11th hour email blast making the case for a 5-seed for MU

[bamamarquettefan]

OK, here is the email I sent around to sports media and athletic directors across the US making the case for MU as a 5-seed.  I truly believe that is what we have earned - though I realize it may be as hard to convince some of you as it will be the selection committee :-).  The end references the table on my current crackedsidewalks blog.  Here is the text of what I sent out:

5th place Big East team Marquette should be a 5-seed
Only cold nights by 2 future NBA players prevented wins vs. Nova, Syracuse & Louisville down stretch

I am sorry to see the predictors settling in with Marquette as a No. 7 seed, because they should be a No. 5 seed.  Villanova and Marquette are the most similar teams in the tourney.  They are both great, undersized teams that split their regular season games, finished one game apart in the Big East standings, and then were dead even again in the Big East tournament until Nova's shot with 0.8 seconds gave them a one-point win over MU on Thursday.

So with Nova occupying the No. 3 seed spot that MU had a couple of weeks ago, how can MU have fallen all the way to a No. 7 seed?
   
The five 5/6 seeds MU should leapfrog

Yes, I have to answer the question of "who they should replace."  The five teams I'm going to mention are great teams too, but here is why MU should be ahead of these FIVE current 5/6 seeds

Like MU, LSU was a 3-seed before late season losses, but MU clearly should not have fallen further than LSU.  MU led late in all of their late losses, which were ALL against teams projected to be 1, 3 or 4 seed, while LSU led for less than 3 of 60 minutes in the second half in losing 3 of 4 against teams that probably won't make the tournament.  LSU was blown out by Auburn by 16, by Vandy at home in a game in which THEY LAST LED 2-0 and trailed by double figures almost the whole game, and to MSU in a game in which they last led at the 17:30 mark and were down double digits most of the game.

Clemson lost 4 of their last 5 including a loss to GEORGIA TECH.

West Virginia lost to Marquette by 22 in their only meeting and finished two games behind them in the Big East.   

Purdue and Illinois finished with a worst record (11-7) IN THE BIG TEN, than Marquette had (12-6) IN THE BIG EAST.  I'm not a Big 10 basher, I think they are coming back, but this year there was no comparison between the two conferences.  A similar apples-to-apples comparison would be when West Virginia (10-8 in BE) beat Ohio State (10-8 in Big 10) 76-48 in Columbus.

CURRENT Marquette team is a 5-seed

Despite all the evidence that Marquette should be a 5-seed, they are being talked down two spots based on one argument - the teams are seeded based on the players they will put on the court for the tournament. 

So let's look at the current team.  I noted in a February 15 email that Jerel McNeal, Wes Matthews and Lazar Hayward made Marquette one of only 11 teams with three or more players projected to go in the NBA draft this year or next.  I later wrote a column breaking down the fact that teams with 3 future NBA draft picks make the Elite 8 most of the time, while teams with fewer rarely make it.

However, the argument being pressed is that nothing that McNeal, Matthews and Hayward accomplished this year counts anymore, because that was all before Dominic James broke his foot.

If the players getting the minutes in place of James were having trouble stepping it up, that would be a valid argument.  However, the fact is that the two players getting the extra minutes have proven they are every bit good enough for Marquette still to be considered an elite team.

Point guard Mo Acker has hit 10 of 24 from behind the arc in stepping in four James, and has averaged 3.3 assists to only 1.3 turnovers despite playing the incredible schedule down the stretch.  Swing man Jimmy Butler has added the rest of the minutes, and has scored double figures in three straight games while averaging more than six OFFENSIVE rebounds, including scoring 19 against Nova. 

As I noted in a table on www.crackedsidewalks.com, if projected NBA draft picks McNeal and Matthews had just shot 40% MU would have EASILY beaten Syracuse, Nova and Louisville in the final stretch that has been used as evidence to drop them from a 3-seed to a 7-seed. So when you watch the Big East championship tonight consider that only poor shooting nights for MUs top two players prevented them from beating both of these teams EASILY.

So the only question that should be asked in determining if MU should be a 5 seed or a 7 seed is this, "Do you really think projected NBA draftees Matthews and McNeal are going to continue to shoot 33% and 32% between them in the tournament?"

Unless you believe that, MU has earned a 5-seed this year.  This is still a couple of spots lower than they were when James went down, but way above the current 7-projected seed.

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

Makes a lot of sense and I'm all for it.  However, I'm not sure it can overcome the perception that WV & Syracuse both leapfrogged MU with respect to seeding BE teams in the tourney due to their tournament play.  Therefore, MU is perceived as the 7th BE team, not the 5th, and so will be seeded lowest of all BE teams that make the tourney.  Our 5 seed will probably end up going to WV.  I'm not saying it's right, just how I feel the Committee will look at it. 

[ChicosBailBonds]

Don't be surprised if we get an 8 seed.  Could be anything from a 5 to an 8 in my opinion.  I'm preparing for the worst but hoping for the best.  Actually, I'd like a 6 seed all things being equal.

