Author Topic: How would this team do (Read 4266 times)

Sheriff · « **on:** February 23, 2009, 06:41:21 PM »

against the 02-03 Final Four team? I think this was covered in previous thread, but we may now have seen enough of Buzz and conference play to revisit opinion on this.

gjreda · « **Reply #1 on:** February 23, 2009, 07:20:13 PM »

Gotta go with the 02-03 team. While this team has a ton of heart, it'd be tough to compete with the balance of Jackson and Merritt in the post, Novak and Diener on the perimeter, and Wade slashing the lane.

It'd sure be fun to see McNeal on Wade and vice versa.

Although I think DJ would have his way with Diener.

tower912 · « **Reply #2 on:** February 23, 2009, 07:43:45 PM »

It would come down to coaching.

Novak, Merritt, RJ couldn't guard Wes or Lazar. Diener couldn't guard DJ. DWade and Jerel would be a near push. But, if 02-03 was patient and worked the post up game, playing inside out as the double teams came, they could put up some points, too. Score in the 80's, no prediction on outcome.

drewm88 · « **Reply #3 on:** February 23, 2009, 08:41:01 PM »

That's a good question. I think it comes down to a few questions.
Does Dwight stay out of foul trouble?
How badly do Lazar and Wes burn Novak and Merritt?
How hot does Novak get?

I disagree that Wade Jerel would be a near push. Jerel's great, but he's not that great. Although I would absolutely love to see the two go against each other.

I'm taking 2003, but it's closer than I had thought now that I actually put thought into it.

bilsu · « **Reply #4 on:** February 23, 2009, 08:58:01 PM »

If I had choose a point guard, I would pick a sophomore Diener over a senior James. Diener a better passer, shooter and basketball IQ, while James is a better defender and rebounder. I almost forgot Diener is a much better free throw shooter.
I love McNeal, but I have to go with Wade.
Jackson is an easy pick over Burke.
Matthews easily over Townsend.
Hayward over Merritt.
2003 bench over this years
Intangible this year over 2003.
I take Buzz over Crean.
2003 team would make the final four this year.
This team wins two games at best.

MilWarrior · « **Reply #5 on:** February 23, 2009, 09:11:15 PM »

2 games at best? Just like we were going to the NIT?

bilsu · « **Reply #6 on:** February 23, 2009, 09:19:23 PM »

Without a bench and a center we cannot get farther than two wins.

🏀 · « **Reply #7 on:** February 23, 2009, 09:30:55 PM »

Chris Grimm dominates the game.

gjreda · « **Reply #8 on:** February 23, 2009, 09:34:47 PM »

Quote from: marqptm on February 23, 2009, 09:30:55 PM

Chris Grimm dominates the game.

I disagree. Grimm picks up two moving pick fouls in the first 90 seconds and has to sit out the entire first half.

Regardless, he's still the Reaper.

MilWarrior · « **Reply #9 on:** February 23, 2009, 09:43:35 PM »

I think we've done just fine without a bench or a center. Tourney time is all about match ups. If we get a 3-4 seed, we're not going to have to worry about it. Love the optimism.

HoopsMalone · « **Reply #10 on:** February 24, 2009, 08:21:33 AM »

Having D Wade gives that team a chance to beat any college team really.

Ball2003 · « **Reply #11 on:** February 24, 2009, 08:42:39 AM »

Acker and James would hawk Deiner like they did McAlarney, and Travis would not get many good looks at the basket.

Novak was just a freshman at that point, and I remember a lot of his threes being uncontested shots. He had not yet developed the ability to create his own shots, and our 08-09 defense is quick enough to guard the drive & kick.

Of course Wade is a huge factor, and would most likely get his. But again, remember that we're talking about college Wade, not NBA all-star Wade. McNeal now is just about as good as Wade was then.

I think the current squad would be able to push the game to a rapid tempo, and win a high-scoring game with a lot of turnovers and transitional baskets, despite Robert Jackson's 20-20 night.

NavinRJohnson · « **Reply #12 on:** February 24, 2009, 08:54:10 AM »

Boy, I don't know. I think this year's team would be a very difficult matchup for that '03 team. Not sure they are a better team necessarily, but as far as the matchup goes, I might like this year's model. The UAB game in particular that year comes to mind.

The Man in Gold · « **Reply #13 on:** February 24, 2009, 09:14:58 AM »

In the end it comes down to depth ... Jared Sichting & Tony Gries > Robert Frozena. 2003 teams wins 2,000,000,000,000 - 1,000,000,000,000

wadesworld · « **Reply #14 on:** February 24, 2009, 09:51:52 AM »

Quote from: Ball2003 on February 24, 2009, 08:42:39 AM

Acker and James would hawk Deiner like they did McAlarney, and Travis would not get many good looks at the basket.

Novak was just a freshman at that point, and I remember a lot of his threes being uncontested shots. He had not yet developed the ability to create his own shots, and our 08-09 defense is quick enough to guard the drive & kick.

Of course Wade is a huge factor, and would most likely get his. But again, remember that we're talking about college Wade, not NBA all-star Wade. McNeal now is just about as good as Wade was then.

I think the current squad would be able to push the game to a rapid tempo, and win a high-scoring game with a lot of turnovers and transitional baskets, despite Robert Jackson's 20-20 night.

Comparing Diener and McAlarney is a joke. They are nowhere near the same player. Diener actually stepped inside the 3 point line and handled the basketball.

