Big East Raided: Worst Case Scenario

[brewcity77]

Okay, so obviously the Big Ten is looking to expand. Right now, it could be one team, it could be three, it could be five. It seems most of their focus is on the Big East and Big 12 as far as targeted teams, but what I am wondering is what is the absolute worst case scenario that could happen to the Big East? Say they take the five most appealing schools, all from our conference. Who would leave, and where would we look to replace them? First, here are the five teams I would think make the most appealing targets for the Big Ten:

• 1) Pittsburgh: The Panthers are a solid top 25 team in both basketball and football, which means revenue for the Big 10, and are an AAU member, which would satisfy the academic chairs. They also finally provide a natural rival for Penn State.
  
• 2) Syracuse: Great basketball program, respectable football program (most of the time), and another AAU member. Not as ideal as Pitt, but still a solid bet. Also opens up New York state to the Big Ten Network.
  
• 3) Notre Dame: Good basketball and football programs, tremendous viewer base, been offered before. Not AAU, but probably not far off from an academic perspective, and could find the path to membership easier as a Big Ten member. Rivalries with Purdue, Michigan, and Michigan State already in place.
  
• 4) Rutgers: Good football program, weak basketball program, but has the potential to be solid in both. Also an AAU member. Opens up New Jersey to Big Ten Network.
  
• 5) Connecticut: Good basketball and football programs, one of the only women's college basketball teams casual viewers might take time to watch. Not AAU, but they are pretty solid in terms of academics and as a research university. Big Ten membership would likely allow them to join the AAU. At the least, opens Connecticut to the network, but possibly even more of New England.

Clearly, losing four perennial top 25 teams would be a major blow to the conference. Just so we can see what we are dealing with, here is what would be left in the Big East. I have added an asterisk to schools that also have a football program:

1) Cincinnati*
2) DePaul
3) Georgetown
4) Louisville*
5) Marquette
6) Providence
7) St. John's
8) Seton Hall
9) South Florida*
10) Villanova
11) West Virginia*

From a basketball perspective, we would still have three perennial top 25 teams (Georgetown, Villanova, WVU) and another three that could be expected to make regular NCAA trips (Cincinnati, Louisville, Marquette). From a football perspective, all 4 teams are at least decent, and two have been regularly ranked in the top ten over the past couple years.

So the next question, I believe, is where would the Big East look to replace the vacancies. Obviously the BCS is huge, so I believe that we would want to add at least 4 more universities with football programs. If we add 4, you can bet we'd add a total of 5 teams to get back to 16 for basketball. So with that in mind, here are my top ten targets for the Big East to add:

• 1) Boston College: Let's be honest, they never should have left in the first place, and I think they know it. They bring both sports, and are a natural fit.
  
• 2) Memphis: They bring a top-notch basketball team (despite last year's struggles) and a football team that has 5 bowl appearances since 2003. They are also natural rivals for Cincy and Louisville.
  
• 3) Temple: A great geographic fit, they also currently have a top basketball team in the A-10 and a top football team in the MAC. Perfect rival for Nova.
  
• 4) Kent State: Average football team, but a pretty good basketball team (with an Elite 8 run not long ago). Would help connect Marquette and DePaul geographically to the rest of the conference and open up recruiting in Ohio.
  
• 5) Central Michigan: Very good football team, average basketball team, another geographic connector and would help Big East compete in a previously untapped Michigan market.
  
• 6) Northern Illinois: Geographically they are getting a bit far out, but work as a more local rival for DePaul and Marquette. Their football program is pretty good, their basketball program is not. But again, that can be fixed with time and the right conference.
  
• 7) East Carolina: Another C-USA team, they also bring a strong football program. Basketball is weak, but they would help the Big East compete for recruits in the heart of ACC country.
  
• 8) Ball State: Honestly, neither their football nor basketball team is anything special. But you have to think that can only improve with Big East recruiting pipelines. If we lose Notre Dame, the conference has no presence in Indiana. Ball State is a good geographic connector and at least has the sports we desire.
  
• 9) University of Central Florida: Would help connect the rest of the conference to USF, and give them a decent rival. UCF is definitely better at football than basketball, but would help further open up a fertile recruiting bed for the conference.
  
