Can we meet/exceed the 2005-2006 Season performance?

[1990Warrior]

     It seems to me that the board has lower expectations than the one and done NCAA tournament season of 2005-2006.  I am picking that year because of the obvious similarity of having a highly talented incoming freshman class.  Looking back at the roster makeup, I do not see why we can't match or exceed that year's performance.

     Let's start with the seniors: The 05-06 class featured a stud and a role player in Novak/Chapman as well as Grimm (who only averaged 1 point per game).  This year we have a stud and a role player in Lazar/Acker.  We also have Cubillan who is a question mark mostly for medical reasons.  I would say that the 09/10 seniors will give equivalent production.  I think Lazar is more rounded than Novak and will give more rebounds while matching his offensive production.  Overall we will say that there is equivalent production here.
     
     How about the Juniors: The 05-06 Juniors Lott and Kinsella basically provided nothing.  This year we have a proven role player who could legitimately start in Butler.  We also have Fulce, who is a question mark (medical), but if he heals could become a valuable role player.  It is not hard to imagine that he could single handedly provide more than Lott/Kinsella did.  Hazel – who knows??  Nevertheless, there is a clear advantage with next year's junior class being able to provide more minutes and production.

     The sophomores: The 05 class had Ammo, Fitz and Barro.  Ammo was on his way out but still managed to play 15 min and average 5.6 points per game and even had a couple of very good games. Ooze also contributed 13 min and 4.6 point per game but his best two years were definitely in the future. Fitz was a solid role player averaging 20 min and 5.3 points per game.  Next year its Otule and McMorrow will be competing for 40 minutes at center.  You could probably say slight advantage to the 05-06 class.

     Now the freshman (obviously this part should stimulate the most argument):    The most important thing is to remember that I am comparing the 09/10 players to the 05/06 players and not the players that they developed into.  I am putting Buycks here because he is new and an unknown, but his experience is obviously a factor.  I do not think that it is that hard to imagine him matching or exceeding McNeals 11 points per game.  I also do not think that it is hard to imagine Maymon/E williams  matching or exceeding the output of Matthews (9 points per game).  Obviously, it will be hard for Cadougan to have the same performance that DJ had in 05/06. It is worth mentioning Roseboro who could make a contribution at C/PF.   I think that overall, you can argue for equivalent production from next year's class and I do not see why a NCAA tournament appearance is a crazy prediction.

Thoughts?

[Nukem2]

It will be hard to beat the 05-06 performance as that was a guard-oriented team augmented by the best 3 point shooter in the country.  College basketball tends to be more of a guard game (though having inside prescence is quite important as we've seen over the past 4 season of MU not having such a prescence ).  The upcoming 09-10 team will be more forward-oriented team so it may not "gel" as quickly as the 05-05 group.  I think the upcoming group will struggle early.  Playing in the Old Spice Classic may not prove to be the best thing as it could lead to 3 losses in November.  Hopefully I will be proven wrong.

[Buzz4Prez]

I think next year will be very similar to 05-06. The BE will not be as strong as it was in 2005. I think we will take some bumps and bruises in the non-conference, but once the conference season rolls around we will be in good position to be a low seed in the tourny.

[Chicago_inferiority_complexes]

I'm up for beating whichever big east team is inevitably ranked #2 (or #1 ...) on our home court when we inevitably play such a team next year.

[Buzz4Prez]

I think the Old Spice classic will be a good thing, I think these new players will need to get a feel of what playing other elite teams is like in the preseason. I think if they get to play some other good teams they wont be as scared when they play in the BE. Granted I think we will lose a lot of games in the pre-season, however I don't think losing is that bad as long as they learn something from it. I think my most important thing for next year is seeing improvement from the beginning of the season to the end of the season. I don't expect this team to be a legit NCAA contenders, however I do think we can get to .500 in league play.

[Atlanta Warrior]

I think the Old Spice classic will be a good thing, I think these new players will need to get a feel of what playing other elite teams is like in the preseason. I think if they get to play some other good teams they wont be as scared when they play in the BE. Granted I think we will lose a lot of games in the pre-season, however I don't think losing is that bad as long as they learn something from it. I think my most important thing for next year is seeing improvement from the beginning of the season to the end of the season. I don't expect this team to be a legit NCAA contenders, however I do think we can get to .500 in league play.

I have to think if we finish at .500 in league we can make the NCAA.  Obvious there are exceptions (like Providence this year).  The key is to avoid bad losses by winning the games you are supposed to win (which Providence did not do see their loss to Binghamton). 

It is impossible for me to speculate on where we will end up next year as I have no idea how these new players will play.  I will say that we will have far more depth next year and Lazar and JB are two great building blocks.  If Cadougan and Buckys can handle the point and 2 I think we have a shot at an NCAA bid and will definitely make the NIT.

[willie warrior]

the greater point should be that we make the NCAA every year with occasional deep runs.

Now we will have to settle for the "hope" we make the Dance, but more likely will be NIT.

I, for one, would like to be in a position with talent each year that we will make the dance

[Atlanta Warrior]

the greater point should be that we make the NCAA every year with occasional deep runs.

Now we will have to settle for the "hope" we make the Dance, but more likely will be NIT.

I, for one, would like to be in a position with talent each year that we will make the dance

I would think that sentiment is true for all of us. That said we are losing 4 senior starters and not too many teams, outside of North Carolina, would be able to return the following year with a high caliber team. 

In many ways next years team may be more talented than some of our recent editions but you can't buy experience.  That said if the talent on paper turns into performance on the court an NCAA return is a real possibility and would set the table for continuned runs as Buzz continues to build on what he has already accomplished.

[bilsu]

NcNeal all-time leading scorer, James would have passed Thompson, if he had not got hurt. Matthews probalby would have passed Thompson if he did not get hurt as a freshmen and got a couple of extra games in because MU would of went further if McNeal and James had not got hurt. Will Cadougan, Williams, Maymon or Rosborro come close to any of these numbers? They have a chance, because like 05-06 they will have to play right away. I hope I am wrong, but I do not expect much out of next years team. Maybe this will be the year we do not have any key injuries which will help alot.

[NotAnAlum]

I think if next years team is an NCAA bubble team I'd be more than pleased.  Everybody is focused on these guys offensively but I'm afraid that on defense is where they will struggle.  Lazar is not a great defensive player.  It may be tough for Junior to stay with many of the BE point guards.  I'd feel better at center if Liam got the all clear.  Decent defensive rep and it doesn't hurt to be 7 foot.  Otherwise you are looking at a guy who didn't show anything defensively (Otule) or a freshman to man the center.   I can see lots of blown assignments, late help, bad rotations.  Defense is harder to learn as a team than offense.  Also perimeter D (which is all about keeping your man in front of you) was easier to learn when you had 3 very quick guards (the 3 amigos).  We are going to be mixing perimeter and interior defense and everybody learning together which could be really difficult.  Expect to blow some leads down the streach.