Buzz Numbers Article

[downtown85]

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/news?slug=jo-marquette032009&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

BOISE, Idaho – Statistically speaking, the madness begins before March for Marquette coach Buzz Williams. Friday provided more evidence that his peculiar brand of madness is a daily state of mind, kicking in at about sunrise and winding down in the wee hours of the morning, or whenever it is he finally closes his eyes.

If he can.

"I don't sleep," he said, "so I have to think of these things."

He thinks of numbers. Obsessively. Every permutation, integer and algorithm that might assist his team – especially now that its starting point guard is out for the season with a broken foot.

So when someone handed William a box score after sixth-seeded Marquette beat 11th-seeded Utah State 58-57 on Friday 58-57 in a West Region first-round game, he pored over the cluster of numbers. Points, rebounds, assists, turnovers, shooting percentages, on and on. Child's play. The box score serves as no more than a starting point for the more complicated calculations.

"I understand I'm a freak as it relates to numbers," Williams said.

Most college fans probably concluded that Marquette held off Utah State thanks to Lazar Hayward's 26 points on a day the Golden Eagles' two senior guards struggled with their shooting. But Williams saw something entirely different, a game within the game embedded in statistics.

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The first clues came Thursday, when Williams revealed he had closely studied numbers associated with Utah State coach Stew Morrill and noted that the Aggies had shot about 50 percent this season.

"So to an extent, it's a little bit of a math problem," Williams said. "in that the 86 games that Coach Morrill has lost in the last 10 years, 70 of those 86 games [Utah State] hasn't scored 72 points or more. This year, they have won 30 [games]. In the games they haven't scored 72, they have lost four."

Later, someone noted that Marquette would enter the game having made more free throws than its opponents had attempted this season.

"We want to make 23.4 points per game," Williams said. "I'm not trying to be silly with the 0.4. I understand you can't do that per game, but from an average standpoint ... "

He looked around the room, and the quizzical look on the face of reporters.

"I would have been smarter if I just would have said 23," he said.

Too late. Turns out every time Marquette raced up and down the court Friday at Taco Bell Arena – as they jumped to an early lead, fell behind late, then rallied for the win – Williams' mind spun with numbers. After the game, he beamed with pride – not just because of the victory, but because seniors Jerel McNeal and Wesley Matthews arrived at the news conference and recited some statistical information Williams had fed his team before the game.

For the Golden Eagles, it's as customary as pregame layup drills.

"I know the first time he started doing it, we would look at each other and smile like, 'Man, he's making those numbers up,' " Matthews said. "There ain't no way like off the top of his head he's calculating these percentages, but they make a lot of sense."

So pull out your calculator, put on your thinking cap and follow along with Mr. Math.

Gleaning the most important statistics after scouting Utah State, Williams said, he relayed the information during a "seven-minute" lesson. The focus: Entering the game, Utah State was averaging 72 possessions and 72 points per game. A statistical analysis would become paramount, he said, when taking into account that NCAA tournament games include five "media timeouts" each half, which are called every four minutes.

"So at 72 possessions, they're scoring 72 points, so that's 36 possessions a half and they're scoring 18 of those 36," Williams explained after the game. "You with me?"

Nod head.

"So, basically, that's 1.8 possessions on offense per game minute," he continued. "So per game minute, if there's a media timeout every four minutes, we want to get three consecutive stops per media timeout."



Buzz Williams knows the numbers inside and out, and had no doubt Marquette had Utah State beaten.
(US Presswire/Frank Victores)
Hang in there, folks.

"OK, so 20 to 16, 16 to 12, 12 to 8, 8 to 4, 4 to halftime," he said, referring to the minutes between media timeouts. "In those five, get three consecutive stops. That's 15 stops. Do the same thing in the second half.

"And see, where teams get lured into it is you jump on a team like that, and you think, 'Oh, you got it.' No, you don't have it."

No?

