Hmmm... Are we better than last year?

[ChicosBailBonds]

Agree that last year's team was better...but this year's team is more fun to watch.  I also think that (not just today) this is one of the better shooting teams in MU memory.

Marquette always seems to get it share of bricklayers, but there are some smooth strokes with this bunch.  I think the career upside for DJO is off the charts. 

I think we all have short memories.  Last year's team was pretty darn fun to watch when we were beating Wisconsin, beating NC State with a last second shot, starting out 9-0 in the Big East, etc, etc

[JakeBarnes]

I think we all have short memories.  Last year's team was pretty darn fun to watch when we were beating Wisconsin, beating NC State with a last second shot, starting out 9-0 in the Big East, etc, etc

I agree that some of it may be short memories.  THe 9-0 start was fantastic, but in most people's minds tend to remember the post-DJ injury games. 

That being said, my enjoyment of watching this team stems partly from the fact that I had fairly low expectations for the team overall.  Cheering for the unexpected seems to have a bit more excitement to it in terms of perspective. 

[downtown85]

Up to this point in the season, last year's team is better, particularly on the defensive end of the floor.  Dominic James had a lot to do with it.

I remember at the start of this season being worried that we didn't have any proven outside shooters.  I was thinking that Zar and Cubie (if he reverts to his freshman form) could help but didn't have much optimism regarding our perimiter shooting.  Well I think it is obvious that this year's team shoots better from outside than last year's team.  This allows them to spread the floor more and this helps in so many areas. 

The relevant question is, will this team be better at the end of the season than last year's team?  I think it could be. Partially because DJ was injured at the end of last season and partially because this team is still maturing and could get even better by the end of conference play.  The key will be to get the tourney invite then all bets are off.

[mug644]

Also, the toughest stretch of the season--schedule-wise--were the last few games of the season, so, combining that with the experience of the team last year, it wasn't really that much of a shock to have such a strong first part of the BEast season.

This year, the toughest stretch was at the outset of the conference schedule, and we made it through that fairly well.

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

I agree with Rugger. We may not be better than last year, but we're a helluva lot more fun to watch. There aren't any players on this team who make me wince when they shoot.

[willie warrior]

We were better with last year's team, simply because we had three very good seniors. Also the BEast was really loaded last year. It is still very good this year, but not as loaded with great teams as last year.

That being said, the team is playing tough against the stud teams, just not quite good enough to win. The real test will be how we do against the lower echelon BEast teams.

If we get 19 wins and two more quality wins we will make the dance, just not quite as good as last year.

[Henry Sugar]

I think I will wait until Cracked Sidewalks and Co. crunch the numbers to make a determination on that one.  I think this years' team shoots better, but last years' team got a lot of FTs.  And keep in mind, we were on fire when DJ got hurt, so that hurt last years' team a lot.  

you rang?

I estimate that last year's team (with DJ) wins about 65% of the time.  Most likely view is a four point victory (73-69).  However, it's a lot closer than I expected it to be.  I really expected it to be a slam dunk.

Basically, last year's team was better at the turnover differential.  They protected the ball a little bit better and forced a few more turnovers.  They were also better at free throw rate differential, but that really doesn't matter much.  This year's team is slightly better at offensive rebounding but that's about it.

The shooting percentages are very, very similar.  Offense was 52.7% vs 52.4% and defense was 51.6% vs 51%.  The reason the teams are so close is that shooting percentages are a massive chunk of offensive efficiency.

Assumptions
Games against Top 100 (or BE opponents) only
I only included games with DJ in the lineup

[MHMUFAN]

Last seasons team started off better but then kinda leveled off due to a tougher schedule near the end and Jame's injury. They also lost to a bad UCF team when everyone was healthy.

I see this years team getting better as the season goes on due to young players getting more experience and an easier end of year schedule. This years team can shoot the 3 better and may be a more balanced team...if McNeil struggled so did Marquette, but if Hayward this year, DJO, Butler can carry the team for a while, plus this team is much more dangerous with the threes. IF this team stays healthy, they may be a better tournament team than last years without James.

[HoopsMalone]

McNeal could cover and at least slow down DJO.  There is no way DJO could cover McNeal.

D James can cover Acker, Cooby, or Buycks.  There is no way any of those guys keep James in front of them.

Wes was unbelviable.  Last year's team had a post man who could at least box out.  

I love both teams, but last year's team was so much better.  Last year's team also played pretty well as a team and blew out good teams like Cincy and WVU.  MU also beat Final Four team Villanova to start the Big East season.  

