[Cracked Sidewalks] Could Lazar Have a Better Senior Season than Novak?

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Could Lazar Have a Better Senior Season than Novak?

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (Rob Lowe)

Fresh off of yesterday's Open Gym Report from Rosiak, he has an interview with Lazar.  In the interview, they touch on a number of different topics, including a lot of discussion about the World University Games.

The (few) highlights from this offseason have mostly involved Lazar, and with good reason.  After all, despite the standard coaching comments about everyone having to earn a spot, Hayward is probably the only player that is guaranteed a starting spot.  Given his relatively good performance in the WUG, and some minor consideration for the NBA draft, much is expected of the team leader.

There are some obvious parallels to the 2006 season, as Tim highlighted by looking at the Wayback Machine.  After all, both seasons involve a senior leader and then a talented set of incoming players.   However, it wasn't until the following thread on MUScoop that really got me thinking.  Is it just a crazy notion to think that Lazar could have a similar impact that Novak did?

There's no disputing that Novak is one of the all-time great shooters at Marquette (and maybe ever).  After all, he was the #3 most efficient offensive player in 2005 and the #1 most efficient offensive player in 2006.  In the country.  Plus, Novak was already good enough to be drafted and play in the NBA.  Furthermore, Steve had numerous games where he delivered amazing performances, like dropping eight three pointers at #4 Louisville in 2004, going perfect in OT against Missouri in 2003, or even being otherworldly against UConn with 41 points and 16 rebounds.  Holy crap... I almost forgot the ND game winning shot!  (btw - a bunch of those game links have video recaps if you want to relive the fun).  Finally, one can make the argument that because of his singular skill, Steve Novak made everyone else's position on the team easier.

Novak's exploits are legendary, so case closed, right?  There is no way that Lazar even measures up.  (This is the part where I say not so fast).

First, although he was often overlooked by the Three Amigos last year, Lazar was a pretty good player in his own right.  For example, did you know that he finished ranked among the BIG EAST leaders in scoring (10th, 16.3 ppg), rebounding (7th, 8.6 rpg) and free throw percentage (4th, 82.0%)?  Or that he had ten double-doubles (TEN!) last year?  How about that in one game he had eighteen rebounds?  Finally, lost in the disappointment of the NCAA tournament was that Lazar had a game-high 26 points and 8 rebounds vs USU and 13 points and a game-high 11 rebounds against Missouri.  Too bad the Missouri performance was overshadowed by one step on the line...

Second, I've become convinced that there's a problem with basketball.  The game overvalues scorers... but there is a LOT more involved to winning a basketball game than just scoring.  A player that is a great shooter (like say Novak) may not be as valuable as conventional wisdom suggests.  I've largely been convinced of this logic based on the writings in "The Wages of Wins", and from The Wages of Wins Blog.

 (skip if you have no interest in wonkish stuff)

Because I largely started off working with basketball stats based off Pomeroy's website, which itself was largely based on the work of Dean Oliver's "Basketball on Paper", I'd largely shunned the idea of a rating that could effectively handle the value of a single player.  Oliver, in particular, was effective in arguing against the notion.  However, after having read The Wages of Wins on my own, I feel better with the concept, mostly because I understand how Wins Produced is derived.  The basic notion is that one can use regression analysis to figure out what actions on the basketball court lead to wins.  Adjust for position, and those are wins produced.  

Now, if one doesn't feel like going through the effort in figuring out Wins Produced vs Win Score, there is a simpler value that can be used to assess a player's productivity or value on the court.  It's also based on regression analysis, but it's been simplified because there's not a huge difference between a coefficient of 0.497 and 0.5.  That is Berri's Win Score.

Points + Rebounds + Steals + ½Assists + ½Blocked Shots – Field Goal Attempts – Turnovers – ½Free Throw Attempts – ½Personal Fouls

So how do things look when we compare Lazar and Novak using this formula?



What this comparison tells us is that for productivity, Novak was a more productive player than Lazar for Freshman year.  However, in Lazar's sophomore and junior years, he was actually a more productive overall player than Novak (despite Novak's scoring ability).  In fact, on a per-game basis, Lazar was almost as productive last year as Novak's senior year, and Lazar was just slightly more productive on a per-minute basis than Steve.

Why is this the case?  Because Hayward is more than just a scorer.  He gets double-doubles, blocks, and steals.

