Hmmm... Are we better than last year?

[RawdogDX]

Does anyone here think we will win over 12 games in conference?  Anyone?  Any takers?  ...  

No.  And why?  Because we aren't as good.  And that's without one of our key players for the last 4 games.  We would have won a bare minimum of 1 of those.



PNR, if you want to say he has more 'ability' that is a completely different argument than 'he is better.' He has put up about 13 a game through 5 conference games, not comparable to our all time points leader.  

[RawdogDX]

I don't know about that. During the first half of conference play last year MU was a helluva lot of fun to watch. They had an extra gear they'd find and just pull away.

I remember dozens of "thank god for buzz, this is the most fun MU team to watch in decades." posts last year.  Further more there were a ton of who was better, 09 or 03 discussions.  I suppose that will be the next thread, is this year as good as 03?

People have no memory what so ever.  I feel like I'm talking to a bunch of stoners.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Just to address the BE for last year vs this year.

So far, the average pomeroy strength of the BE is better this year (0.827) than last year (0.809).  The difference is that the playing field is more level.  The top teams this year (0.934) are not as strong as last year (0.948), but the bottom teams this year (0.719) are better than last year (0.669).

You have to play every team in the BE.  Not just the best teams.

Yes, but the population pool is comparing this year's Big East to this year's Big East.  In other words, Pomeroy or any other rating can't compare one year to the next year because they are different.  They can claim to, but not in reality.  This year's MU UCONN is different than last year's UCONN....different players, etc.

I agree that you have to play each team and that is all rolled up in an evaluation, but there is no way to accurately portray last year vs this year in a true fashion. 


On the question where we would be this year....last year's MU team would be 4-1 or 5-0 right now this year and likely 1 overall loss (probably at Wisconsin).  IMO

Last year we won 12 games against the greatest Big East ever.  This year we might win 9, 10 or 11 in a much different Big East.  No way in hell last year's team loses to NC State at home or loses an 18 point lead on a neutral court to Florida State. 

DJO is a wonderful talent....really impressed with him.  But if put him on last year's team, he doesn't get nearly as many touches and is not the focal point of the offense like he is this year.  There's a reason why Hayward was the 4th option last year and Butler the 6th....too many talented guys in front of them.  DJO would have the same problem, not enough balls to go around, not enough minutes.  As a result, he would not be the most talented offensive player because his role would be limited.

[HoopsMalone]

Not sure as a freshman DJO would have been the best offensive player on last year's team.  As for who DJO is this year, I agree with PRN, that DJO is as good offensively as Matthews or McNeal was last year.  DJO in my opinion is/will be the best player at MU since D-Wade.  I could see him potentially being a candidate for going to the NBA draft early...after his junior season.  Also, DJO right now is absolutely strong enough to have been able to stop McNeal, maybe Matthews from going to the rack.

DJO has scored points in a few games this year and looks good.  Dameon Mason had a string of impressive games as a freshman too where he looked like a pretty good scorer.  Let's not put the third leading scorer on a bottom half Big East team ahead of two top ten all time scorers just yet.  

DJO has hit some threes and has made some nice moves to the hoop.  He is a finesse player and is highly-skilled.  McNeal and Matthews also had a lot of skill, but also had pretty big shoulders and could finish inside when they got into the lane.  DJO penetrates and kind of floats it up there.  DJO skilled shooter and finesse penetrator like McGrady and Matthews and McNeal were skilled-power guards like Jordan.  (And yes, McGrady and Jordan are a universe better than these guys, but just trying to comment on style.)  Both are obviously very effective, but skilled power guards are tougher to stop in my opinion.  

I don't know what your basis is for thinking that DJO has the footspeed defensively to keep players like Matthews and McNeal out of the lane.  And then even if he could keep up with them, he does not have the athleticism to jump as high as they could in the lane or the strength to make their shots tougher.  Marquette's defense at the guard has not been all that strong this year at all.  The three amigos would have had a field day against this year's team.  

McNeal threw up a lot of crap, but so does DJO.  I look forward to seeing him improve, but we cannot crown DJO based on beating Providence at home.  

[rocky_warrior]

I don't know what your basis is for thinking that DJO has the footspeed defensively to keep players like Matthews and McNeal out of the lane.  And then even if he could keep up with them, he does not have the athleticism to jump as high as they could in the lane or the strength to make their shots tougher.  

Um....I think you must have missed Buzz's quote that DJO is the most athletic player on the team, and the early gym reports about DJO from Rosiak.  Remember, DJO was in a boot for the early part of the "practice" year...