In the past two weeks, MU has shot the lights out from three.  Hopefully it continues, but MU is going to have an off night and this thread would look a lot different. 

Last year's team wins by 10+.  Last year's MU team is also better than this year's Nova, WVU, and Wisco team hands down.

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

McNeal could cover and at least slow down DJO.  There is no way DJO could cover McNeal.

D James can cover Acker, Cooby, or Buycks.  There is no way any of those guys keep James in front of them.

Wes was unbelviable.  Last year's team had a post man who could at least box out.  

I love both teams, but last year's team was so much better.  Last year's team also played pretty well as a team and blew out good teams like Cincy and WVU.  MU also beat Final Four team Villanova to start the Big East season.  

In the past two weeks, MU has shot the lights out from three.  Hopefully it continues, but MU is going to have an off night and this thread would look a lot different. 

Last year's team wins by 10+.  Last year's MU team is also better than this year's Nova, WVU, and Wisco team hands down.

Calling Wes "unbelievable" is revisionist history. He was a solid, above average college player who's found a great spot in the NBA. He was not an "unbelievable" college player. Also, McNeal was a borderline poor defender at the end of last year. One only need to watch the Big East Tournament loss to Villanova for proof. I'm not saying this year's team is better,  but I will say DJO is a better offensive player than any of the three seniors who left and pretty much every player on this year's team is a better shooter than James and/or McNeal. I don't care how many points they both scored, neither one of them were efficient offensive players and McNeal was one of the worst decision makers on the offensive end that Marquette has had in years. Honestly, I can't remember a player in a prominent role being worse in that regard.

[Henry Sugar]

More comparing last year's team (with DJ) and this year's team so far.  Again, both sets of data are only against Top 100 opponents.

It's a lot closer than I thought it would be.  Last year's team is better, but it's not a clear case.



On the offensive numbers, higher is better except for TO%, where a lower % is better.



Just to clarify on the defensive numbers, lower is better except for TO%, because you are allowing less offensive rebounds/free throws/etc.  For TO%, higher is better, because you are forcing more turnovers.

[HoopsMalone]

Calling Wes "unbelievable" is revisionist history. He was a solid, above average college player who's found a great spot in the NBA. He was not an "unbelievable" college player. Also, McNeal was a borderline poor defender at the end of last year. One only need to watch the Big East Tournament loss to Villanova for proof. I'm not saying this year's team is better,  but I will say DJO is a better offensive player than any of the three seniors who left and pretty much every player on this year's team is a better shooter than James and/or McNeal. I don't care how many points they both scored, neither one of them were efficient offensive players and McNeal was one of the worst decision makers on the offensive end that Marquette has had in years. Honestly, I can't remember a player in a prominent role being worse in that regard.

Wes averaged 18 pts/game as a second option and while at times being asked to play the four spot.  "Unbelievable" is admittedly an ambiguous word and depends largely on point of view I guess, but he was a great player who was hard to stop.  Wes would easily be this year's best player.

I agree with you on McNeal and decision making.  However, when DJO has the ball I feel the same sense of unease at times.  DJO takes some bad shots, and so does Buycks for that matter.  DJO is a great shooter and scorer, but neither he nor Buycks is strong enough to cover McNeal or Matthews.  If Wes or Jerel wanted to get to the rim they could both you use their speed and strength to overpower either one.  


The only advantage that I would give this year's team is at the head coach position.  Buzz is more experienced this year and that has to have an effect on the team.  If Buzz was seasoned, maybe the team is better prepared to beat Dayton or Tennesse at the beginning of last year. 

In the past few weeks, Coobie and Acker have been on fire from three and Fulce even hit one.  I hope MU can keep it up, but saying this team is better than last year is a bit premature.  I would love to turn out to be wrong, but I just don't think it is the case.  We beat PROVIDENCE.   

[ErickJD08]

I think we all have short memories.  Last year's team was pretty darn fun to watch when we were beating Wisconsin, beating NC State with a last second shot, starting out 9-0 in the Big East, etc, etc

I think we have short memories in many respects.  Last year's team had four NBA caliber players which in it of itself makes our team pretty damn good.  BUT, it was exciting and tough to watch at times.  Last year, our strategy seemed to be to create as many one on one possibilities as possible.  Whether it was to pointlessly pass the ball around the perimeter or to have McNeal dribble around and throw up a difficult shot (and make it) or try and make every possession a fast break to not allow a team to play team defense.  

Without a doubt, last year's defense was better.  James and McNeal manufactured steals.