• 10) Marshall: Natural rival for West Virginia, decent enough basketball and football programs that would be boosted by joining a BCS conference.

Others considered: Akron, Bowling Green, Butler, Navy, Northern Iowa, Ohio, Richmond, Siena, St. Louis, UAB, UTEP, Western Michigan, Xavier

As far as the teams left off, there are various reasons. Some, like Akron and Ohio, simply don't have enough of a continued pedigree of success athletically. Others, like Butler, Richmond, and Xavier, have excellent basketball programs, but don't add anything to the football side, which is clearly immensely important for a BCS conference. Others, like Northern Iowa and UTEP, simply seem to be too much of a geographic stretch.

Clearly, the five schools we would lose would not be equaled by the schools we used to replace them. But strictly from a basketball sense, if we were able to add Memphis and Temple, that would still give us a chance to get 6-8 bids per year. From a football perspective, schools like Boston College, Temple, and Central Michigan would let us carry on without really missing much of a beat. Academically, it would be a big slide, but on the plus side, it would let us use the "Safety School" chants with regularity

[HoopsMalone]

The Big East does not need 16 basketball teams.  It would only need to decide how it wants to handle its football.  Suggestions 4-10 are not very exciting at all.

We might be looking at a basketball only conference.  I see a half full glass as better than C-USA with a Big East Tourney at the Garden.

[MarqBB77-03]

Will the ACC also try to expand to remain competitive and take some of the remaining football school?

[TheButlerDidIt]

You honestly think that BC even fathoms jumping from a stable ACC to a looted Big East? They wouldn't bat an eye at moving.

Clearly BC did not make a mistake as its conference won't be taking body blows anytime soon.

[bma725]

If the Big 10 takes 5 teams, the Big East will no longer be a part of the BCS, simple as that.  So there's no need to worry about adding football teams or adding a large amount of teams, we'll likely just add one team and discontinue Big East football.

[CTWarrior]

The worst case scenario would be losing the 5 you mentioned plus West Virginia, South Florida, Louisville and Cincinnati to other football conferences.  Those schools could be attractive to the ACCs, SECs or Big 12s of the world when they try to expand, plus I don't think they'd be too happy to exist in a conference that adds Memphis, East Carolina, Marshall, Buffalo or whatever so they still have an 8 team football conference.  

Should that happen, the Big East would then be the top 2nd tier conference, ahead of the Atlantic 10, etc.  With some luck, we could add a selected number schools along the Butler, Xavier, Temple, Dayton, Saint Louis, UMass lines and get to a solid 10 team basketball conference.

No matter how you slice this, this is not a good thing for non-football schools like us.

[goodgreatgrand]

Your 'worst case scenario' only takes into account what the B10 will do. The ACC might just take one or two programs as well (I would love to see miami and fsu get poached by the big12).

Any way you slice it, no football school would want to be a member of the BE (well, except for a Ball State-type of program).

[GGGG]

Brewcity, the problem with your potential schools is that you focus way too much on the basketball part of it, and not enough on the football and overall markets part of it.  I think the two most likely schools are Central Florida.  (40,000+ students in Orlando) and East Carolina.

Outside of basketball, Memphis is a train wreck of an athletic program.

[bma725]

One more thing, after booting Temple out of the conference for lack of performance a few years ago, there is no way the remaining Big East AD's go back to them hat in hand to invite them back.  So you can cross them off the list.

[M@RQUETTEW@RRIORS]

If the Big 10 takes 5 teams, the Big East will no longer be a part of the BCS, simple as that.  So there's no need to worry about adding football teams or adding a large amount of teams, we'll likely just add one team and discontinue Big East football.

I see what you are saying however, what about the teams that have football that are still in the Big East.  Louisville, West Virginia both have quality football programs and would likely find a different home if that were to happen.  They wouldnt stay just for football.  That being the case IMO the best route of bball only would include Xavier, Butler etc.

