Pomeroy odds for Marquette through the whole tournament

[ChicosBailBonds]

50.9% chance to win first round
33.4% chance to go to the Sweet 16
13.1% chance to advance to Elite 8
4.6% chance to reach Final Four
1.3% chance to reach title game
0.4% chance to win the whole thing


He gives Duke the best chance to win it at all at 24.8%.  Kansas at 22.0%.  No one else above 6.3%

[TallTitan34]

[GregClausenForever]

Ken Pom also has the Washington-MU game as the highlighted team in his FanMatch. 

In other words, it's the most likely to be a close game.  I didn't really need the FanMatch to know that.

By the by, anyone see that Wash's two leading guards are 5'8" and 5'11"?

[warriors1991]

"Million to one? So you're saying there's a chance........."

[Benny B]

"Million to one? So you're saying there's a chance........."

0.4% is a 1 in 250 chance.  By Lloyd's standards, we're practically a lock.

[speri]

Chicos, Do you have asourse for your data?  I'd like to take a look at it.

[Henry Sugar]

I don't know exactly where Chicos got his numbers, but here are a few other sources.

http://hoyaprospectus.blogspot.com/2010/03/st-louis-bracket-log5-prediction.html

http://www.wagesofwins.com/Pomeroy10.htm

[drbchilds]

hahahahaa!!   That was good!!!!!

[Lennys Tap]

50.9% chance to win first round
33.4% chance to go to the Sweet 16
13.1% chance to advance to Elite 8
4.6% chance to reach Final Four
1.3% chance to reach title game
0.4% chance to win the whole thing


He gives Duke the best chance to win it at all at 24.8%.  Kansas at 22.0%.  No one else above 6.3%

Could you please provide a link for Pomeroy's full tournament analysis? Thanks in advance

[warriors1991]

0.4% is a 1 in 250 chance.  By Lloyd's standards, we're practically a lock.

Benny, it was the quote from the movie. Not an actual statistical analysis.

[marquette99]

Yeah, there guards are our height and their star is 6-foot-6 and supposed to go 2 spots before lazar in the mock draft.  This would clearly be the 6-foot-6 and under national title game.  Let's just hope coobie is in these guys grill like he was against scottie

[paulpogo]

Chicos, Do you have asourse for your data?  I'd like to take a look at it.

bump

[Benny B]

Benny, it was the quote from the movie. Not an actual statistical analysis.

Yes... I saw the movie.  Probably enough times that I could probably recite 80% by memory.  I was simply saying that if 1 in a million is considered "a chance" then 1 in 250 is "a lock", relatively speaking.

What's the color for when you're not being sarcastic, but you're not being serious either?

[ChicosBailBonds]

Chicos, Do you have asourse for your data?  I'd like to take a look at it.

It's based off Pomeroy's data


http://www.wagesofwins.com/NCAA642010.htm


http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AiveC5LYBJ9VdFhDSWo4QldRSVkyd1ZtRGRSNTBOM3c&hl=en

[🏀]

Yes... I saw the movie.  Probably enough times that I could probably recite 80% by memory.  I was simply saying that if 1 in a million is considered "a chance" then 1 in 250 is "a lock", relatively speaking.

What's the color for when you're not being sarcastic, but you're not being serious either?

Technicolor

[Henry Sugar]

Pomeroy goes in depth.  Interestingly enough, he gives Wisconsin the best chances of making it to the FF (barely).  This, of course, is inaccurate.  But the rest is fun reading.

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=994

(11) Washington vs. (6) Marquette (San Jose: Thursday, 7:20)
My personal choice as the game to watch in the East region first round. For one thing it's a virtual toss-up, with Buzz Williams' team being such a slight favorite as not to concern us unduly. And you can watch a lot of first round games in this tournament before you come across two senior standouts like Quincy Pondexter and Lazar Hayward. Pondexter is wrapping up a criminally overlooked year of relentless yet highly efficient paint attacks. And Hayward entered the season knowing he would have to carry this team. (Though make no mistake, 47 percent three-point shooting from emerging sophomore Darius Johnson-Odom has certainly come in handy as well.)

The clash in styles should be no less interesting. Marquette's a perimeter-oriented team that sinks their threes and goes slow. (Williams has more players shooting over 45 percent on their threes than some entire conferences.) The Huskies figure to control the glass on both ends and are single-handedly resisting the Pac-10's otherwise unanimous shift toward a Big Ten pace. Neither team commits many turnovers. I want to see this game.

[CTWarrior]

50.9% chance to win first round
33.4% chance to go to the Sweet 16

If this is true, he gives us a 65.6% chance of beating New Mexico if we beat Washington.  That seems a little high, plus I guess a small portion of that would include the odds if New Mexico lost to Montana.

[ChicosBailBonds]

If this is true, he gives us a 65.6% chance of beating New Mexico if we beat Washington.  That seems a little high, plus I guess a small portion of that would include the odds if New Mexico lost to Montana.

Correct...he only gives New Mexico a 76% chance of winning their 1st round game and a 30.9% chance of getting to the Sweet 16.

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=994

[avid1010]

It's interesting because you see how valuable seeding and placement is in his analysis.  Duke has a pretty easy path to the FF, so it's likely they only have to win two big games to take the championship, while other teams have to win more games against high quality opponents.  That being said...I'd bet my house Duke doesn't win it all.

[BM1090]

If Texas AM makes it to the Sweet 16, they will take down Duke