2010 NBA Mock Draft

[Brewtown Andy]

The problem is that you know exactly what you will get with Lazar. He's a borderline roster guy and nothing more. Where as a Euro may suck, but at least there is a chance you get a rotational player. There's also benefits to having a Euro stashed. It saves a roster spot for a vet that can contribute. Why waste a roster spot and money on a guy who you don't think is ready. Look at Ersan for the Bucks. He's a second round pick that spent a couple seasons in Europe. If he was a 4-year college player (he's only 22 right now), he would've been a rookie this year. Instead this is his second year on the Bucks and got 2 years on a team (FC Barcelona) in a league way more competitive than the NCAA.

Trust me, I would love to see hometown guys on the Bucks over Euros, but they are doing what's best for them.

This is all the Dream Team's fault. 

[MUBurrow]

Notable 4-year players in the draft:

2005 - Danny Granger, Hakim Warrick, David Lee, Travis Diener, Ryan Gomes
2006 - Brandon Roy, Randy Foye, Steve Novak, Craig Smith
2007 - Al Thornton, Aaron Brooks, Carl Landry
2008 - Jason Thompson, Roy Hibbert
2009 - Terrence Williams, Tyler Hansbrough, Darren Collison, Toney Douglas, Sam Young, Marcus Thornton, AJ Price, Wesley Matthews

good research, its nice to have the names out there in this discussion.

I think Lazar's best point of comparison here might be a guy like David Lee.  Lee is sort of a guy without a position, but does really well in a fast paced offense under D'Antoni.  One theme among a lot of those guys that unfortunately doesn't apply to Lazar is there seem to be a lot of big time athletes (with size) that needed the time to refine their offensive games (Hibbert, Landry, Thompson, to an extent Gomes)

[4everwarriors]

How 'bout Brandon Jennings?

[wojosdojo]

Talking UK players entering the draft looks a little crazy. I can't really see more than two of these guys having bright futures, not because their not good but because of the hard transition. If you look at how dominant Thabeet was in 08-09 he just doesn't look near as good with the Thunder (seems happens to a lot of guys). So how will Patterson and the delightful Cousins join the NBA? I could see why Bledsoe left ($$) but I also see why he shouldn't have. Tell me what you think cuz I sure am confused. Also, don't bring up Orton because I think we all know how that's going to play out.

[ChicosBailBonds]

How 'bout Brandon Jennings?

I'd like a nice Chardonnay if Lazar makes it.

[4everwarriors]

Still have my address on file?

[ChicosBailBonds]

Still have my address on file?

I do....will they accept strippers at the 4ever household to deliver the goods?  If I'm going to pay, I think it should be blown out.

[martyconlonontherun]

Talking UK players entering the draft looks a little crazy. I can't really see more than two of these guys having bright futures, not because their not good but because of the hard transition. If you look at how dominant Thabeet was in 08-09 he just doesn't look near as good with the Thunder (seems happens to a lot of guys). So how will Patterson and the delightful Cousins join the NBA? I could see why Bledsoe left ($$) but I also see why he shouldn't have. Tell me what you think cuz I sure am confused. Also, don't bring up Orton because I think we all know how that's going to play out.

I've never understood the argument a player should stay to get better. Why have a guy try to balance school and play against amateur athletes with college-level training facilities? You can play against the world's best everyday in practice in pro-facitilities and get your body used to the 82 game schedule and travel.

If your argument is to stay and get an education, then I would agree. Unfortunately, most college players don't take advantage of that.

[Mayor McCheese]

Talking UK players entering the draft looks a little crazy. I can't really see more than two of these guys having bright futures, not because their not good but because of the hard transition. If you look at how dominant Thabeet was in 08-09 he just doesn't look near as good with the Thunder (seems happens to a lot of guys). So how will Patterson and the delightful Cousins join the NBA? I could see why Bledsoe left ($$) but I also see why he shouldn't have. Tell me what you think cuz I sure am confused. Also, don't bring up Orton because I think we all know how that's going to play out.

