The Roster of a Contender?

[Benny B]

Since I absolutely thrive upon putting the cart about two miles in front of the horse, I had a thought this morning about the Gardner signing... is he the missing piece?

Consider this: You have an absolute beast coming in who has size and skill (Gardner).  You have another big in Otule who, if he is progressing as many have said, will be a solid contributor on at least the defensive end.  Jae may very well be Lazar 2.0 if he can score on demand.  Blue and Cadougan will be a two-headed monster at the point (and 2), each with a different skill set.  DJO is, well... DJO (need I say more?).  Give these guys a full year to get it together, and what happens after that?

In 2011-12, MU's is going to return a defensive C, two PF's who can score, two guys who can run the point and penetrate, and a threat from downtown.  Not to mention a bench of further refined talent, and possibly another impact freshman or two.

Is the ceiling high enough to make a return trip to Nola in 2012, or is Buzz still missing a few pieces?

[Hards Alumni]

Take off the Blue and Gold colored glasses and put down the Kool-Aid.

[willie warrior]

I guess we will have to wait and see how next year unfolds. There are two many unknowns:
1. Will Otule stay healthy and can he handle the BEast
2. Gardner has the size, but can he run the floor and dominate down low--or will he be too slow?
3. Cadougan will be a major key: has he completely recovered and can he run the point in BEast?
4. How good will Blue be--not sure after an up and down senior year; also not sure point is his best position.

One thing we can be sure of: Butler and DJO will excel; still need to see how Crowder fares; and we will have plenty of depth for a change, without much of a drop off at any position, except the point, unless Blue can handle that position backing Caddy

Right now, I would say that most of the pieces are there, but PG needs to solidify, and Center has possibilities, but how will they fare against major competition?

[HoopsMalone]

A 3 star center does not push MU over the top to the Final Four.  Gardner is a project, Otule is a project, Mbao is a project.  

Contender for a double bye in the Big East Tourney.  

[avid1010]

Since I absolutely thrive upon putting the cart about two miles in front of the horse, I had a thought this morning about the Gardner signing... is he the missing piece?

I'm not that optimistic about Gardner.  I don't follow recruiting too closely, but when I searched Scout/Rivals it looked like USF and MU were the only two BCS schools that recruited him.  I'm not sure that translates to him being a beast next year.  I do think Buzz is putting together multiple recruiting classes that are full of talent and are now starting to be more balanced.  I'm excited for MU's future (minus the conference realignments), but not too optimistic that this years team will be much better than next years team.  I think the BEAST was down last year, and it worked out well for MU.

[goodgreatgrand]

Not too excited about Gardner. If we can smear the bball with barbeque sauce, then we might have something. If he went to a big10 school, it might have made more sense since pace would be a better fit. I cant remember too many centers in the BE that couldnt run with their team (Blair, maybe). Guys this big never hold up for 4 years - knees will be shot.

[Golden Avalanche]

I think we have the roster to contend for a top five Big East place for the next four years. It's a level of success the last guy established. It's a level of success the current guy has established. It's a level of success that we should expect to be in contention for.

For a program like MU to win the Big East, or even finish top two or three with ties, it will take something very, very special. There are just too many established programs/coaches that can and will beat us out. It may be above our station.

Further down the road, we all know the NCAAs are 70% draw and 30% talent. We've had favorable draws the last two seasons and done little with it. Let's get to the second weekend under Buzz first, then discuss the chances of a Final Four which would validate the talent on roster.

[chapman]

A 3 star center does not push MU over the top to the Final Four.  Gardner is a project, Otule is a project, Mbao is a project.  

Contender for a double bye in the Big East Tourney.  

This.  An absolute beast?  Maybe when you're staring at 6'9" 300 lbs. on the street, but not on the court, yet.  If he puts up Dwight Burke senior numbers (2.8 ppg, 3.7 rpg, decent interior defense) by his junior year I would be pleased.  Any earlier would be a surprise.

[Benny B]

Take off the Blue and Gold colored glasses and put down the Kool-Aid.

Whoa, whoa, whoa.  I'm not proclaiming that Jesus has risen here... I'm simply asking if the ceiling is high enough.  At some point, grit and effort is going to give way to talent and size.

My question is whether MU now has the requisite size and talent, call it the "tangibles" if you will, to make a FF run in two years.

In other words, if they develop, if they perform, if they give it their all, if they play as a team, could this team make a deep tourney run?  Because it certainly seems that MU did all four of these things this year and still wasn't good enough to make it out of the first round.

[brewcity77]

• If Jimmy Butler continues his rise and turns into Lazar (18 ppg, 7 rpg) and contends for First Team All-Big East...
  
• If Darius Johnson-Odom can take over as a dominant scorer both inside and out with consistency and average 20 ppg...
  
