scary article

[MarquetteDano]

You are right.  The bottom schools in the Big 12 and SEC are worse than the Big Ten schools.  I was talking about athletics.  Athletes can choose to do nothing at any of these schools.  Good academics is useful in recruiting because an athlete can choose to get a lot out of his classes if he wants to.  However, athletes can slack at any school (to a reasonable degree of course) they want to and the top schools still find ways to get good players through. 

Agreed.

[ChicosBailBonds]

So the Big East loses their BCS automatic bid in football?  The Big East is still a BCS conference right? They have to be able to find a way to make money.

Yes, the Big East could lose their BCS bid if teams left and the replacement teams were not up to snuff per the BCS.  Definitely could happen.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Could someone give me an example of a college football team that has improved its fortunes by changing conferences?  Also, tell me how changing conferences changed it.   What about a conference that has improved?

To me, low academic standards and recruiting geography keep the SEC and Big 12 on top.  The other teams and conferences can realign all they want.  It is not going to help them.  This begs the question - why do it?  Will it bring the schools more TV money?

More money, allows for a Big Ten championship football game....that's why they are looking into it.  Also why the Pac Ten is looking into it.


As for your question, depends how far back you want to go.  When the Pac 8 expanded to the Pac 10 by adding Arizona and Arizona State, I'd argue it improved both of their programs.  Texas Tech improved by going to the Big 12. 

Of course, there are may examples of programs that went the other way.  Houston got lost in the shuffle with the breakup of the Southwest Conference.  Florida State, Miami and Boston College....jury is still out but doesn't look like the ACC did anything for them, especially Miami. 

The problem with all of these things is that you don't want to be left out when the music stops or it takes years if not decades to position yourself back up for a chance to get back into play.  This is the thing that MU and other schools have to protect against.  Pray that Cottingham and others have a plan is all I've got to say.

[HoopsMalone]

The problem with all of these things is that you don't want to be left out when the music stops or it takes years if not decades to position yourself back up for a chance to get back into play.  This is the thing that MU and other schools have to protect against.  Pray that Cottingham and others have a plan is all I've got to say.

It sounds like right now the absolute worst case scenario is a conference consisting of:

Villanova
Georgetown
St. John's
Seton Hall
Marquette
DePaul
Xavier
Dayton
Providence
And then 2-3 more (I'd like to see St. Joe's.  Maybe SLU.  Notre Dame alums don't seem to think their football team is joining a conference any time soon so they would be an ideal fit for this hypothetical league.)

Even that doomsday scenerio has us in a better conference than 10 years ago.  Is there any reason to think that it could get worse than that?  Those are still some pretty good games, especially assuming that St. John's and DePaul get their acts together.  It would be harder to get TV contracts with those.

And that is the worst case.  UConn, Syracuse, WVU, Pitt, Louisville, ND, and Cincy are the bubble teams to leave.  I would guess that Pitt or WVU go to the Big Ten giving them their title game.  If we can keep Syracuse and UConn in the Big East, then we are still in an elite conference.  Not sure what the future holds for Louisville and Cincy. 

I think St. John's returning to glory will do a lot for the Big East now, and the small private school league it might become.  Games at MSG have to be attractive.

At the end of the day, the conference in the most trouble is probably the A-10.  The Big East will take them over in basketball.

[ChicosBailBonds]

It sounds like right now the absolute worst case scenario is a conference consisting of:

Villanova
Georgetown
St. John's
Seton Hall
Marquette
DePaul
Xavier
Dayton
Providence
And then 2-3 more (I'd like to see St. Joe's.  Maybe SLU.  Notre Dame alums don't seem to think their football team is joining a conference any time soon so they would be an ideal fit for this hypothetical league.)

Even that doomsday scenerio has us in a better conference than 10 years ago.  Is there any reason to think that it could get worse than that?  Those are still some pretty good games, especially assuming that St. John's and DePaul get their acts together.  It would be harder to get TV contracts with those.

And that is the worst case.  UConn, Syracuse, WVU, Pitt, Louisville, ND, and Cincy are the bubble teams to leave.  I would guess that Pitt or WVU go to the Big Ten giving them their title game.  If we can keep Syracuse and UConn in the Big East, then we are still in an elite conference.  Not sure what the future holds for Louisville and Cincy. 