Novak would get the same open looks he got back then. He got them against the #1 team in the country who was riding a 26 game win streak and knocked down 5 of them. When you have to worry about guarding Wade and Diener on the perimeter and Jackson, and to a lesser extent Merritt, on the inside, it leaves quite a few wide open shots coming for Novak, no matter how quick your team is. You can't guard all 4 of those guys with just 4 guys, no help.

I'm sorry, I love Jerel, but he is not as good as Wade was. His numbers may be better, but that does not make him the better player. The one thing I would take of Jerel's over Wade's is the 3 point shooting. Both are very good defenders, especially off the ball, so that aspect is a push. Wade was a much better rebounder and passer, and had a much higher basketball IQ. He was also much better at finishing after contact, even back in college. There is a reason that Wade was taken with the 5th pick in (arguably) the best draft ever, and Jerel is considered a 2nd round draft pick in what will not be a great draft.

I love this year's team, but I'll take 02-03.

RJax55 · « **Reply #15 on:** February 24, 2009, 10:14:17 AM »

The 02-03 team would win. That team had great balance.

Wade for President · « **Reply #16 on:** February 24, 2009, 10:28:21 AM »

Quote from: NavinRJohnson on February 24, 2009, 08:54:10 AM

The UAB game in particular that year comes to mind.

I presume you're talking about the C-USA tourney game against MU (in L'ville)? I was at that game...and that UAB team gave us fits. Wade's infamous 10 turnover game, with constant pressure on our guards (couldn't get the ball to RJax enough for him to be effective). Our guard play would definitely frustrate TT, Scottie Merritt, and Jackson.

Would be very interesting to see.

reinko · « **Reply #17 on:** February 24, 2009, 10:29:48 AM »

Quote from: Ball2003 on February 24, 2009, 08:42:39 AM

Novak was just a freshman at that point, and I remember a lot of his threes being uncontested shots. He had not yet developed the ability to create his own shots, and our 08-09 defense is quick enough to guard the drive & kick.

Are you infering that Novak ever developed the ability to create his own shot? In all seriousness I think I saw him create his shot only once. He pumped faked a three, got his man in the air, drove and hit a 15-footer. I almost fell of my chair.

CTWarrior · « **Reply #18 on:** February 24, 2009, 10:35:53 AM »

Quote from: Ball2003 on February 24, 2009, 08:42:39 AM

Novak was just a freshman at that point, and I remember a lot of his threes being uncontested shots. He had not yet developed the ability to create his own shots, and our 08-09 defense is quick enough to guard the drive & kick.

Are you kidding? We give up open threes this year like nobody's business! 2003 squad has three NBA players plus Jackson and Merritt down low, neither of whom this team could guard, with other useful players like Sanders (who was better than Burke is), Chapman, Townsend.

I love McNeal, but Wade-McNeal is nothing like a wash. 2009 squad has big quickness advantage, but Diener was not terribly turnover prone. 2003 wins 4 out of 5. I think the current squad is more evenly matched with the 2001-2002 version, with Cordell Henry and Blankson and Namaka but without Jackson and Novak.

Ball2003 · « **Reply #19 on:** February 24, 2009, 10:39:58 AM »

Quote from: wadesworld on February 24, 2009, 09:51:52 AM

Comparing Diener and McAlarney is a joke. They are nowhere near the same player. Diener actually stepped inside the 3 point line and handled the basketball.

I wasn't trying to compare the two. I just don't think Diener was quick enough to shake the harrassing defense of James and Acker.

And to reinko, you are absolutely right. Novak never developed an ability to create his own shot. What I should have said was that he had not yet learned to use his height to shoot over people and make contested shots. His freshman year, he hit a lot of open threes. His sophomore year, when teams knew they had to guard him, his 3PT% dropped from .515 to .430.

StillAWarrior · « **Reply #20 on:** February 24, 2009, 11:51:35 AM »

What if this team started a mini-Ditka at the 5...

MDMU04 · « **Reply #21 on:** February 24, 2009, 12:16:58 PM »

I wonder what Henry Sugar's college basketball projection machine would have to say about this matchup...

Henry Sugar · « **Reply #22 on:** February 24, 2009, 12:32:20 PM »

Quote from: MDMU04 on February 24, 2009, 12:16:58 PM

I wonder what Henry Sugar's college basketball projection machine would have to say about this matchup...

I don't know. A lot of my projections are based on taking data from Pomeroy's Game Plan and then manipulating the info.

Unfortunately, Pomeroy only started doing his Game Plans for 2004. I could go back through old data/box scores/etc and try to calculate the info, but I'm not that bored. It's be a lot of manual data entry.

On the other hand, here's how this year's team would do against last year's team.

Prediction is that they'd win 80-73, with a 74% chance of victory.

They'd win on eFG%, turnover rate, and free throw rate. eFG% would only be a slight advantage, and the loss of OR% would only be a slight disadvantage. The key would be the advantage on turnover rate. Free throw rate would be a big advantage too, but that isn't statistically significant.

so there you go... MU-2009 beats MU-2008 in a fictional matchup by seven. Credit for the victory goes to both the players and Buzz.

Mayor McCheese · « **Reply #23 on:** February 24, 2009, 01:47:53 PM »

Would that 02-03 MU team win the Big East this year?

I seriously think that this years team would put up a mighty good fight on that 03 Final Four team.

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Author Topic: How would this team do (Read 4266 times)