• If Jae Crowder is indeed the second coming of Lazar, and can average 15 ppg/6 rpg as a junior, likely being named Newcomer of the Year in the BEast...
  
• If all the hype about Chris Otule isn't just hype, and he can play 30 mpg, run the floor, defend, and rebound...
  
• If Junior Cadougan can step in to play 30 mpg with a 2.5 assist-to-turnover ratio...
  
• If two of either Joe Fulce, Erik Williams, and Jamail Jones can provide solid minutes off the bench to take the pressure off Butler and Crowder, while providing some scoring and quality defending...
  
• If one of Vander Blue, Dwight Buycks, or DJ Newbill can prove to have an efficient enough handle to play 8-10 mpg at the point...
  
• If two of either Blue, Buycks, and Newbill can provide solid minutes off the bench, including legitimate shooting depth for late game situations and not turning the ball over...
  
• If Mbao and Gardner can combine for 8-10 minutes off the bench of solid defense and rebounding...
  
  IF all of those things come to pass, then yes, I think we can start thinking about a possible Final Four run. I think we need a bench that reliably goes to 9-10 deep, we need Butler and DJO to both be candidates for First Team All-Big East, and we need two more players who will average 10 ppg, likely Crowder and someone off the bench.
  
  The other key factor is to contend for a title (which pretty much every Final Four team is doing) you generally need those three star performers, the three NBA level talents. Crean had that with Wade, Diener, and Novak. I'd say that Buzz even had that last year with Matthews, Hayward, and McNeal, though the fourth man, James, proved key when he went down with injury and the team collapsed. Could DJO morph into Ben Gordon? Could Vander Blue develop into our next Dwyane Wade? Could Butler or Crowder prove to have that necessary punch to put us over the top? The answer to all these questions, and to all of the ifs above, are yes. But unless they all come up yes this year, I think we should focus on the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 as reasonable targets.

[downtown85]

I love all this optimism, but this team is going to have to have MAJOR contributions from first year players to even make it back to the NCAA tournament.  If Buzz can get us in the tourney next year, he should be a COY candidate (again). 

This team can be a contender in two or three years.  Maybe we should red-shirt Butler!   ;-)

[GGGG]

What I do like is that Buzz has so many more options than he did last year.  We have added size and length without seemingly sacrificing our outside scoring.  After next year we can go big with Otule, Gardner and Crowder on the front line, or we can go small with a deeper guard rotation.  This is a much more versatile roster than we have seen recently.  I know things don't always pan out how you expect, but I am optimistic that we are going to be better able to match up than we were the past two years.

[brewcity77]

I love all this optimism, but this team is going to have to have MAJOR contributions from first year players to even make it back to the NCAA tournament.  If Buzz can get us in the tourney next year, he should be a COY candidate (again). 

This team can be a contender in two or three years.  Maybe we should red-shirt Butler!   ;-)

I think we'll make it back to the Dance, but you're dead on there. My guess is we'll be looking at that 4-7 range, which is why targets like the Sweet 16 are better than the Final Four. I know that the 2003 team did kind of come out of nowhere (Jackson, Novak's shooting, Wade suddenly being a lottery pick) but I think it's best to hold off that kind of optimism until we've seen them run up an 18-2 record and are ranked in the top 10 after 20 games. If, on the other hand, they're 13-7 and looking like a bubble team, we haven't over-invested.

[Bob "Big Daddy" Wild]

• If Jimmy Butler continues his rise and turns into Lazar (18 ppg, 7 rpg) and contends for First Team All-Big East...
  
• If Darius Johnson-Odom can take over as a dominant scorer both inside and out with consistency and average 20 ppg...
  
• If Jae Crowder is indeed the second coming of Lazar, and can average 15 ppg/6 rpg as a junior, likely being named Newcomer of the Year in the BEast...
  
• If all the hype about Chris Otule isn't just hype, and he can play 30 mpg, run the floor, defend, and rebound...
  
• If Junior Cadougan can step in to play 30 mpg with a 2.5 assist-to-turnover ratio...
  
• If two of either Joe Fulce, Erik Williams, and Jamail Jones can provide solid minutes off the bench to take the pressure off Butler and Crowder, while providing some scoring and quality defending...
  
• If one of Vander Blue, Dwight Buycks, or DJ Newbill can prove to have an efficient enough handle to play 8-10 mpg at the point...
  
• If two of either Blue, Buycks, and Newbill can provide solid minutes off the bench, including legitimate shooting depth for late game situations and not turning the ball over...
  
• If Mbao and Gardner can combine for 8-10 minutes off the bench of solid defense and rebounding...
  