[bma725]

quote author=M@RQUETTEW@RRIORS link=topic=20271.msg208180#msg208180 date=1271854990]
I see what you are saying however, what about the teams that have football that are still in the Big East.  Louisville, West Virginia both have quality football programs and would likely find a different home if that were to happen.  They wouldnt stay just for football.  That being the case IMO the best route of bball only would include Xavier, Butler etc.
[/quote]

The problem for those teams(and Cincinatti) in this scenario is, where the heck do they go?  If the Big 10 takes 5 teams from the Big East, that pretty much ends expansion right there.  The ACC wouldn't take any of the remaining schools, the SEC would only consider Louisville, the Big 12 wouldn't take them, and the PAC-10 isn't going to look at any of them.

So given the choice, between leaving the conference entirely, or staying in the conference for everything except football, they'd likely do the latter.

[goodgreatgrand]

One more thing, after booting Temple out of the conference for lack of performance a few years ago, there is no way the remaining Big East AD's go back to them hat in hand to invite them back.  So you can cross them off the list.

What an interesting conversation that would be...

"Temple!!! [with arms extended for a hug]. How are you?! Ummm, sorry about being "temple'd" a few years back - you guys just weren't good enough and our ego was sky high. But, that was when things were going well....when we had a respectable football conference. Things have changed. How would you like to come back and join us? Here's the catch. Our conference sucks so bad that your program would actually be considered one of the elite. How does that sound, hmm? hmm [caddy shack judge impersonation]? Sounds pretty good, right? Back in the Big East!! Whatdya say?

Temple AD: "F* off." This new Big East idea blows.   

[Ready2Fly]

This may have been brought up before, but since we're a non-football school in the Big East, if the conference gets severely raided in whatever scenario, could we become a non-football member of the Big 12, ACC, or Big 10?  

I was thinking the Big 12 would be perfect, because that's in Buzz' prime recruiting territory (4 schools in Texas).  If they added us and Xavier, they wouldn't have to share any football money, but they get to open two markets they aren't currently in with Milwaukee and Cincinnati (and Wisconsin and Ohio as a whole).  Not sure if they would accept two small private schools into the conference, but crazy things seem to be happening everywhere.  Maybe they could add Cincy and Louisville as football schools to bring basketball up to 16 teams.

I think it makes more sense for the Big 10 to add teams like Nebraska and Missouri though.  Nobody outside of the middle U.S. cares about the Big 10, and adding teams like Pitt, Rutgers or UConn won't change that.

[bma725]

The issue is that none of the other conferences want non-football schools.  The Big East is really the only avenue for basketball only schools to be considered high majors, because it was founded as a basketball conference.  The rest of the conferences would prefer that the basketball only schools either start a football team or drop down to DIII.

[duanewade]

You lost me at Kent State.

[willie warrior]

I am not buying that the Big 10 would leap to taking 5 teams. The Conference is too conservative to make that leap. I think one team will eventually go. A 16 team conference is too big for basketball, and probably football.

The best fits in my opinion would be:
1. ND--but they will likely not be inteersted, as they think they are the cat's meow in the world
2. Pitt--they would be a good fit
3. Missouri--Would bring great rivalry with Illinois and Iowa; although I wonder if they think their football could compete

The one that would be a great addition but would likely never happen would be Kansas. Great basketball, and emeging football.

[Ready2Fly]

Well then apparently we need a football team.  I don't care how shitty it is, it's clearly going to make or break our relevance in hoops, which is all I care about.  How do we get one though, with a $285 million endowment?  I've heard it costs $100 million+ to start a D1 program.  Although if Villanova is on the cusp of doing it (with Penn State and Pitt in their back yard), I'm sure we can too.  Are we just royally screwed without football in the long term, whether or not this supposed conference reshuffling breaks our way in the short term?

[Ready2Fly]

I am not buying that the Big 10 would leap to taking 5 teams. The Conference is too conservative to make that leap. I think one team will eventually go. A 16 team conference is too big for basketball, and probably football.

The best fits in my opinion would be:
1. ND--but they will likely not be inteersted, as they think they are the cat's meow in the world
2. Pitt--they would be a good fit
3. Missouri--Would bring great rivalry with Illinois and Iowa; although I wonder if they think their football could compete

The one that would be a great addition but would likely never happen would be Kansas. Great basketball, and emeging football.

