Comments from G'Town fans

[Hards Alumni]

I think what he is getting at is that the goal of bookies is to get people to bet 50/50, not to get it right.  As long as the public sides 50/50 vegas can't lose.  I may be butchering his point but...
Two big factors that comes into play when you have a team that either:
A: is a team that has a ton of fans who will bet it even if they set the spread a few points to high.
This is often happens with all new york teams, the cowboys, cubs, lakers and ND football.  (don't think this would be involved but if it would was GT has better name recognition and is ranked.)
B: a team that is vastly overrated by the public due to recent success.
This is often a result of a recent big win by a team who had a good week after previous mediocre ones, this team may have the spread start out a few points higher than what Vegas actually thinks will happen.

Now MU's recent 2 losses got a lot of play time on sports center the last week and a half. That very well could have had Vegas bookies suspecting that before this game people would be walking around talking about how MU was a better team than anyone realized and caused them to add another point or two on to the spread.
We also haven't mentioned taking homecourt advantage into account.  A 2 point advantage at home means we'd be a dog on a neutral court.  I think there national TV announcers gushing about how tough it is to play may finally be having an effect.
 

exactly.

[Lennys Tap]

no, you're wrong.  Supply and Demand is not the only thing that comes into play here. 

Why do you think big city teams in NYC, Chicago and LA have stranger lines?  More people from those cities, and they are more likely to bet on the home team rather than with their head.  This is offset in the lines as well.

As I said, much more goes into setting Vegas lines other than who is better.

Your explanation of what offsets the line IS a component of "supply and demand" and contradicts your first two sentences. You're right, though, that predicting supply and demand is different than saying who is better.

[TallTitan34]

I find Georgetown fans to be one of the better fan bases.

On their board, however, by saying it wasn't an upset they are essentially saying they are over-rated.

[jaygall31]

W

[MUfan12]

It was great last year...if you were an MU fan

Haha, definitely. 4,000 MU fans in the upper deck made more noise than 12,000 of them. And then drank the bar out of Miller Lite. That was a lot of fun.

[reinko]

no, you're wrong.  Supply and Demand is not the only thing that comes into play here. 

Why do you think big city teams in NYC, Chicago and LA have stranger lines?  More people from those cities, and they are more likely to bet on the home team rather than with their head.  This is offset in the lines as well.

As I said, much more goes into setting Vegas lines other than who is better.

+1 

The line is set to try to maximize the greatest amount of action.

[jficke13]

There is a great MU base in DC. We made the drive out last year and it's a great alumni scene. Check out the Penn Quarter for a game if you're DC during a game, it's a great MU bar out there.

[avid1010]

I think what he is getting at is that the goal of bookies is to get people to bet 50/50, not to get it right.  As long as the public sides 50/50 vegas can't lose. 

I briefly talked with a sports book manager in Vegas, and was amazed at how he answered my questions.  Georgetown has a much bigger fan base than MU, yet MU was favored to beat them by 2.  It's not like you can bet against big market teams consistently and retire with your riches.  Which you can count on is Vegas taking full advantage of the discrepancy that occurs because of public perception.  Like all gambling...it's best to be the house.