team leading did not foul. In 52 cases, the team chose to foul.

So first of all, even though every announcer brings it up every game and always says that it's the conventional/preferred strategy, coaches only actually employ the strategy less than 12% of the time when the situation arises.

More importantly,

For the less statistically inclined,  this means that there is no significant difference between the two strategies.

Sadly, I doubt this will be enough to shut the announcers and pundits up.

[g0lden3agle]

What about the trendy idea that it's a good idea to foul the other team when you are UP 3 points with mere seconds to go in the game?

EDIT: Wow, that's what I get for not actually reading the article and just posting based on the link... The link says "fouling-down-three" while the actual article is about fouling while up 3...

[Lennys Tap]

I think whether to foul or not foul on an opponent's "last possession" up 3 depends on variables not  included in the study. If there are more than 5 seconds remaining I (and most coaches) would say don't foul. This is because a 3 point shot can only tie you and with 5+ seconds left you still have time to win it should that occur. Also, the more time on the clock increases the possibility of the team up 3 losing the game outright via a 3 point play putback or a rebound and kickout 3. Another variable is how well you control the defensive glass. An extremely small, poor rebounding team like MU last year should probably never do it.

In summary, it's a valid strategy under some circumstances. They are, however, rare.

[wyoMUfan]

I think most people want coaches to foul because they are doing something "active," versus doing something "reactive."  It feels that you are more in control of your outcome.

Even though that obviously isn't the case.

http://bit.ly/aaABVk

final 2 minutes of KState vs. Xavier game... (easily best game of the tournament)

[ChicosBailBonds]

Harvard Sports Analysis Collective

Andy Katz visited them.  Definitely looks like a lot of them have done some serious playing and coaching hoops in their day.  

[MUBurrow]

its a cool study, but facts be damned (i know, i know) im still a big fan of fouling when on D and up 3.  the main reason is that if you lose, its because your team failed to do something they are supposed to be able to do.  ie defensive rebound to not turn the ball over to make free throws (although i dont think you should foul if there is enough time for the opp. to make their free throws, foul you, AND bring the ball back down the court -- if your free throws matter, you fouled too early).

this is in contrast to putting yourself at the mercy of the luck/3 pt shooting of the other team.  i recognize that this in some ways mirrors SSW's criticism of the reactive v. proactive stance, but i think that choosing not to foul is still a coach's proactive "decision". so i guess i just like the idea of putting more onus on your own players to do what they should always do under pressure as opposed to hoping for the best on a 3 pt launch and losing all momentum heading into OT if it goes.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Only thing is, if they get a trey off, they have a 34% chance of hitting it and tying the game. Need tofactor in the game clock too.  If < 8 seconds and the ball is being inbounded in the backcourt, bracket the dribbler to take away a running lane for his shooting hand...and then foul at half court.