[nyg]

A #6 would be appropriate right now.especially with all the volatility with losses from teams right around our ranking in last two days.  An eight seed would be devastating. Season almost over, where did the time go? 

[RaleighWarrior]

We will be the lowest seeded Big East team and I'm thinking it will be 8.

[ChicosBailBonds]

We will be the lowest seeded Big East team and I'm thinking it will be 8.

Providence will be lower than us (if they get in) and I think WVU will be on the same line

[Rollout-the-Barrel]

Maybe this is the year we get a break in seeding or matchups?  We are definitely due for a change of luck from the past couple of weeks...

[Jay Bee]

Anything from 5 to 7 is reasonable.

Anything else is EFFIN CRAZY!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Beating the crap out of opponent is what is relevant.

[chapman]

I think we deserve a 6 or 7.  Not going to argue an 8.  We'll see what we get I guess.

[AlumKCof93]

I'll argue an 8.  We shouldn't be lower than a 7, a 6 is what we deserve.

[TheNotoriousOne]

Good luck, MU---kick some @ss in the Tourney and represent the real Big East well. Your Ignatian bros in DC will be pulling for you as we plod through our own March Sadness.  Great upgrade to our conference--let's take back the championship next year from the athletic institutions who played tonight (can't blame 'cuse, without pardoning Devo and the like, you're basically SUNY Binghamton (at best) or Cortlandt at three times the price).      

[chapman]

I'll argue an 8.  We shouldn't be lower than a 7, a 6 is what we deserve.

I just don't see what can be argued besides "ifs" and "almosts".  If McNeal and Matthews do this...well, they've been shooting like garbage for some time now.  We almost did this, well, when you almost win three or four times it's more than just tough luck or one missed shot, it says something of the team.  There may be a handful of teams I can say do not belong ahead of us, but I don't think we have anything to argue for our seeding.  Every year I complain about gifts teams seem to get with their births/seedings being that they were boosted by SOS based on who they played and not who they actually beat, and this year I feel like we're one of those teams.  I'm not going to complain if we get a good seed, but I would see a 5 as a gift and not argue against anyone that criticizes the committee if they were to give it to us.

[krocheck]

Seeding isn't just about making the case for an arbitrary number you think you earned, it is also about meeting some 16 requirements for each team.  Fact is, if we're in the same bracket as Pitt or Louisville (projected BE #1's) then we will have to be in the lower half of the bracket (i.e. 3,6,7,10).  We're not a #3, so 6 or 7 fits.  If we end up in the same bracket as UConn at #2 then we're in the top half (i.e. 4,5,8,9).  Maybe we can get 5 instead of 8 then, but still you never know.

Keith

[Lennys Tap]

Providence will be lower than us (if they get in) and I think WVU will be on the same line



Chicos,

I hope your right and we're on the same line as WVU as they are definitely not an 8. It all depends how much they drop us because of DJ's injury. 5 seems high, hope 8 is low.

[VwArrior1]

Ill be happy with a 6 because we could avoid the number 1 seed till the elite 8 if it happens.  As a 5 you would get a 1 seed most likely in the sweet 16.  This team deserves a 6.

[garekis]

I think there can be no doubt that the committee will view us as the 7th (and, unfortunately, last) of the Big East teams.  I'm not going to be shocked - extremely disappointed, but not shocked - if it uses the James injury as a convenient excuse to drop us as low as a 10 if it's struggling with placements.  We're a very soft target.  Loss of a critical player, last team in from the conference, 1-5 in last 6 games = virtually no floor on how far we could drop.  I bet we get very little to no credit for playing prospective 1, 2, 3, and 4 seeds very close (with one W - Nova, 2 and half months ago).

With all this doom-and-gloom seeding talk, another critical factor may be overlooked:  location.  I'll trade a 6 or 7 in Portland or Boise (and, to a lesser extent, KC, Greensboro, or Miami) for an 8 in Minneapolis (and, to a lesser extent, Dayton or Philly) - particularly, if we get placed in the Midwest (Indy) or East (Boston) regionals.

[GOMU1104]

With all this doom-and-gloom seeding talk, another critical factor may be overlooked:  location.  I'll trade a 6 or 7 in Portland or Boise (and, to a lesser extent, KC, Greensboro, or Miami) for an 8 in Minneapolis (and, to a lesser extent, Dayton or Philly) - particularly, if we get placed in the Midwest (Indy) or East (Boston) regionals.

If we are an 8 seed, that means we get sent to the same place as a 1. Here are where the possible #1 seeds could be sent

Louisville - Dayton
UNC - Greensboro
Uconn - Philly
Pitt - Dayton
Memphis - Kansas City

Going to Dayton or Minny as an 8 seed is unlikely.

[NavinRJohnson]

An 8 seed would just stink because for MU it is an almost sure date with UNC in Greensboro. I'd give MU about a 5% chance of winning that game (if they get there).