Patterson and Cousins will be very good players in the NBA

Wall = stud

Orton and Bledsoe will be projects in the NBA

[MerrittsMustache]

I've never understood the argument a player should stay to get better. Why have a guy try to balance school and play against amateur athletes with college-level training facilities? You can play against the world's best everyday in practice in pro-facitilities and get your body used to the 82 game schedule and travel.

If your argument is to stay and get an education, then I would agree. Unfortunately, most college players don't take advantage of that.

Do you really think Calipari's players have to balance school with basketball?

Players learn the game better by staying in college longer. There is not a lot of teaching going on in the NBA because the players basically run the show. Also, the best way to get better at basketball is to play basketball. Coasting through practices and then sitting on the bench collecting a paycheck doesn't make a player better.

Unfortunately, the key word in that paragraph is "paycheck." Why play for free if someone will pay you to do it? It's a flawed system.

[Hards Alumni]

Do you really think Calipari's players have to balance school with basketball?

Players learn the game better by staying in college longer. There is not a lot of teaching going on in the NBA because the players basically run the show. Also, the best way to get better at basketball is to play basketball. Coasting through practices and then sitting on the bench collecting a paycheck doesn't make a player better.

Unfortunately, the key word in that paragraph is "paycheck." Why play for free if someone will pay you to do it? It's a flawed system.

Where do base your opinion on?  The college game and pro game are completely different.

[brewcity77]

I've never understood the argument a player should stay to get better.

In addition to what MM said above, bear in mind that teams are going to draft players who will make them better, especially when it comes to the second round. Would Wesley Matthews have come in and been an instant starter at Utah after his freshman or sophomore year? Would he have been given enough chances and opportunities to ever develop into that, or would he now be playing in Europe? It's not just staying to get better, but staying to develop into your potential. Look at the number of NBA draft picks that end up out of the league within 2 years. My guess would be it's 50-60% of them. And once you're out, the odds of ever getting back in are slim. For the mid-level players, it's often better to stay in school, hone your craft, and make sure that you are as ready as possible when you are given your first shot in the NBA, because you probably won't get a second chance.

[MerrittsMustache]

Where do base your opinion on?  The college game and pro game are completely different.

My opinion is based on the basketball IQs of most one-and-done or HS-to-pro players being significantly lower than 3- or 4-year college players. Kobe Bryant, for example, just recently started figuring out how to play effective team basketball. If you don't believe me, read some Phil Jackson quotes about Kobe sometime.

[Hards Alumni]

again, that is just conjecture.

Phil Jackson talking about Kobe is one coach talking about one player.

Does Kevin Durant have a low BB IQ?  Lebron?

[MerrittsMustache]

again, that is just conjecture.

Phil Jackson talking about Kobe is one coach talking about one player.

Does Kevin Durant have a low BB IQ?  Lebron?

Yes, that is one example. However, most people understand that using examples is a good way to back up an opinion.

Yes, Durant and LeBron have relatively low basketball IQs.

[Hards Alumni]

Yes, that is one example. However, most people understand that using examples is a good way to back up an opinion.

Yes, Durant and LeBron have relatively low basketball IQs.

I disagree.  Lebron does NOT have a low basketball IQ.

[MerrittsMustache]

I disagree.  Lebron does NOT have a low basketball IQ.

I will give you that it's not as low as it was when he first entered the league but, he still has some learning to do.

LeBron is just one example though. Here is a list of drafted players since 2000 who played no more than 1 year in college (other than LeBron and Durant - I apologize if I missed any). How many of these guys would you consider to have a high basketball IQ?