[Henry Sugar]

Without a doubt, last year's defense was better.  James and McNeal manufactured steals.

2009 Steal % - 11.3%
2010 Steal % - 12.8%

Granted, we still need to run through the rest of the BE season, but if it's steals you are looking at...

[ChicosBailBonds]

2009 Steal % - 11.3%
2010 Steal % - 12.8%

Granted, we still need to run through the rest of the BE season, but if it's steals you are looking at...

But the problem of comparing stats from one year to the next is the assumption that the competition is the same.  Even when this season is over, this year's Big East is not close to last year's Big East.  It's a good tool and barometer, but the quality of the teams is much different.  We're talking about 8 NCAA teams (7 seeded in the upper half), 2 Final Four teams, a bunch of Elite 8 teams.   I don't think this year's Big East is close, and as a result the stats are going to be different because of the quality of competition.

[mviale]

2009 Steal % - 11.3%
2010 Steal % - 12.8%

Granted, we still need to run through the rest of the BE season, but if it's steals you are looking at...

4 of our 5 BE games - WV, GT, VU, VU - not bad

[RawdogDX]

PRN, saying DJO would be the best offensive player on last years team is recockulous.

Are you people serious?  Is this thread about last year after DJ went down?

Let me make this easy for you all.  Last year the Big east was better.  With DJ we went 12 and 2.  Right now we are 2 and 3.  How many people today think we will finish with more than 12 conference wins?

No broken foot and we win 2 out of our last 4, finish with 14 wins, win a few games in march and this moronic conversation never happens.

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

PRN, saying DJO would be the best offensive player on last years team is recockulous.

He has more offensive ability than all three of the last year's seniors. He is a better shooter (by a lot) than all three and is a better ball handler than both McNeal and Matthews and their equal as a passer. And he's only played 5 Big East games. He's only getting better.

It's just my opinion, but our just graduated class, while hard working and upstanding citizens, is the most overrated group we've ever had at MU. Johnson-Odom is more talented than any of them. Again...just my opinion.

[Hards Alumni]

Let me put it this way.

Do you think last year's team would be undefeated at this point?

I do.

Conversation over.

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

Let me put it this way.

Do you think last year's team would be undefeated at this point?

I do.

Conversation over.

What you're saying is that we'd be the #1 or #2 team in the country. That's just a joke. We were not that good.

I don't even thing this year's team is better. But it's not that far off.

[Henry Sugar]

But the problem of comparing stats from one year to the next is the assumption that the competition is the same.  Even when this season is over, this year's Big East is not close to last year's Big East.  It's a good tool and barometer, but the quality of the teams is much different.  We're talking about 8 NCAA teams (7 seeded in the upper half), 2 Final Four teams, a bunch of Elite 8 teams.   I don't think this year's Big East is close, and as a result the stats are going to be different because of the quality of competition.

Just to address the BE for last year vs this year.

So far, the average pomeroy strength of the BE is better this year (0.827) than last year (0.809).  The difference is that the playing field is more level.  The top teams this year (0.934) are not as strong as last year (0.948), but the bottom teams this year (0.719) are better than last year (0.669).

You have to play every team in the BE.  Not just the best teams.

[Henry Sugar]

What you're saying is that we'd be the #1 or #2 team in the country. That's just a joke. We were not that good.

I don't even thing this year's team is better. But it's not that far off.

Agreed.  Don't forget that last year's team got spanked by Dayton and Tennessee, and got the doors blown off at Villanova.

Last year's team was better.  But so far, they weren't a slam dunk better team than this year.  That should be a good thing, right?

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

That should be a good thing, right?

Thank you! Why are people so defensive about last year? We didn't do much and were not nearly as fun to watch as this year's team. I damn well think it's a good thing!

[NersEllenson]

PRN, saying DJO would be the best offensive player on last years team is recockulous.

Not sure as a freshman DJO would have been the best offensive player on last year's team.  As for who DJO is this year, I agree with PRN, that DJO is as good offensively as Matthews or McNeal was last year.  DJO in my opinion is/will be the best player at MU since D-Wade.  I could see him potentially being a candidate for going to the NBA draft early...after his junior season.  Also, DJO right now is absolutely strong enough to have been able to stop McNeal, maybe Matthews from going to the rack.

[MUfan12]

Thank you! Why are people so defensive about last year? We didn't do much and were not nearly as fun to watch as this year's team. I damn well think it's a good thing!

I don't know about that. During the first half of conference play last year MU was a helluva lot of fun to watch. They had an extra gear they'd find and just pull away.