I think St. John's returning to glory will do a lot for the Big East now, and the small private school league it might become.  Games at MSG have to be attractive.

At the end of the day, the conference in the most trouble is probably the A-10.  The Big East will take them over in basketball.

It could be worse.  Nova and G'Town both have football, just at lower levels.  Nova could step up in football if they felt the need to push in that direction. 

[Aughnanure]

It sounds like right now the absolute worst case scenario is a conference consisting of:

Villanova
Georgetown
St. John's
Seton Hall
Marquette
DePaul
Xavier
Dayton
Providence
And then 2-3 more (I'd like to see St. Joe's.  Maybe SLU.  Notre Dame alums don't seem to think their football team is joining a conference any time soon so they would be an ideal fit for this hypothetical league.)

Even that doomsday scenerio has us in a better conference than 10 years ago.  Is there any reason to think that it could get worse than that?  Those are still some pretty good games, especially assuming that St. John's and DePaul get their acts together.  It would be harder to get TV contracts with those.

And that is the worst case.  UConn, Syracuse, WVU, Pitt, Louisville, ND, and Cincy are the bubble teams to leave.  I would guess that Pitt or WVU go to the Big Ten giving them their title game.  If we can keep Syracuse and UConn in the Big East, then we are still in an elite conference.  Not sure what the future holds for Louisville and Cincy.  

I think St. John's returning to glory will do a lot for the Big East now, and the small private school league it might become.  Games at MSG have to be attractive.

At the end of the day, the conference in the most trouble is probably the A-10.  The Big East will take them over in basketball.

Agreed that is probably worst case. I also like St. Joe's, and I'd like to see a few more teams from the western side to spread out the makeup geographically - such as Creighton, SLU, Wichita St, and Butler should definitely be in the conversation

[Aughnanure]

It could be worse.  Nova and G'Town both have football, just at lower levels.  Nova could step up in football if they felt the need to push in that direction.  

I would think that the bigger possibility is that they get into a major conference as a basketball-only school, don't think they need to bring their football up (and they have to debate the advantages as Villanova has a pretty good thing going right now in D2). If there is room after the large reshuffle, I can't imagine the ACC not wanting GTown and Villanova to up their basketball prestige even more, especially when both schools would jump at any chance to a big name conference

[HoopsMalone]

I would think that the bigger possibility is that they get into a major conference as a basketball-only school, don't think they need to bring their football up (and they have to debate the advantages as Villanova has a pretty good thing going right now in D2). If there is room after the large reshuffle, I can't imagine the ACC not wanting GTown and Villanova to up their basketball prestige even more, especially when both schools would jump at any chance to a big name conference

If UConn and Syracuse go to the ACC for football and basketball, then Nova and G-town could be basketball only in the ACC and they would have 16 teams for basketball.  SCARY conference for basketball.  I can't imagine that. 

Who is to say that Marquette cannot jump onto a conference for basketball only too then?  We have a pretty good product and if all of the conferences move to 16-18 teams with a few basketball only schools, we better be on the phone with the Big 10 and the Big 12 to get in on that.  It really would not hurt either of those conferences to add Marq and/or DePaul for basketball only.  The Big Ten Network would get a big ratings bump in basketball season in Chicago and Milwaukee. 

If the ACC is going to set the standard on each conference having a few basketball only schools, then the others might as well too.  We have shown we will make the tournament and we sell a lot of tickets.  MU makes money for a basketball only school. 

[goodgreatgrand]

And that is the worst case.  UConn, Syracuse, WVU, Pitt, Louisville, ND, and Cincy are the bubble teams to leave.  I would guess that Pitt or WVU go to the Big Ten giving them their title game.  If we can keep Syracuse and UConn in the Big East, then we are still in an elite conference.  Not sure what the future holds for Louisville and Cincy. 

No way Syracuse and UConn stick around. Ridiculous. They didnt build a $100 MM football stadium simply to stay competitive. They dove straight into the world of college football and will have every intention of being a part of a conference that will have a BCS bid. The only issue prohibiting Nova from becoming a football school as well is the cost of building a stadium since they are a private school. UConn got tax dollars; Nova will likely receive very little state funding.