  IF all of those things come to pass, then yes, I think we can start thinking about a possible Final Four run. I think we need a bench that reliably goes to 9-10 deep, we need Butler and DJO to both be candidates for First Team All-Big East, and we need two more players who will average 10 ppg, likely Crowder and someone off the bench.
  
  The other key factor is to contend for a title (which pretty much every Final Four team is doing) you generally need those three star performers, the three NBA level talents. Crean had that with Wade, Diener, and Novak. I'd say that Buzz even had that last year with Matthews, Hayward, and McNeal, though the fourth man, James, proved key when he went down with injury and the team collapsed. Could DJO morph into Ben Gordon? Could Vander Blue develop into our next Dwyane Wade? Could Butler or Crowder prove to have that necessary punch to put us over the top? The answer to all these questions, and to all of the ifs above, are yes. But unless they all come up yes this year, I think we should focus on the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 as reasonable targets.

As soon as I saw the title of this thread, I had the exact same thoughts as brewcity.

If everything, and I mean everything breaks MUs way the next two years, yeah sure they are contenders.  More reastically I think we have a good foundation for solid success over the next several seasons...with sucess being defined as competitive tournament teams.

If we add to this foundation (think 5 star talent in '11 and '12 classes - c'mon Dawson), then I think about being a contender.

[NersEllenson]

I think we have the roster to contend for a top five Big East place for the next four years. It's a level of success the last guy established. It's a level of success the current guy has established. It's a level of success that we should expect to be in contention for.

For a program like MU to win the Big East, or even finish top two or three with ties, it will take something very, very special. There are just too many established programs/coaches that can and will beat us out. It may be above our station.

Further down the road, we all know the NCAAs are 70% draw and 30% talent. We've had favorable draws the last two seasons and done little with it. Let's get to the second weekend under Buzz first, then discuss the chances of a Final Four which would validate the talent on roster.

Seems you have an agenda to keep Buzz on the same level as Tom Crean?  Not sure that getting the Pac 10 champion as an 11 seed would qualify as a favorable draw.  Not sure playing a deeep Mizzou team in the 2nd round of the 2009 NCAA was favorable, particularily not for a team that went 7 deep due to poor recruiting by the previous regime.  Not sure that the 2009-2010 team even making the NCAA tourney could have been expected, after being predicted for 12th place in Big East.  I suspect Buzz will be able to take MU deeper into the NCAA tourney consistently, than was the predecessor..who..in his 9 years got us to 1 Final Four, 1 Round of 32, and 3 first round defeats.  Let's get to 9 season under Buzz and then discuss how his performance has compared with his predecessor.

[GGGG]

Ners I think that is pretty much what he has said.  Too early to judge based on two disappointing performances in the tournament so far.  Don't have such a knee-jerk reaction whenever anyone criticizes Buzz.

[Ari Gold]

I think brewcity77 hit on every major point.
In my opinion, what it comes down to is IF Jones, EWill or a future recruit can replace Butler's talent and if Buzz can recruit at the level or better than the current juniors and seniors, then yes with some experience we should start considering our team a 'contender' for a for a few byes in the BE Tourney and maybe even a banner.

[NersEllenson]

Ners I think that is pretty much what he has said.  Too early to judge based on two disappointing performances in the tournament so far.  Don't have such a knee-jerk reaction whenever anyone criticizes Buzz.

As you know I'm a big Buzz fan.  Very true.  But, I wouldn't call it knee jerking to point out that Buzz has been here 2 years so far, and after just 2 years he has already matched what Tom Crean accomplished (sans a Final Four appearance) in 9 years.  Crean won 1 NCAA tourney game other than the Final Four Run in his 5 years in the tourney in his 9 years as MU coach.  My point was I suspect Buzz will get us to at least 2 or 3 Sweet 16's or Elite 8's in the next 7 years.  That will far exeed what the previous regime accomplished.

And you wrote:  "too early to judge based on two disappointing performances in the tournament so far,"   What did you expect from Buzz's two teams so far??  Did you really think we'd be in the NCAA tourney last year after the loss of the Big 3?  Did you think we'd be a Sweet 16 team without Dominic James?

[AZWarrior]

I never expect much of frosh, especially down low frosh.  Any contribution will be a plus.

I just hope Otule can last a season - without yet another injury.

But in the meantime, my blue and gold colored glasses will remain in place!   

[Marquette84]

Crean won 1 NCAA tourney game other than the Final Four Run in his 5 years in the tourney in his 9 years as MU coach.  My point was I suspect Buzz will get us to at least 2 or 3 Sweet 16's or Elite 8's in the next 7 years.  That will far exeed what the previous regime accomplished.

And you wrote:  "too early to judge based on two disappointing performances in the tournament so far,"   What did you expect from Buzz's two teams so far??  Did you really think we'd be in the NCAA tourney last year after the loss of the Big 3?  Did you think we'd be a Sweet 16 team without Dominic James?