Of course, this does not mean that next year's team will have similar results as the 2005-2006 team that finished 4th in conference with a 10-6 record.  It also doesn't mean that Lazar will make the NBA because his overall game is better than Novak's special skill.  In conclusion, if we use our crystal ball, it means that it's reasonable to believe that Lazar will have a better senior season than Novak if we look at more than just scoring. If nothing else, that's not a bad place to look for some optimism for 2009-2010.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2009/07/could-lazar-have-better-senior-season.html

[NotAnAlum]

Lazar would also have an outside shot at breaking Jerel's all time scoring record.  He is only 50 points behind where Jerel started as a senior.  He will be far and away the number one option and might end up having to score a ton of points to keep MU competitive in some games.  That would be wild to have a record that stood as long as George's broken in back to back years by guys that played together for most of their careers. 

[dsfire]

That doesn't even consider defense, one of Novak's biggest deficiencies (though he had improved significantly by senior year).  Whereas Hayward may end up being our best option to defend the 5 (oof).

That said, I'd expect Hayward's impact on next year's team to be very similar to Novak's during his senior season, if in different areas and amounts.  The rest of the team?  Could go either way.

[Ready2Fly]

This is the best post I've read in a while.  Lazar is a double-double machine, a threat to score from anywhere on the court (putbacks, post moves, ft line extended jumpers, threes), and he's hands down a better defender.  Novak's shooting ability was SO good that it makes for a very interesting comparison.  I think Lazar's improved ball-handling (noted by many accounts) will take his game to the next level this year and his win score/game will be better than Steve's outstanding senior campaign.  The key will be whether or not the newcomers can make the immediate impact that James, McNeal & Matthews did, and Butler can play greater than or equal to Chapman's senior season.  Mbao passing through the clearinghouse and providing 4 & 4 from the C spot would be nice too, but I'm not counting on it.  Whatever happens, I'm excited to see this team play.

[tower912]

He'd better......   Novak was a freak, a match-up nightmare.   One of the best shooters on the planet and he is 6'10".    Lazar is an extremely talented tweener.   It is easier to guard Lazar than it was to guard Novak.      I hope with all my heart that Lazar surpasses Steve.   I am not optimistic.

[Lennys Tap]

Lazar is a terrific player but to compare him to Novak based on similar "numbers" is myopic. Opponents put a guy in Steve's face when he passed half court and kept him there. This opened up the court for the rest of the team. One consequence was DJ having his best offensive year as a freshman.

[Brewtown Andy]

Lazar would also have an outside shot at breaking Jerel's all time scoring record.  He is only 50 points behind where Jerel started as a senior.  He will be far and away the number one option and might end up having to score a ton of points to keep MU competitive in some games.  That would be wild to have a record that stood as long as George's broken in back to back years by guys that played together for most of their careers. 

If he averages 20 points a game & just repeats last year's rebounding numbers, he'll finish top 5 all time in both categories, and be the only guy in both top 5s, IIRC.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Lazar would also have an outside shot at breaking Jerel's all time scoring record.  He is only 50 points behind where Jerel started as a senior.  He will be far and away the number one option and might end up having to score a ton of points to keep MU competitive in some games.  That would be wild to have a record that stood as long as George's broken in back to back years by guys that played together for most of their careers. 

Keep in mind that Travis would have broken it also if he didn't get hurt.

[MarquetteDano]

Keep in mind that Travis would have broken it also if he didn't get hurt.

I had great seats at DePaul for Travis' senior year and remember asking GT whether Diener would break his record.  He stated emphatically "Yes."  I believe he got injured the game after.

[77ncaachamps]

The only thing that keeps Lazar from that nightly double-double is the defense's main focus on him. They're sure to double so those younguns better step up big and EARLY!

[Dienerfor3]

Steve Novak also had the BigEast rookie of the year in D James and two other stud freshmen.  We don't know what the freshman/newcomers are going to be like, but expecting freshman years as good as the Three Amigos? That seems far-fetched.

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

I had great seats at DePaul for Travis' senior year and remember asking GT whether Diener would break his record.  He stated emphatically "Yes."  I believe he got injured the game after.

That was one of Diener's worst games of the year and was the game that made clear that MU did not have a very good team. Only those with short memories can generously conclude that we "could have" been on the bubble had Travis remained healthy. That was a bad team.

Also a bad team...and perhaps a better comparison talent-wise to what we have coming in next year...is the team we had coming back the year after New Orleans. I'm not comparing the results of 2009 and 2003 -- clearly there is no comparison -- but we had some talent on that team and couldn't overcome the loss of our superstar. The loss of the 3 guards, collectively, may have a similar effect on our squad.

I don't know...but it should be interesting to watch!

[THEGYMBAR]

It is going to come down to the new guys. Novak had luxury of a lot of transition looks and he drained them. Lazar is going to be facing crazy tough D this season. He is going to need help from the young guns.

By the way, any see the guys play at the Al this summer? I have heard conflicting reports on the fella's.

[RJax55]

It is going to come down to the new guys. Novak had luxury of a lot of transition looks and he drained them. Lazar is going to be facing crazy tough D this season. He is going to need help from the young guns.