And Syracuse was very close to jumping to the ACC the first time before Virginia politics got in the way. I believe it was Boeheim that said Syracuse is a football school that happens to have a very good basketball program. Football games can sell out the Carrier Dome, basketball games cannot.

[Aughnanure]

If UConn and Syracuse go to the ACC for football and basketball, then Nova and G-town could be basketball only in the ACC and they would have 16 teams for basketball.  SCARY conference for basketball.  I can't imagine that.  

Who is to say that Marquette cannot jump onto a conference for basketball only too then?  We have a pretty good product and if all of the conferences move to 16-18 teams with a few basketball only schools, we better be on the phone with the Big 10 and the Big 12 to get in on that.  It really would not hurt either of those conferences to add Marq and/or DePaul for basketball only.  The Big Ten Network would get a big ratings bump in basketball season in Chicago and Milwaukee.  

If the ACC is going to set the standard on each conference having a few basketball only schools, then the others might as well too.  We have shown we will make the tournament and we sell a lot of tickets.  MU makes money for a basketball only school.  

Agreed. Ive had a thought of the 5 conferences adding a few basketball-only teams could work.

Options?
Big Ten: MU, Xavier, Depaul, Butler?
ACC: G-Town, St. John's, Nova?
Big12: MU, Creighton, SLU, Butler or Wichita State (solid athletic programs all around, especially baseball)
Pac10: I guess Gonzaga and St. Mary's are the only good options
SEC:Who knows- George Washington, Old Dominion, Charlotte, Xavier/Dayton (not that far away really) Western Kentucky (since they just joined D1 football in 09)????

[GGGG]

Could someone give me an example of a college football team that has improved its fortunes by changing conferences?  Also, tell me how changing conferences changed it.   What about a conference that has improved?

Huh?  Give me an example of one who *hasn't* improved its fortunes.  They change conferences because they make more $$$$ to support their overall athletic program.  With that standard, it isn't hard to understand why schools switch.

[GGGG]

Just a thought, what if the non-football schools form their own organization.  They could even pay their players a reasonable stipend to attract top talent.  As long as the product on the court is good, the market will be there.

Not a chance.  You want to get into a money game with the football schools?  That would be disasterous.

[HoopsMalone]

Agreed. Ive had a thought of the 5 conferences adding a few basketball-only teams could work.

Options?
Big Ten: MU, Xavier, Depaul, Butler?
ACC: G-Town, St. John's, Nova?
Big12: MU, Creighton, SLU, Butler or Wichita State (solid athletic programs all around, especially baseball)
Pac10: I guess Gonzaga and St. Mary's are the only good options
SEC:Who knows- George Washington, Old Dominion, Charlotte, Xavier/Dayton (not that far away really) Western Kentucky (since they just joined D1 football in 09)????

Memphis could go to the SEC.  I don't know how their football would do, but they would be perfect in basketball. 

I can't imagine ESPN's coverage every day about the ACC if G-town, Cuse, Nova, and UConn joined.  Other conferences would have to take Marquette and DePaul to try to compete in basketball prestige and so the ACC doesn't run away with all of the top seeds in the 96-team tournament.

[Litehouse]

Not a chance.  You want to get into a money game with the football schools?  That would be disasterous.

I guess I went too far down the hypothetical line with this issue.  My thought was what could schools like MU do if the football schools start their own basketball tournament without us.  We would have to do something that would compete for the top talent.  If the other schools kept their "amateur" status, we could pay players to level the playing field.

Paying them wouldn't be that huge of a hit with smaller basketball rosters.  If every player got a $20k/year stipend, that would still only be $260,000/year for a 13 player roster.  Definitely a chunk of change, but still only about 2.6% compared to our $10M annual budget.  That's just an example, maybe they get paid more or less, and maybe you can only pay fewer than 13 players, like the 8, and the rest are "walk-ons" that only get scholarships but not the stipend.

If the football schools decide to pay players also, that would level the playing field, but then they'd also have to pay 100 or so football players the same amount.