Darius Miles, Ricky Davis, DerMarr Johnson, Jamal Crawford, Donnell Harvey, DeShawn Stevenson, Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Eddy Curry, Eddie Griffin, DeSagana Diop, Rodney White, Zach Randolph, Gerald Wallace, Omar Cook, Ousmane Cisse, Alton Ford, DaJuan Wagner, Jamal Simpson, Ndudi Ebi, James Lang, Robert Swift, Kris Humphries, Dorell Wright, Marvin Williams, Martell Webster, Gerald Green, CJ Miles, Ricky Sanchez, Monta Ellis, Lou Williams, Andray Blatche, Amir Johnson, Tyrus Thomas, Shawne Williams, Dwight Howard, JR Smith, Greg Oden, Mike Conley, Brendan Wright, Spencer Hawes, Thaddeus Young, Javaris Crittenton, Daequan Cook, Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, OJ Mayo, Kevin Love, Jerryd Bayless, Eric Gordon, Anthony Randolph, JJ Hickson, Kosta Koufos, Donte Greene, DeAndre Jordan, Bill Walker, Tyreke Evans, DeMar DeRozan, Jrue Holiday, BJ Mullens, Brandon Jennings, Carmelo Anthony.

EDIT: Somehow left off Carmelo.

[brewcity77]

Darius Miles, Ricky Davis, DerMarr Johnson, Jamal Crawford, Donnell Harvey, DeShawn Stevenson, Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Eddy Curry, Eddie Griffin, DeSagana Diop, Rodney White, Zach Randolph, Gerald Wallace, Omar Cook, Ousmane Cisse, Alton Ford, DaJuan Wagner, Jamal Simpson, Ndudi Ebi, James Lang, Robert Swift, Kris Humphries, Dorell Wright, Marvin Williams, Martell Webster, Gerald Green, CJ Miles, Ricky Sanchez, Monta Ellis, Lou Williams, Andray Blatche, Amir Johnson, Tyrus Thomas, Shawne Williams, Dwight Howard, JR Smith, Greg Oden, Mike Conley, Brendan Wright, Spencer Hawes, Thaddeus Young, Javaris Crittenton, Daequan Cook, Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, OJ Mayo, Kevin Love, Jerryd Bayless, Eric Gordon, Anthony Randolph, JJ Hickson, Kosta Koufos, Donte Greene, DeAndre Jordan, Bill Walker, Tyreke Evans, DeMar DeRozan, Jrue Holiday, BJ Mullens, Brandon Jennings.

Amazed how poor that list is. Yes, there are plenty of studs in there, like Dwight Howard, Derrick Rose, and Brandon Jennings, but in general I would say the 4-year player list I posted above has more quality players in just the past 5 years. I realize that I didn't put all of the 4-year players on my list, but most of the names on that list are simply "meh" type players.

[MUBurrow]

I think the broader point of view for an NBA GM is that its worth missing on half a dozen picks if you find the next superstar with the seventh.  The NBA is dominated by stars unlike any other professional sport.  The haves have the money to get one of the top 10 stars in the league, and the rest do not.  Sure every year there is a good team or two built around playing the right way, high basketball IQs, etc.  But sustained income via ticket and merch, and most of the time team success lives and dies with your team's star.  If you find a player you think can be that star, you pick him as soon as you can.  If you don't someone else will.  High IQ, contributer team types can be found and had relatively cheaply/often in the grand scheme of things.

[martyconlonontherun]

Do you really think Calipari's players have to balance school with basketball?

Players learn the game better by staying in college longer. There is not a lot of teaching going on in the NBA because the players basically run the show. Also, the best way to get better at basketball is to play basketball. Coasting through practices and then sitting on the bench collecting a paycheck doesn't make a player better.

I will use Brandon Jennings as an example. He played in Europe where he had to mature as a person and learn how to play within a system that didn't fit his game instead of going to Arizona and letting his ego get to him (Yes, I know he only went cause he didn't get into Arizona) Now, he's working with Bill Peterson (one of the best player development coaches in the league See: Nash, Steve) and Coach Sampson (who besides his texting problems is a pretty good coach). Not to mention Coach Skiles who was a PG and is known for preaching defense. You think he would've got better coaching in Arizona?