By the way, any see the guys play at the Al this summer? I have heard conflicting reports on the fella's.

I agree. Lazar is going to get his... But whether this season is a success or not, will entirely depend on the newcomers. At this stage in the game, what qualifies as a successfully season is certainly up for debate. Personally, I would take 8-10 or 9-9 in the Big East and a NIT appearance.

Gymbar, what have you heard about the new guys???

[Ready2Fly]

Lazar is a terrific player but to compare him to Novak based on similar "numbers" is myopic. Opponents put a guy in Steve's face when he passed half court and kept him there. This opened up the court for the rest of the team. One consequence was DJ having his best offensive year as a freshman.

I think it's an interesting debate: what's more valuable, a singular once-in-a-generation talent (Novak's shooting), or an excellent all-around game like Lazar's?  Both seem to get to the bottom line, wins, in a different way but at the same rate.

[Chili]

Steve Novak also had the BigEast rookie of the year in D James and two other stud freshmen.  We don't know what the freshman/newcomers are going to be like, but expecting freshman years as good as the Three Amigos? That seems far-fetched.

You don't this Steve helped Dom's game more than any other player he had with him in his time at MU? Steve made the defense extend and wouldn't let them clog the middle or zone them.

I think Steve helped the Amigos more than they helped him.

[mu-rara]

You don't this Steve helped Dom's game more than any other player he had with him in his time at MU? Steve made the defense extend and wouldn't let them clog the middle or zone them.

I think Steve helped the Amigos more than they helped him.

I think your right.....could DJs great senior year be attributable to having a reliable shooter (Lazar) on the outside?

[Ready2Fly]

I think your right.....could DJs great senior year be attributable to having a reliable shooter (Lazar) on the outside?

'Zar's 3P% was 45% DJ's Junior year and 36% DJ's senior year.

[Marquette84]

'Zar's 3P% was 45% DJ's Junior year and 36% DJ's senior year.

Do you think he 3P% went down because:

a) He just didn't shoot as well--simply regressed?

b) Opposing coaches looked at his 45% shooting the year before, and made adjustments to their defenses, opening things up for James?

I think the latter is probably more likely.

[Skatastrophy]

Do you think he 3P% went down because:

a) He just didn't shoot as well--simply regressed?

b) Opposing coaches looked at his 45% shooting the year before, and made adjustments to their defenses, opening things up for James?

I think the latter is probably more likely.

Or once Ouse and Fitz graduated Lazar was forced to discontinue concentrating on his shot in order to focus on his down-low game?

[Marquette84]

Or once Ouse and Fitz graduated Lazar was forced to discontinue concentrating on his shot in order to focus on his down-low game?

Doubtful.  Buzz used a motion style offense that didn't rely on a down-low game, much to Murff's consternation.

As such, the percentage of treys Hayward attempted actually increased last year from 10.2% of all shot attempts to 13.4%--a strange result IF someone were attempting to focus on a "down-low" game.

Coaches aren't stupid.  They look at a players' reputation when designing a defense.  His freshman year Hayward only made 10 threes all season, coaches rightly viewed him as not much of an outside threat.  His sophomore year he took nearly 3 treys per game, and made nearly half of them.  Coaches began to realize they have to guard him outside.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Doubtful.  Buzz used a motion style offense that didn't rely on a down-low game, much to Murff's consternation.

As such, the percentage of treys Hayward attempted actually increased last year from 10.2% of all shot attempts to 13.4%--a strange result IF someone were attempting to focus on a "down-low" game.

Coaches aren't stupid.  They look at a players' reputation when designing a defense.  His freshman year Hayward only made 10 threes all season, coaches rightly viewed him as not much of an outside threat.  His sophomore year he took nearly 3 treys per game, and made nearly half of them.  Coaches began to realize they have to guard him outside.

That's a good point, also there is the value of overall usage vs efficiency.

For most players, as they are asked to "do more" they become less efficient. A player might be a 50% 3pt shooter (Novak), but if he shot 25 3pointers a game, he wouldn't make 50%.

Lazar's case isn't this extreme, but usage vs efficiency is certainly a factor as well.

I believe Henry Sugar tracks this stuff throughout the season. 

 

[Ready2Fly]

Do you think he 3P% went down because:

a) He just didn't shoot as well--simply regressed?

b) Opposing coaches looked at his 45% shooting the year before, and made adjustments to their defenses, opening things up for James?

I think the latter is probably more likely.

I think it was the latter, and I wasn't knocking Lazar.  I was simply saying the theory was flawed that because Hayward was all  of a sudden a reliable outside shooter that DJ's senior season was so great.  If anything, McNeal's vastly improved outside shooting played a much more significant role, not to mention DJ's more measured approach to the game and focus on defense.