"No, because the numbers say they're going to get 72 possessions, they're going to get 72 points," he said. "So that's the way I was able to hold our guys accountable and that's what they were asking us as soon as they came in the huddle. 'Coach, how many we got?' "

They got enough. Enough to hold Utah State 14 points below its season average. Enough to offset Marquette's woeful shooting, 36.2 percent from the field. Enough to reveal the significance of Williams' research into Utah State's losses in the past 10 years.

While Golden Eagles fans may have squirmed while watching Marquette hold off Utah State's second half surge, Williams apparently took confidence as he looked at the scoreboard and noted both teams would finish in the 50s.

"We're going to win the game," he said. "It's just the math."

Williams said his grandfather would be particularly proud.

"My grandfather quit school in the third grade and he taught himself how to count and how to read," Williams said. "I spent a lot of time growing up with my grandfather and I learned how to count and I taught him how to multiply and divide using dollar bills.

"And so that's just kind of how it started, and there's some guys on my [coaching] staff that are more 'Rainman' than I am."

What might be the most mathematically inclined coaching staff in the country has been paying even closer attention to statistics since Feb. 25, when starting point guard Dominic James broke his left foot in the opening minutes of a loss to Connecticut. With the Golden Eagles forced to call on little-used Maurice Acker as a replacement, Marquette had lost five of six before Friday.

No fear. Williams suggested he'd cracked the statistical code, determining Marquette must reduce its possessions to about 60 per game rather than the 90 per game they could hit when James was on the floor.

"We can't give away quick possessions unless they're layups," he said.

That means when the Golden Eagles face third-seeded Missouri on Sunday in the second round, they'll have to find a way to slow the pace against the up-tempo Tigers. Williams figures to be prepared – even though he seemed oddly surprised that about 5,000 Utah State fans had attended the game.

Why would he have been surprised considering Logan, the site of Utah State's campus, is only about 300 miles from Boise?

Almost sheepishly, Williams admitted, "I don't have a very good grasp of geography."

[NavinRJohnson]

With the Golden Eagles forced to call on little-used Maurice Acker as a replacement, Marquette had lost five of six before Friday.

No fear. Williams suggested he'd cracked the statistical code, determining Marquette must reduce its possessions to about 60 per game rather than the 90 per game they could hit when James was on the floor.

Wow! That blows me away. Would also seem to explain some of the struggles and the decrease in production from Jerel in particular.

[Brewtown Andy]

Williams figures to be prepared – even though he seemed oddly surprised that about 5,000 Utah State fans had attended the game.

Why would he have been surprised considering Logan, the site of Utah State's campus, is only about 300 miles from Boise?

Almost sheepishly, Williams admitted, "I don't have a very good grasp of geography."

Buzz is a fantastic human being. 

[NotAnAlum]

If he really thought that during the second half of that game I don't whether to be impressed or scared.

[Shack]

With the Golden Eagles forced to call on little-used Maurice Acker as a replacement, Marquette had lost five of six before Friday.

No fear. Williams suggested he’d cracked the statistical code, determining Marquette must reduce its possessions to about 60 per game rather than the 90 per game they could hit when James was on the floor.

Wow! That blows me away. Would also seem to explain some of the struggles and the decrease in production from Jerel in particular.

I'm shocked by that as well.  It's exactly the same strategy Dick Bennett used to get Wisconsin to the Final Four.  I would never have thought Marquette would use that kind of "slow down the game" technique with all the athletes we have.  But if it works, then Buzz is a genius.  I also heard Buzz say that we needed to quicken the pace on offense to create better shots, so I'm a little confused of what his true game plan is against Missouri. 

I think they need to continue to attack the basket and draw fouls.  But more importantly Cubillian and Acker need to start taking AND hitting outside jumpers to soften the D on McNeal and Matthews.   

[wildbill sb]

Buzz is making my head hurt.

[StillWarriors]

I think they need to continue to attack the basket and draw fouls.  But more importantly Cubillian and Acker need to start taking AND hitting outside jumpers to soften the D on McNeal and Matthews.   

I really felt like Jerel and Wes were getting decent looks most of the time, they were just way off. Jerel's 3s aren't even close. I'm just hoping things balance out and they hit for a crazy percentage against Missouri. Likely, no, but sure would be fun to see.