In addition to what MM said above, bear in mind that teams are going to draft players who will make them better, especially when it comes to the second round. Would Wesley Matthews have come in and been an instant starter at Utah after his freshman or sophomore year? Would he have been given enough chances and opportunities to ever develop into that, or would he now be playing in Europe? It's not just staying to get better, but staying to develop into your potential. Look at the number of NBA draft picks that end up out of the league within 2 years. My guess would be it's 50-60% of them. And once you're out, the odds of ever getting back in are slim. For the mid-level players, it's often better to stay in school, hone your craft, and make sure that you are as ready as possible when you are given your first shot in the NBA, because you probably won't get a second chance.

I understand a player who is not good enough shouldn't go to the pros. But if you are a guaranteed first round pick you should leave. The reason why 50-60% of the guys are out of the league in 2 years is because they weren't good enough. College wouldn't have changed that for most guys. Might as well take the pay-check for 2 years instead of none when GMs realized you never developed from 19-22.

[martyconlonontherun]

My opinion is based on the basketball IQs of most one-and-done or HS-to-pro players being significantly lower than 3- or 4-year college players. Kobe Bryant, for example, just recently started figuring out how to play effective team basketball. If you don't believe me, read some Phil Jackson quotes about Kobe sometime.

Depends where Kobe would have went. If he played under Coach K or Coach Smith I would agree that he might have learned to play team ball. But most likely it is just because he is one of the greatest players in the game and he always thought he had to be Alpha-dog. Even Jordan took years to realize to trust his teammates. It isn't really an IQ problem but a ego problem. These guys think they can hit every shot.

[Dawson Rental]

I will give you that it's not as low as it was when he first entered the league but, he still has some learning to do.

LeBron is just one example though. Here is a list of drafted players since 2000 who played no more than 1 year in college (other than LeBron and Durant - I apologize if I missed any). How many of these guys would you consider to have a high basketball IQ?

Darius Miles, Ricky Davis, DerMarr Johnson, Jamal Crawford, Donnell Harvey, DeShawn Stevenson, Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Eddy Curry, Eddie Griffin, DeSagana Diop, Rodney White, Zach Randolph, Gerald Wallace, Omar Cook, Ousmane Cisse, Alton Ford, DaJuan Wagner, Jamal Simpson, Ndudi Ebi, James Lang, Robert Swift, Kris Humphries, Dorell Wright, Marvin Williams, Martell Webster, Gerald Green, CJ Miles, Ricky Sanchez, Monta Ellis, Lou Williams, Andray Blatche, Amir Johnson, Tyrus Thomas, Shawne Williams, Dwight Howard, JR Smith, Greg Oden, Mike Conley, Brendan Wright, Spencer Hawes, Thaddeus Young, Javaris Crittenton, Daequan Cook, Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, OJ Mayo, Kevin Love, Jerryd Bayless, Eric Gordon, Anthony Randolph, JJ Hickson, Kosta Koufos, Donte Greene, DeAndre Jordan, Bill Walker, Tyreke Evans, DeMar DeRozan, Jrue Holiday, BJ Mullens, Brandon Jennings, Carmelo Anthony.

EDIT: Somehow left off Carmelo.

I'll make a case for DeSagana Diop having an excellent basketball IQ.  After only one year of college ball, he was able to tell that he stunk and had little chance of getting better, so rather than staying in school where his inability to improve would be demonstrated, he jumped to the NBA to get his before NBA GM's could get wise.

[reinko]

You have to be crazy if you think Javaris Crittendon doesn't have a high basketball IQ.  And JC, if you are reading this, let me reiterate, that I think you have a stunningly high basketball IQ.

[martyconlonontherun]

Correlation=/=causation.

The reason those guys left early is because they had the raw ability. Whereas the guys who stay and make it to the NBA only make it because of their high IQ, players like Battier. Rarely does a player have extreme athleticism and IQ. College would not necessarily raise that IQ. Eddy Curry wouldn't be any better just cause he went to college.

[Hards Alumni]

Correlation=/=causation.

The reason those guys left early is because they had the raw ability. Whereas the guys who stay and make it to the NBA only make it because of their high IQ, players like Battier. Rarely does a player have extreme athleticism and IQ. College would not necessarily raise that IQ. Eddy Curry wouldn't be any better just cause he went to college.

This is my point as well.