In the seventh game, DJO knocked down a pair of shots -- a three from the right wing and an alley-oop layin -- and also showed some a mean handle on one play where he got into the lane, spun and fired a pretty no-look pass to Otule, who was caught by surprise but grabbed it and was fouled.

I don't have a real sense on how he is defensively yet, but he's clearly got the athletic ability and quickness to be a pain on that end. He's also a very impressive leaper -- he measured in with a 33-inch vertical, best among the newcomers so far -- and threw down an array of windmills and other power dunks with ease after the games were done.

He's clearly got the skills to play the point, but should be a real handful at the 2 when put in positions to take advantage of his strengths. He'll play major minutes from the outset.

DJO also was the best tester of the newcomers; aside from his vertical he also posted a 3.11 25-yard dash and put up 185 pounds 12 times on the bench press. He also weighed in at 196.

[Hards Alumni]

DJO has scored points in a few games this year and looks good.  Dameon Mason had a string of impressive games as a freshman too where he looked like a pretty good scorer.  Let's not put the third leading scorer on a bottom half Big East team ahead of two top ten all time scorers just yet.  

DJO has hit some threes and has made some nice moves to the hoop.  He is a finesse player and is highly-skilled.  McNeal and Matthews also had a lot of skill, but also had pretty big shoulders and could finish inside when they got into the lane.  DJO penetrates and kind of floats it up there.  DJO skilled shooter and finesse penetrator like McGrady and Matthews and McNeal were skilled-power guards like Jordan.  (And yes, McGrady and Jordan are a universe better than these guys, but just trying to comment on style.)  Both are obviously very effective, but skilled power guards are tougher to stop in my opinion.  

I don't know what your basis is for thinking that DJO has the footspeed defensively to keep players like Matthews and McNeal out of the lane.  And then even if he could keep up with them, he does not have the athleticism to jump as high as they could in the lane or the strength to make their shots tougher.  Marquette's defense at the guard has not been all that strong this year at all.  The three amigos would have had a field day against this year's team.  

McNeal threw up a lot of crap, but so does DJO.  I look forward to seeing him improve, but we cannot crown DJO based on beating Providence at home.  

I agree with most of this until you started saying that DJO couldn't jump.  Youtube him and you will see you are wrong there.

And again, I agree with Chicos.  Okay, I was going for an extreme viewpoint when I said we'd be undefeated at this point... but really, I don't think that that comment was a stretch.  I just think a lot of people see the POTENTIAL of this team rather than the REALITY of this team.  It is a lot of fun to watch... especially knowing that we have some of these guys for the next 2-3 years rather than just the one last year with the amigos. 

I think that anyone who puts this team up there with last years team is looking at an incomplete picture.

[HoopsMalone]

Um....I think you must have missed Buzz's quote that DJO is the most athletic player on the team, and the early gym reports about DJO from Rosiak.  Remember, DJO was in a boot for the early part of the "practice" year...

DJO is good.  It is not a matter of him crossing a threshold of being an athlete, being skilled, being a good basketball player, etc.  He clearly is.  Being the most athletic player on Marquette is really saying something in the last couple years so he is someone to be excited about.  The threshold question is whether he is better than Matthews or McNeal, which I don't see how you can say that.  Those guys were great athletes too and obviously skilled enough to score a lot of points.  They scored on just as good of athletes as DJO.

I also did not say or mean that DJO cannot jump, though I can see how it was inferred.  I don't see him covering a Matthews or a McNeal and having the ability to elevate with them and alter their shots.  Those guys can jump too.

I don't really see him as a defensive stopper against someone like a McNeal or Matthews though.  Who has he really guarded and slowed stopped?  Being able to guard McNeal or Matthews is no joke.  It does not make you a bad player or defender if you can't.  It is just saying a lot in my opinion.  

[Henry Sugar]

Yes, but the population pool is comparing this year's Big East to this year's Big East.  In other words, Pomeroy or any other rating can't compare one year to the next year because they are different.  They can claim to, but not in reality.  This year's MU UCONN is different than last year's UCONN....different players, etc.

I agree that you have to play each team and that is all rolled up in an evaluation, but there is no way to accurately portray last year vs this year in a true fashion. 

I've provided all manners of comparison between last year's team and this year's team.  It can be done.  Points per possession and points allowed per possession are objective.  Reducing the data pool to Top 100 opponents helps normalize the data.  Expanding the data set to include more than just conference opponents provides additional information.

I started with a preconceived notion regarding both the quality of last year's team and the quality of the BE.  I thought that hands-down the team last year was better and that the BE was a stronger conference.  But then I looked at the data, and it told a different story.  And the different story has two parts:

• Last year's team was better, but not significantly better against Top 100 opponents.  Not just conference opponents.
• The top teams in the BE were better last year, but the overall strength of the BE is better this year

What you are doing is saying, "the data does not meet my preconceived notion of the truth, so I am attacking the data".