[HoopsMalone]

Paying them wouldn't be that huge of a hit with smaller basketball rosters.  If every player got a $20k/year stipend, that would still only be $260,000/year for a 13 player roster.  Definitely a chunk of change, but still only about 2.6% compared to our $10M annual budget.  That's just an example, maybe they get paid more or less, and maybe you can only pay fewer than 13 players, like the 8, and the rest are "walk-ons" that only get scholarships but not the stipend.

Let's not turn into the NBDL. 

Things are going to change.  The Big East as is will not last for long it doesn't look like.  I'd rather see the Big East try to strengthen its football rather than dispand personally. 

Whatever happens, I think the glass is still half full for MU.  We have proven to make the tourney consistently and we can compete against the big boys.  We sell tickets and have a loyal fanbase.  We provide a nice little cash flow for a major conference.  If we do the "Catholic League" thing, we are still playing Nova, G-town, and St. John's at the Garden.  DePaul is going to spend cash to step it up.  St. Joe's and Xavier will allow our conference to be competitive.  If the BCS shrinks to 5 conferences and people look for basketball only schools, we have to be at the top of that list for money makers. 

Fans of Marquette, DePaul, St. John's, Villanova, Georgetown, Xavier, and Gonzaga should not worry too much.  We have consistently good products and we make money.  Something good will happen.  Maybe even something better than now.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Huh?  Give me an example of one who *hasn't* improved its fortunes.  They change conferences because they make more $$$$ to support their overall athletic program.  With that standard, it isn't hard to understand why schools switch.

He may have meant competitive fortunes.  Certainly some teams have gone "down" as a result of their switches.  Miami (FL) seems to be one.  Houston when they were out of the Southwest.  Boston College, etc.

[bma725]

Fans of Marquette, DePaul, St. John's, Villanova, Georgetown, Xavier, and Gonzaga should not worry too much.  We have consistently good products and we make money.  Something good will happen.  Maybe even something better than now.

Fans of those schools and of any basketball only school should worry, and worry a lot, because what's coming isn't going to be good.  Basketball money is chump change compared to football money and all the conferences out there know that.  They have no intention of adding anymore basketball only schools schools to their conferences.  They don't want to share money, or publicity with them, nor do they want to give them a say in conference matters. 

This isn't a situation where one of the basketball only schools is going to improve their standing.  This is a situation where the basketball only schools are going to be left behind.

[Litehouse]

Fans of those schools and of any basketball only school should worry, and worry a lot, because what's coming isn't going to be good.  Basketball money is chump change compared to football money and all the conferences out there know that.  They have no intention of adding anymore basketball only schools schools to their conferences.  They don't want to share money, or publicity with them, nor do they want to give them a say in conference matters. 

This isn't a situation where one of the basketball only schools is going to improve their standing.  This is a situation where the basketball only schools are going to be left behind.

This is what I'm most afraid of, that we'll basically find ourselves in a basketball version of the FCS in football vs. the BCS.  That's why I'm thinking what schools like us could do about it, like form our own division and pay players to get top talent.

[HoopsMalone]

I guess I dont see whats wrong with a conference of Marquette, DePaul, St. John's, Villanova, Georgetown, Seton Hall, Xavier, Dayton, St. Joes and Notre Dame (and they keep fb independence).  If that is the doomsday scenerio, it is not that bad of a place.  If there was any way to justify Gonzaga's frequent trips, I wish we could have them in there too.

Are people suggesting that if you do not have a football team then you are out of D1?  Because I see the conference as a step up from C-USA personally.  Our cash flow would go down from the Big East days, but we still were able to pay Crean a decent amount and make money for Marquette while in C-USA weren't we?  

[Tugg Speedman]

I guess I dont see whats wrong with a conference of Marquette, DePaul, St. John's, Villanova, Georgetown, Seton Hall, Xavier, Dayton, St. Joes and Notre Dame (and they keep fb independence).  If that is the doomsday scenerio, it is not that bad of a place.  If there was any way to justify Gonzaga's frequent trips, I wish we could have them in there too.

The problem is what kind of TV contract will this conference generate versus the Big East now?  I'm guessing less, far less.

Also No way 'Nova allows St. Joes in the same conference as them.  Same way we would never be in the same conference as UWM, or Cincy and Xavier, or DePaul with Loyola.  The exception is NYC as its is big enough for SH and St. Johns.