Of course, Buzz will never bear the burden of rebuilding the 7th place CUSA team--and Crean never inherited a team with 4 of the top 10 MU scorers of all time--facts you excluded from your comparison. 

The fact of the matter is that Buzz's signature NCAA win over Utah State doesn't quite compare to Crean's 2008 win over UK (not to mention the one in 2003). 

Maybe Buzz will exceed Crean's accomplishments someday--maybe he won't.  But to say he's already accomplished it is a stretch. 

[bamamarquettefan]

First, on the signature win front, TCs win over Kentucky in 2003 was the only time in the history of the program that Marquette has beaten a team ranked No. 1.  Even Al McGuire never managed to upset a No.1, so Buzz might never match that signature win, but he has certainly had plenty of great wins.

As far as the initial question, I've published the math on how 3-stars, 4-stars and 5-stars usually progress from year to year, and it points to about 26 wins next year, which means we might be able to get through the first weekend to the Sweet 16.  However, the two following years look very good, and certainly a deep run is a possibility.  As pointed out, 3-stars don't usually make much of a contribution until their sophomore year, but just having a wide body is so key for us that I am still thrilled about Davante.

The biggest long term factor is Vander Blue.  So much focus is on 5-stars, and they do one of three things:

1. head cases who transfer once they realize they aren't all world (doesn't sound like Vander is one of them)
2. turnout to be very good four-year players but don't quite dominate, or
3. are as good or better than advertised, and explode to dominate either their freshman, sophomore or junior year, but then leave for the NBA after that.

I believe Vander will be really good next year, but the question is (if he is a type 3 player on this list), which year will he just dominate?  If that year comes, we have enough other pieces in place that we have a real chance to make a very deep run.  BUT, that could be our only real chance, because after that year - if it happens - odds are very good Vander is in the NBA.

[bilsu]

I like the direction of the program, but I will take exception with the statement that we had two great recruting classes in a row. They are great in numbers, but look at last year's class.

1. DJO-absolute stud
2. Buyckes-nice back up guard.
3. Cadougan-injury makes 1st year a bust.
4. Eric Williams-inability to play defense negates his scoring and rebounding ability.
5.Mbao-the best looking worst player I have ever seen. At least two mores years away from being a factor.
6. Maymon-a quitter
7.  Roseboro-a quitter

We got less than 100 points from our freshmen class and the majority of the points left after 9 games.

[tower912]

This has the potential to be the deepest team at MU has ever seen.   More talented than Wade, Diener, Novak, Jackson, Merrit?    Not yet.    This team HAS THE POTENTIAL (and that is all at this point) to have Buzz' ideal of 13 high majors and a 9.5 man rotation.    Any contributions from Yous or Gardner next year are gifts.    Otule (assuming health) is starting at the 5.   Fulce should get some minutes there, and the real wildcard is Williams.   If he 'gets it', he could eliminate the need for Yous or Gardner to play big minutes in conference.  

[Doctor V]

This.  An absolute beast?  Maybe when you're staring at 6'9" 300 lbs. on the street, but not on the court, yet.  If he puts up Dwight Burke senior numbers (2.8 ppg, 3.7 rpg, decent interior defense) by his junior year I would be pleased.  Any earlier would be a surprise.

Pleased by 3ppg and 4rpg as a Junior? I would be willing to put heavy action down that assuming he is still around, Mbao will be able to do that this yr as a soph (assuming he averages enough minutes)

[NersEllenson]

Of course, Buzz will never bear the burden of rebuilding the 7th place CUSA team--and Crean never inherited a team with 4 of the top 10 MU scorers of all time--facts you excluded from your comparison. 

The fact of the matter is that Buzz's signature NCAA win over Utah State doesn't quite compare to Crean's 2008 win over UK (not to mention the one in 2003). 

Maybe Buzz will exceed Crean's accomplishments someday--maybe he won't.  But to say he's already accomplished it is a stretch. 

84 - We all know you are the staunchest of staunch Tom Crean supporters - along with Chicos.  I can appreciate what Tom Crean did in his time at MU, but the reality is take away D-Wade and his accomplishments would have placed him a rung below Al McGuire and Kevin O'Neill.  And are you really going to argue that beating Kentucky in 2008 was a signature win??  Kentucky was what..an 11 that year?  Weren't we a 6 that lost to Stanford the 3 in Round 2 in 2008?  And keep in mind we had D James + Barro that year.  Other than the Final Four team, Tom Crean's performance in the NCAA tourney was pretty poor.  The fact Buzz got us to the tourney this past season is a huge accomplishment - considering what was left at MU after Crean left.