(Maybe at the end of the BE season, the data will be different.  They still have to play @Cuse, Pitt, UL, etc.  After all, we're only five games in.)

[NersEllenson]

DJO has scored points in a few games this year and looks good.  Dameon Mason had a string of impressive games as a freshman too where he looked like a pretty good scorer.  Let's not put the third leading scorer on a bottom half Big East team ahead of two top ten all time scorers just yet.  

DJO has hit some threes and has made some nice moves to the hoop.  He is a finesse player and is highly-skilled.  McNeal and Matthews also had a lot of skill, but also had pretty big shoulders and could finish inside when they got into the lane.  DJO penetrates and kind of floats it up there.  DJO skilled shooter and finesse penetrator like McGrady and Matthews and McNeal were skilled-power guards like Jordan.  (And yes, McGrady and Jordan are a universe better than these guys, but just trying to comment on style.)  Both are obviously very effective, but skilled power guards are tougher to stop in my opinion.  

I don't know what your basis is for thinking that DJO has the footspeed defensively to keep players like Matthews and McNeal out of the lane.  And then even if he could keep up with them, he does not have the athleticism to jump as high as they could in the lane or the strength to make their shots tougher.  Marquette's defense at the guard has not been all that strong this year at all.  The three amigos would have had a field day against this year's team.  

I agree with some of your points, but I stand by my statement that DJO is or will be the best player at MU since DWade.  In that regard, I guess I am crowning him or putting him ahead of two all-time Top 10 scorers in McNeal/Matthews.  If you were to just make an apples to apples comparison and compare where DJO is as a sophomore to where McNeal and Matthews were as sophomores - I think it is quite evident DJO is far more advanced.  DJO is a better passer and playmaker already, than were McNeal and Matthews at any point in their MU career.  Wes and Rel were good at creating their own, but not very great at creating for others.  This is why I see DJO as being the best player at MU since Wade - both have great court awareness/feel/playmaking ability.

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

DJO has scored points in a few games this year and looks good.  Dameon Mason had a string of impressive games as a freshman too where he looked like a pretty good scorer.  Let's not put the third leading scorer on a bottom half Big East team ahead of two top ten all time scorers just yet.  
 

Anybody could tell Mason was not a big time talent after watching him play a few times. The fact that nobody laments his transfer, as many do Blankson, Mbakwe, Maymon, et. al, speaks volumes. I know you're not comparing the two, but DJO is one of the most talented offensive players Marquette has had in many years. What's even more impressive to me, is that it's clear to me that he's not a "me first" player. He's playing within the system. Look at yesterday. 20 points at half and barely shot the ball in the send half. He's a team player and I believe, were he a more focal point of the offense, he's capable of a string of 20 points games and consistent shooting.

I'm not much for hyperbole, but I agree with whoever said they could see him playing in the NBA. I think he's that good. I never thought that about James or McNeal. If memory serves, I was on record early as thinking Matthews had the most NBA ready physique, but I never imagined he'd have the success he's having.

[HoopsMalone]

I agree with some of your points, but I stand by my statement that DJO is or will be the best player at MU since DWade.  In that regard, I guess I am crowning him or putting him ahead of two all-time Top 10 scorers in McNeal/Matthews.  If you were to just make an apples to apples comparison and compare where DJO is as a sophomore to where McNeal and Matthews were as sophomores - I think it is quite evident DJO is far more advanced.  DJO is a better passer and playmaker already, than were McNeal and Matthews at any point in their MU career.  Wes and Rel were good at creating their own, but not very great at creating for others.  This is why I see DJO as being the best player at MU since Wade - both have great court awareness/feel/playmaking ability.

I hope you are right and it is pretty reasonable that DJO could be the best scoring guard since Wade, which means he is better than Matthews, McNeal, James, Diener, Mason, etc.  He does have the tools to make a big impact and hopefully he will.  

If he turns out to be just below the amigos in output, I will not be mad at all because that is a very high standard.  He has a ton of upside and there is no real skill he is lacking.  Could be scary for other teams when he really figures out how good he is and if he can put a little more muscle on his shoulders and chest to finish at the rim and defend scoring guards.

I think DJO's abilities (and to be honest we are not giving Buycks fair credit with his ability to create his own mid-range jump shot with the shotclock winding down.  Not everyone can do that either) will help with next year's recruits.  Blue looks like he can play and Smith sounds like he was another relatively underrated guard (like DJO and Buycks), so having DJO and Buycks who can play will take a lot of pressure off of the freshman next year.  If Blue has a game with 5 turnovers, that may not be the headline because the game will not be all on him if DJO keeps blossoming into this kind of scorer.  