[bma725]

I guess I dont see whats wrong with a conference of Marquette, DePaul, St. John's, Villanova, Georgetown, Seton Hall, Xavier, Dayton, St. Joes and Notre Dame (and they keep fb independence).  If that is the doomsday scenerio, it is not that bad of a place.  If there was any way to justify Gonzaga's frequent trips, I wish we could have them in there too.

Are people suggesting that if you do not have a football team then you are out of D1?  Because I see the conference as a step up from C-USA personally.  Our cash flow would go down from the Big East days, but we still were able to pay Crean a decent amount and make money for Marquette while in C-USA weren't we? 

It's not that we'd be out of D1, it's the D1 as it has been known would cease to exist.  The football schools would decide they've had enough of being governed by the NCAA, and they've had enough with sharing money with the basketball schools, so they would split off to form their own collegiate athletic association without any basketball only schools and without an small schools.  If that happens, and there has been some talk about it for years, we and all the rest of the basketball only schools are dead in the water.

[HoopsMalone]

The problem is what kind of TV contract will this conference generate versus the Big East now?  I'm guessing less, far less.

Also No way 'Nova allows St. Joes in the same conference as them.  Same way we would never be in the same conference as UWM, or Cincy and Xavier, or DePaul with Loyola.  The exception is NYC as its is big enough for SH and St. Johns.

I will concede our cashflow is going to go down some, but it still has to be better than CUSA was.  Fair point about St. Joe's and Nova.  Maybe we would have to look at Duquense?  UMass to get into the Boston area?  Rhode Island?

I just think we will get something that is better than CUSA and that is a half full cup for me.  

[Marquette84]

It sounds like right now the absolute worst case scenario is a conference consisting of:

Villanova
Georgetown
St. John's
Seton Hall
Marquette
DePaul
Xavier
Dayton
Providence
And then 2-3 more (I'd like to see St. Joe's.  Maybe SLU.  Notre Dame alums don't seem to think their football team is joining a conference any time soon so they would be an ideal fit for this hypothetical league.)

This is hardly the worst case scenario.

The almost worst case scenario is that the football schools leave the NCAA for a BCS Basketball alliance, and that alliance forms their own own post-season tournament. It is wrong to assume that we'll be at the same level at the football schools, with conference affiliation as our only change.

The Big Money programs see $545 million per year going to the NCAA, and it peeves them to no end that that they have to share it with 347 D1 schools.   They could set up a new post-season tournament--similar to BCS in football--and limit participation to the existing 120 BCS football schools. 

But it could get worse. 

The other mistaken assumption is that our future is tied to Villanova, Georgetown, Dayton, etc.  Those program have strong basketball programs and have an existing Division I football program.  People make the mistake of callilng them basketball-only.  There is no doubt in my mind that if the BCS schools try to split off and form a basketball tournament, those four schools would seek to upgrade their football programs so their basketball teams could participate at the higher level.   

So the absolute worst case is that we'd be the best program in a new division a step above D2, but a step below today's major basketball programs. 

[mu_hilltopper]

Curious .. Congress often rattles its sabre about sport changes it doesn't like, usually threatening organization's anti-trust status .. NFL, MLB, etc. 

Does the NCAA have any sort of status like this?  You gotta figure there are more than enough congressmen from bball-only schools that would try to stop the NCAA/BCS from the BCS only teams abandoning the others.

[Tugg Speedman]

It's not that we'd be out of D1, it's the D1 as it has been known would cease to exist.  The football schools would decide they've had enough of being governed by the NCAA, and they've had enough with sharing money with the basketball schools, so they would split off to form their own collegiate athletic association without any basketball only schools and without an small schools.  If that happens, and there has been some talk about it for years, we and all the rest of the basketball only schools are dead in the water.

BMA ...

For this to happen, university presidents would have to approve it.  As a group, they have been avoiding the appearance of chasing money because they opens the door to lots of other things, including paying players.

Do you think University Presidents are ready to change their stance and go after money instead of the higher ideals of the "student athlete?"

Regarding paying players, who pays them?  Don't rule out the idea that NBA players will draft players and send them to college for a year or two.  Imagine MU or Wisc. as a minor league for the Bucks.