I agree, I think the Big 10 taking one Big 12 team (Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska) and the Big 12 adding a team like Boise St. to fill the void makes the most logical sense.  We would dodge a short-term bullet in that case, but what about the long term?  It seems like the Big East and Big 12 are vulnerable to being hit by the Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10, and SEC.  I don't want to be on the outside looking in.  The Big 10 would be the best fit for us in a hypothetical four super-conference world (I just puked in my mouth a little bit), but it appears we stand no chance of invitation to any of them without football.

[bma725]

Are we just royally screwed without football in the long term, whether or not this supposed conference reshuffling breaks our way in the short term?

Bingo.  With a football team, you at least have a shot at controlling your own destiny.  Without it, you cede control to a bunch of schools that don't give a crap about you.

[BrewCity83]

If the BE gets raided, I could see it reloading with other schools who are interested in being in a basketball-only power conference, like the way the Big East started.  

[brewcity77]

I am not buying that the Big 10 would leap to taking 5 teams. The Conference is too conservative to make that leap. I think one team will eventually go. A 16 team conference is too big for basketball, and probably football.

Honestly, neither am I. I think that if they come, they probably take one, I just wanted to look at what was available if they did take 5. Basically, this is just the nightmare scenario.

I know some of the names don't necessarily look that appealing, but how did South Florida look when they came into the Big East with us? Now they have a team capable of getting real close to the Big Dance, and a football team that was ranked in the top 25 this year.

My main question is this...is it that easy for the BCS to kick us out? As a founding member, I'm sure we are contractually locked in. And if we were able to quickly turn around and add in a few competent teams, we might be able to keep membership. I'm not saying all of these teams are fantastic options that should make us salivate, but I was curious to see if there were any other schools that were better options that I wasn't thinking of. And I know that BC and Temple might take some finagling, but they are certainly more appealing than most anyone else on that list.

As far as a football program, is it even remotely realistic? While we have the 2nd largest basketball budget in the country at $10M/year, I think that's largely because we don't have to pour money into football. I'd like to see the effort made, if only to keep us relevant, but where does the scratch come from?

[goodgreatgrand]

Why would Boston College come back? This whole expansion business is all about money, no? Well, they make more money as a member of the ACC than they did as a member of the BE. And why the hell would they want anything to do with BE football? If anything, BC should be lobbying their commissioner to add another BE school from the Northeast. If Uconn doesnt go to the B10, they would be a great fit (BC would get a natural rival and there would be more interest in the ACC in New England).

[Tom Crean's Tanning Bed]

I know some of the names don't necessarily look that appealing, but how did South Florida look when they came into the Big East with us? Now they have a team capable of getting real close to the Big Dance, and a football team that was ranked in the top 25 this year.

My main question is this...is it that easy for the BCS to kick us out? As a founding member, I'm sure we are contractually locked in. And if we were able to quickly turn around and add in a few competent teams, we might be able to keep membership. I'm not saying all of these teams are fantastic options that should make us salivate, but I was curious to see if there were any other schools that were better options that I wasn't thinking of. And I know that BC and Temple might take some finagling, but they are certainly more appealing than most anyone else on that list.

South Florida was in 2003-2004 where Central Florida is seen now.  A sleeping giant in football in perhaps the 2nd most fertile football recruiting grounds in the country.  They were brought in for football, and for the most part have delivered.  Any improvement to basketball is just gravy.  This is why Central Florida is desperately trying to get into the Big East.

[goodgreatgrand]

Here's an interesting take and good read about expansion from UConn's perspective:

http://www.theuconnblog.com/2010/4/19/1431247/the-big-ten-expansion-and-uconn

[Litehouse]

I am not buying that the Big 10 would leap to taking 5 teams. The Conference is too conservative to make that leap. I think one team will eventually go. A 16 team conference is too big for basketball, and probably football.

But it isn't just that the Big Ten would gain additional teams, it's also that they would destroy their competition in the Big East.  They compete against us for recruits and TV viewers, and if the Big East was gone, it would eliminate that competition and open up the east coast market for the BTN.  I think that's what they really want to do.  Taking 1 team from the Big East hurts, but doesn't kill us.  Taking 5, or maybe even 3, kills the Big East as we know it and knocks us down to a lower level.