[ChicosBailBonds]

I've provided all manners of comparison between last year's team and this year's team.  It can be done.  Points per possession and points allowed per possession are objective.  Reducing the data pool to Top 100 opponents helps normalize the data.  Expanding the data set to include more than just conference opponents provides additional information.

I started with a preconceived notion regarding both the quality of last year's team and the quality of the BE.  I thought that hands-down the team last year was better and that the BE was a stronger conference.  But then I looked at the data, and it told a different story.  And the different story has two parts:

• Last year's team was better, but not significantly better against Top 100 opponents.  Not just conference opponents.
• The top teams in the BE were better last year, but the overall strength of the BE is better this year

What you are doing is saying, "the data does not meet my preconceived notion of the truth, so I am attacking the data".

(Maybe at the end of the BE season, the data will be different.  They still have to play @Cuse, Pitt, UL, etc.  After all, we're only five games in.)

I just don't seem how they can be compared when the teams are different.  It would be like saying the Vikings last year are the Vikings this year.  They aren't, teams change, players leave, etc.  Don't get me wrong, I absolutely love your data but I don't think anyone can account for one year to the next to compare teams when the personnel changes so much.  The data doesn't factor that in. 

[Lennys Tap]

Yes, but the population pool is comparing this year's Big East to this year's Big East.  In other words, Pomeroy or any other rating can't compare one year to the next year because they are different.  They can claim to, but not in reality.  This year's MU UCONN is different than last year's UCONN....different players, etc.

I agree that you have to play each team and that is all rolled up in an evaluation, but there is no way to accurately portray last year vs this year in a true fashion. 


On the question where we would be this year....last year's MU team would be 4-1 or 5-0 right now this year and likely 1 overall loss (probably at Wisconsin).  IMO

Last year we won 12 games against the greatest Big East ever.  This year we might win 9, 10 or 11 in a much different Big East.  No way in hell last year's team loses to NC State at home or loses an 18 point lead on a neutral court to Florida State. 

DJO is a wonderful talent....really impressed with him.  But if put him on last year's team, he doesn't get nearly as many touches and is not the focal point of the offense like he is this year.  There's a reason why Hayward was the 4th option last year and Butler the 6th....too many talented guys in front of them.  DJO would have the same problem, not enough balls to go around, not enough minutes.  As a result, he would not be the most talented offensive player because his role would be limited.

I agree that last years team was better. Also agree with Rocky that 4 or 5 points on a neutral court sound about right. Question: Do you think Hayward or James was really our 3rd offensive option last year and if Butler was #6 who was #5?

[rocky_warrior]

I don't really see him as a defensive stopper against someone like a McNeal or Matthews though.  

I'm not really disagreeing with your assessment that at this point, DJO is not playing good enough defense.  However, I do disagree that he's not athletic enough to match up with those guys.  I think the athleticism is on par (if not better) than those guys, but he would get burnt by them because he doesn't play fundamentally good defense....yet.

Of course, you could also argue that both of those guys might get burnt by DJO when he's on the offensive end.  Good offensive players are hard to stop...period.

[ErickJD08]

These are all really good points.  At the end of the day, the team shows Buzz's coaching abilities.  The two teams are play completely different styles.  Buzz was given players last year that can pretty much win every one on one match up so he executed a scheme to help that team succeed.  Now, he has a team that with players like DJO, Acker, and Buycks and he has set something up to allow those players to flourish in less than a year.  That gives me more confidence in Buzz and this program.  I agree with (what seems to be) the consensus.  We were better last year but we are not that much worse and that's pretty damn amazing considering we lost three of MU's top ten all-time players in one season.  

[ChicosBailBonds]

I agree that last years team was better. Also agree with Rocky that 4 or 5 points on a neutral court sound about right. Question: Do you think Hayward or James was really our 3rd offensive option last year and if Butler was #6 who was #5?

Yes, I really do think Hayward was behind James last year.  When the game was on the line, we weren't going to Hayward to make something happen, we were going to one of the big 3 every time.

Butler....yeah, move him up to 5th if you wish...let's just say at that point we aren't drawing up any plays.  Our 5th player between Acker, Butler, Burke, Cube, et al were significantly down the list in minutes played, points, etc.

[Lennys Tap]

Yes, I really do think Hayward was behind James last year.  When the game was on the line, we weren't going to Hayward to make something happen, we were going to one of the big 3 every time.

