UConn / Villanova

[TallTitan34]

UConn is up 7 early in the second half at Villanova.

I want Nova to win as it helps our RPI (we played Nova twice) plus it keeps UConn away from us in the standings.

[robmufan]

I think we need UCONN to win to make that road win look even better!

[BM1090]

Nova needs to win to keep Uconn off the bubble. That should be the most important thing

[PGsHeroes32]

yeah i think a UCONN win may be better for us

[TallTitan34]

A UConn win hurts our RPI and moves UConn closer to us and closer to the bubble.

No sir!

[reinko]

I'm glad we have consensus thus far.  :p

[robmufan]

A UConn win hurts our RPI and moves UConn closer to us and closer to the bubble.

No sir!

All right RPI master, how much does it exactly hurt us?  And if we take care of business, UCONN should be no threat to us even if they win this game.

[TallTitan34]

All right RPI master, how much does it exactly hurt us?  And if we take care of business, UCONN should be no threat to us even if they win this game.

MU's winning percentage is 0.25 then their opponent's is 0.50 then their opponent's opponent's is 0.25.

A road win and home loss is worth 1.4.
A road loss and a home win is worth 0.6.

So if Nova won: 0.6 + 0.6 -0.6
If UConn won: 1.4 - 1.4 - 1.4

I'm not sure how it all works out but we come out ahead with the Nova win.

[reinko]

Also TT, if UCONN wins, it could boost their own RPI, to get closer to top 50, thus helping us in our record versus RPI top 50.

[Benny B]

MU's winning percentage is 0.25 then their opponent's is 0.50 then their opponent's opponent's is 0.25.

A road win and home loss is worth 1.4.
A road loss and a home win is worth 0.6.

So if Nova won: 0.6 + 0.6 -0.6
If UConn won: 1.4 - 1.4 - 1.4

I'm not sure how it all works out but we come out ahead with the Nova win.

Not how the RPI works.  When calculating your RPI, you only weight games that you play, not your opponents'.  Nevertheless, because we played Nova twice, their record has twice the effect on MU's RPI as UCONN does.  So if you're going strictly by RPI, then you want Nova to win.

My concern is not with RPI... my concern is with body of work.  A UCONN win can potentially put MU's win over UCONN back into the "signature win" category and gets MU closer to another win vs. top 50 (per reinko's comment).  Those two items are worth far and away much more than the marginal negative effect a Nova loss would have on MU's RPI.

[TallTitan34]

That's a good point reinko.

Thanks for the RPI tip Benny.

[tower912]

This looks the UConn team everybody was expecting.   Using their size well and their guards are playing under control.   

[NumenFlumenque]

This looks the UConn team everybody was expecting.   Using their size well and their guards are playing under control.   

And it helps when you're able to attempt 44 free throws.

[tower912]

They attempted 44 FT's on the road because they held on to the ball, made smart decisions and attacked the rack. 

[PGsHeroes32]

Like someone already mentioned, UCONN isnt a threat to our tourney hopes anyways. They are far enough behind us where the only way they catch up is if we choke. So if we just win games and finish out these last 6 at 4-2 we are IN. The UCONN win could help us in the long run like everyone also said because it gives us a quality win.

[NumenFlumenque]

They attempted 44 FT's on the road because they held on to the ball, made smart decisions and attacked the rack. 

Very true, except for Stanley Robinson. Nothing like having the same amount of turnovers and points. I was merely pointing out that that is a lot of free throws.

[karavotsos]

This looks the UConn team everybody was expecting.   Using their size well and their guards are playing under control.   

They're the exact same team they were yesterday.  They're a full-court team, and when you play defense on them 30 feet from the basket it plays right into their hands.  They still can't shoot from the perimeter.  Edwards aside, their big men are offensively challenged in the half court, and Edwards isn't even that great.  As Bilas said at one point, they run less offense than anyone in the country.  Play full-court, play helter-skelter, and they can beat anyone, including Villanova, who likes to play that way.  If UConn would have played E. Carolina circa 02-03, UConn. would have lost again tonight.