Joe Lunardi, the 6 team Big East Bubble

[TomW1365]

http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/insider/news/story?id=4896789&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fncb%2finsider%2fnews%2fstory%3fid%3d4896789

Who's an insider that can post this article?

[robmufan]

Every week, with the new arrival of Joe Lunardi's Bracketology, he also pens "Behind the Bracket," which goes deeper into the issues within his popular seed-projecting feature.

Who's hot?
Teams' records in their past 12 games.

Team Name   Record
Butler Bulldogs   12-0
Siena Saints   12-0
Murray State Racers   12-0
Kansas Jayhawks   11-1
Syracuse Orange   11-1
Kentucky Wildcats   11-1
Villanova Wildcats   11-1
Gonzaga Bulldogs   11-1
Northern Iowa Panthers   11-1
Cornell Big Red   11-1
St. Mary's Gaels   11-1
Northeastern Huskies   11-1
Oakland Golden Grizzlies   11-1
Robert Morris Colonials   11-1
Morehead State Eagles   11-1
First off, unlike how today's Bracketology shakes out, let me say that I do not think the Big East will end up with as few as six bids to the NCAA tournament next month. Furthermore, it's almost equally unlikely the Atlantic 10 can sustain the record six teams it has placed into today's bracket.

Then again --

What we have in the Big East is a six-team bubble in the middle of the standings in which only two games separate the Louisville Cardinals from the Connecticut Huskies. All six teams have serious flaws in their respective profiles, yet we have to order them in case there are available at-large spots (in today's case, one).


Times like these call for a tool not even available to the NCAA Selection Committee (although I have offered it). It has become essential in this era of unbalanced schedules and non-round robin play. What the Committee does manually and by observation, we have in place with our Conference RPI and Conference SOS columns.

This unique intra-conference data helped us order the following:

Evaluating the Big East
Let's dive in.

Team   Conf. Record   Conf. RPI   RPI   SOS   S-Curve
Louisville Cardinals   6-4   42   27   39   No. 47 (at large)
Marquette Golden Eagles   6-5   60   42   36   No. 48 (out)
Cincinnati Bearcats   5-6   56   63   42   No. 49 (out)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish   6-5   59   43   34   No. 50 (out)
South Florida Bulls   5-6   49   53   24   No. 51 (out)
Connecticut Huskies   4-6   57   86   64   No. 52 (out)
As you can see, our ranking doesn't go strictly by the numbers. Cincinnati's superior non-conference profile gives it an edge on Notre Dame, and the Irish season sweep of South Florida lifts ND in that comparison. However, the general rule is that -- barring something obvious -- the Committee rarely violates what I like to call the natural intra-conference "pecking order." This is because they understand (and I agree) that an 18-game league season is an awfully good tiebreaker.

An even better tiebreaker is what I like to call "separation." This occurs when a league self-identifies its NCAA contenders through an obvious break in performance. In the Atlantic 10, the top teams have so clearly separated from the pack that it creates natural dividing lines for the Committee. To wit:

Evaluating the A-10
A parting in the Atlantic.

Team   Conf. Record   Conf. RPI   RPI   SOS   S-Curve
Temple Owls   7-2   17   40   108   No. 20
Xavier Musketeers   8-2   27   18   72   No. 30
Rhode Island Rams   7-2   12   62   146   No. 35
Charlotte 49ers   8-1   46   37   122   No. 39
Richmond Spiders   7-2   31   35   92   No. 40
Dayton Flyers   5-3   33   83   137   No. 45
The further we get into the season, the more validity can be ascribed to the intra-conference data. For now the Atlantic 10 can enjoy the rarified air that comes with placing more teams into the field than any non-BCS conference in history. The Big East, meanwhile, waits for separation in the middle of the league and hopes it doesn't need a conference tournament to artificially slice and dice its bubble teams.

An old coach told me once that "road wins are what separate teams in really good leagues." To that end, the six A-10 teams listed above are 34-22 in true road games. Conversely, the Big East bubble group is 8-29. These totals include both league and non-league games. I believe that if BCS teams played more out-of-conference road games, they might be better equipped to win away from home in league play. But that's a different story for a different day, I 'spose.

Big Wins This Week
• Dayton Flyers: It was essential for the Flyers to gain a split with the Xavier Musketeers, and they did in blowout fashion.

• Florida Gators: The Gators lifted themselves back into the field with a tough road win at the Alabama Crimson Tide.

• Louisville Cardinals: Imagine the Big East clutter being even worse if the Cardinals hadn't handled UConn at home.

• Northern Iowa Panthers: The Panthers all but assured their NCAA plans by gaining a much-needed split with the Wichita State Shockers.

• Texas A&M Aggies: Winning at the Missouri Tigers helped make the Aggies relevant again in the Big 12.


Getty Images
May be straight-up over for this one now.
Bad Losses This Week
• Florida State Seminoles: Sweeping the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets certainly helps FSU, but being swept by the Maryland Terrapins hurts more.

• Michigan State Spartans: Injuries notwithstanding, back-to-back losses at the Wisconsin Badgers and Illinois Fighting Illini may have ended Sparty's hopes for a No. 1 seed.

• North Carolina Tar Heels: The Heels needed at least a split at the Virginia Tech Hokies and Maryland. No such luck.

Procedural Bumps
Some teams will appear in the bracket higher or lower than they should. That's because prohibitive factors such as tournament venue (teams can't play on their home courts) and opponents force teams to switch lines. Here's who had to be shifted this week.