Butler....yeah, move him up to 5th if you wish...let's just say at that point we aren't drawing up any plays.  Our 5th player between Acker, Butler, Burke, Cube, et al were significantly down the list in minutes played, points, etc.

We'll "agree to disagree" on James vs Hayward. But no way Acker, Burke or Cooby was anywhere close to Butler as an option last year.

[MUrugger]

I'll take this Sophomore season from DJO over the 2nd years of any of the three Amigos.  McNeal was a bricklayer who forced shots, DJ was a me-first point guard who also couldn't shoot and Wes was injured and trying to find his place.

I think the "more fun to watch" comment I will stick to is based on a couple of things.  (And I'll cop to saying the same thing last year.)  The team shows more of their coach's coaching and philosophy. You can almost see plays being run and executed according to plan.  I think that Buzz' coaching imprint is obvious and that he has the team buying in more so than The Three Amigos who were far more schooled in TC's multiple sets. Often though, as the shot clock was winding down the Amigos reverted to their own talents and abilities to make a play, which forced a lot more shots than I see from this team.  That's why our shooting % is higher.  Obviously,  RJax or somebody like him in the middle would have helped both teams.

Another reason behind my own viewing enjoyment is that I just like Buzz' Xs & Os better than the other guy.  The promise of better times ahead for this team, that I am not afraid to say has exceeded my own expectations, makes them that much more fun to watch for me.

[Lennys Tap]

I remember dozens of "thank god for buzz, this is the most fun MU team to watch in decades." posts last year.  Further more there were a ton of who was better, 09 or 03 discussions.  I suppose that will be the next thread, is this year as good as 03?

People have no memory what so ever.  I feel like I'm talking to a bunch of stoners.

I was among those who thought last year's team was the most fun MU team to watch in decades. Still do. Love watching this year's warriors but they've got a ways to go to reach last year's group.

[IAmMarquette]

I just don't seem how they can be compared when the teams are different.  It would be like saying the Vikings last year are the Vikings this year.  They aren't, teams change, players leave, etc.  Don't get me wrong, I absolutely love your data but I don't think anyone can account for one year to the next to compare teams when the personnel changes so much.  The data doesn't factor that in. 

Does this mean you're unwilling to state that this year's Vikings are better than last year's Vikings?

[RawdogDX]

I've provided all manners of comparison between last year's team and this year's team.  It can be done.  Points per possession and points allowed per possession are objective.  Reducing the data pool to Top 100 opponents helps normalize the data.  Expanding the data set to include more than just conference opponents provides additional information.

I started with a preconceived notion regarding both the quality of last year's team and the quality of the BE.  I thought that hands-down the team last year was better and that the BE was a stronger conference.  But then I looked at the data, and it told a different story.  And the different story has two parts:

• Last year's team was better, but not significantly better against Top 100 opponents.  Not just conference opponents.
• The top teams in the BE were better last year, but the overall strength of the BE is better this year

What you are doing is saying, "the data does not meet my preconceived notion of the truth, so I am attacking the data".

(Maybe at the end of the BE season, the data will be different.  They still have to play @Cuse, Pitt, UL, etc.  After all, we're only five games in.)

Sugar, are these numbers for last year in it's entirity?  Were we significantly better pre 2/25?

[rocky_warrior]

Sugar, are these numbers for last year in it's entirity?  Were we significantly better pre 2/25?

Not Sugar, but from his earlier post...

More comparing last year's team (with DJ) and this year's team so far.  Again, both sets of data are only against Top 100 opponents.

[Henry Sugar]

What rocky said

The comparison gets even tighter if you toss in those final eight games where there was no James, mostly on the defensive end.  Remember that I started out trying to prove that the team with DJ was a lot better.

Honestly, I expect this year's team to have the numbers adjust once we add more top 100 opponents.  But still... the comparison right now is a lot closer than I originally thought it would be.

[ChicosBailBonds]

We'll "agree to disagree" on James vs Hayward. But no way Acker, Burke or Cooby was anywhere close to Butler as an option last year.

My point being that neither was Butler....it's all a wash.  You're not going to go to your 5th option when you have 3 Seniors and a Junior ahead of them.  It's a moot point.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Does this mean you're unwilling to state that this year's Vikings are better than last year's Vikings?

I'm more than willing to say this year's Vikings team is better than last year's Vikings team.  A few key personnel changes at key positions, more wins against playoff teams, etc. 


My biggest gripe is that last year's Big East was not your normal Big East and comparing any Big East team (us, Syracuse, etc) to what any Big East team had to go through last year, is going to be very difficult to do.  The conference is that different from last year to this year.  In most years, I'd be wiling to say the conference is in the ballpark of being relatively equal, but last year was a very special year for the conference.