Team Name   Situation
Xavier Musketeers   ROSE: from No. 8 seed in South to No. 7 seed
Florida Gators   ROSE: from No. 11 seed in South to No. 10 seed
Old Dominion Monarchs   ROSE: from No. 12 seed in West to No. 11 seed
Maryland Terrapins   FELL: from No. 7 seed in South to No. 8 seed
Clemson Tigers   FELL: from No. 10 seed in Midwest to No. 11 seed
Oklahoma State Cowboys   FELL: from No. 11 seed in South to No. 12 seed
• Virginia Cavaliers: The Cavs had a great chance to be in the field, but couldn't hang on against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at home.

• William and Mary Tribe: Being routed at Old Dominion pretty much ended the Tribe's at-large hopes.

Games Of The Week
Tonight: Villanova Wildcats vs. West Virginia Mountaineers

At a minimum, this game is for a No. 1 seed in Friday's bracket.

Tuesday: Purdue Boilermakers vs. Michigan State Spartans

A different test, both important, for each team in this Big Ten clash.

Tuesday: Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores

Vols will be looking to return the favor of winning on Vandy's home court.

Wednesday: Florida State Seminoles vs. Clemson Tigers

The loser here could be looking at the wrong side of the bubble.

Wednesday: Charlotte 49ers vs. Dayton Flyers

The current A-10 leader visits the pre-season favorite.

Wednesday: UNLV Rebels vs. New Mexico Lobos

Two of the Mountain West's three co-leaders collide in Vegas.

Wednesday: Florida Gators vs. South Carolina Gamecocks

Gamecocks need another legitimate scalp to get back in the conversation.

Thursday: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Seton Hall Pirates

A decent road win may be all the Irish need to land in the next bracket.

Thursday: Washington Huskies at California Golden Bears

This would be quite a spot for UW to post their first road win of the year.

Thursday: St. Mary's Gaels vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs.

Stay up late to see if the Gaels can finally take down the 'Zags.

[MUCrew]

Here's what I got out of it:

Dan Patrick: With the first nine months of the Baseketball postseason out of the way, the playoff picture is starting to emerge.

Kenny Mayne: So, with last night's victory over Boston, next week the Milwaukee Beers must beat Indianapolis in order to advance to Charlotte. That's in an effort to reduce their magic number to three.

Dan Patrick: Right, and then the Beers can advance to the National Eastern Division North to play Tampa.

Kenny Mayne: So, if the Beers beat Detroit and Denver beats Atlanta in the American Southwestern Division East Northern, then Milwaukee goes to the Denslow Cup, unless Baltimore can upset Buffalo and Charlotte ties Toronto, then Oakland would play LA and Pittsburgh in a blind choice round robin. And if no clear winner emerges from all of this, a two-man sack race will be held on consecutive Sundays until a champion can be crowned.

[ChicosBailBonds]

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

[Wade4Life]

If he thinks only 6 teams from the big east will make the dance he hasn't watched any big east games this year. 4 teams in the top 10 and only 6 teams make the field of 64?!?!?! WOW

I see at least 8 teams in the tourney this year.

[MU B2002]

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

First 5 out are all Big East.

[bradforster]

Lunardi hasn't stated only six Big East teams will end up in the tournament come the end of the season.  He is predicting that if the tournament started this week only six teams would be included in the field.  With all of his "first four out" contenders coming from the Big East, chances are he believes 7 or 8 may be there when everything shakes out.  His bracketology is an assessment of tourney resumes up to this point, not a forecast for the end of the season.   

[PGsHeroes32]

exactly brad, its all as of now. The big east will end up sending 8 teams with an outside shot at 9 but thats unlikely. They all still get their shots to play one another. We gotta like MU's chances as we get a crack at everyone of those 5 other teams besides UCONN who we already beat.

[HoopsMalone]

I dont like seeing Xavier as a 7 seed.  They have 7 losses.

[OhioGoldenEagle]

I dont like seeing Xavier as a 7 seed.  They have 7 losses.

Agreed - It seems like the reduced expectations for the Big East coming into the season are influencing the bracketologists out there.  Xavier as an example, is included in a majority of projected fields, yet they play in a far inferior conference as we know, and in reference to us, got beat pretty bad bad a middle of the pack Big East team.  Yet somehow they are in as a 7 seed, and MU not even in.  That's asinine!  I guarantee if Xavier had the same schedule as us, they would have 2-3 more losses and well out of the tourney.  I can't stand Lunardi's A-10 bias.   

[HoopsMalone]

Agreed - It seems like the reduced expectations for the Big East coming into the season are influencing the bracketologists out there.  Xavier as an example, is included in a majority of projected fields, yet they play in a far inferior conference as we know, and in reference to us, got beat pretty bad bad a middle of the pack Big East team.  Yet somehow they are in as a 7 seed, and MU not even in.  That's asinine!  I guarantee if Xavier had the same schedule as us, they would have 2-3 more losses and well out of the tourney.  I can't stand Lunardi's A-10 bias.   

Right, maybe if we beat Xavier by double digits we would be in their spot.

[Jacks DC]

The CBS Sports projection by Jerry Palm has six Big East teams getting in, with MU getting in as a 12 seed.  He has Cincinnati and South Florida in the first four out.  Right now it is very hard to make a case for Louisville over Marquette, both at 15-8 overall.