Big East or Big Least?

[Lennys Tap]

This past Monday Marquette 84 stated that the Big East, while EXPECTED to be a or the top conference in college bball this year, was in REALITY not that good and that 6 teams making the NCAA's was more likely than 9. Some of the rational given to support his thesis was borderline silly (Rutgers disappointing season) and some was flatout false (WVU and Syracuse not being competitive). His valid point is that ND and Georgetown, both picked as upper echelon teams by most prognosticaters and ranked in or near the top 10 prior to conference play, have disappointed.

While I agree with this, I would also say that it was almost inevitable that a couple of ranked teams would underperform. When 8 of 18 are projected top 25 and a ninth is on the cusp, there is no room for any of the supposed second division teams to overperform. So unless the "experts" are perfect, some teams slip. So for now Cincinnati and Providence have replaced ND and Gtown in the first division.

Currently, ND and Gtown are tied for 11th in the conference. Marquette 84 sees this as proof of the BEast's weakness. I see it differently. The fact that both are 4-7 yet capable of routing #7 Louisville (ND) and #1 UConn (Gtown on the road) is, to me, indicative of its strength.

I think the BEast is a lock for 8 bids and still has a shot at 9. It wouldn't surprise me if someone with an 8-10 conference record sneaks in. I'm interested in what the rest of the board thinks about the 2008-09 version of the conference.

[PE8983]

Very tough league.  ND lost 7 straight, and I think all were to Top 25 teams.  WV, ND, GTown, UC, Prov, SYR would all win the A-10 (incl Xavier, who I think is overrated).

[bilsu]

To get in with an 8-10 record a team would need to win two games in Big East tournament. The full tournament this year may save Notre Dame and Georgetown as they both should be able to win a first round game against a team that would have been left out of the Big east tournament last year. The only other conference that Georgetown and Notre Dame would have struggled so much in this year would be the ACC.

[MR.HAYWARD]

bottom line is you do not go on losing streaks like GTown and ND did in other conferences becuase the competiton is not that difficult.  ND did not lose to a bad team, Syracuse and GTown have soem really impressive wins and are incredilby talented.  3-7 teams in other conferences dont have 5-6 of those loses to ranked teams and they dont have 3-4-5 future NBA players on their rosters like Syracuse and Georgetown and they dont break out of a slump by beating the #7 team in the country by 35 like ND did.  It's relative I like the bottom 4 teams in the BE against the bottom 4 teams in any conference in America, the botoom 4 in the BE have how many McDonalds AA's?  and Echinique would have been one this year

[Marquette84]

Some of the rational given to support his thesis was borderline silly (Rutgers disappointing season)[/qoute]

What is silly about expecting a team that returns 5 starters while adding a McDonalds AA would be improved?  Every single pre-season guidebook suggested as much.  Even the Big East coaches thought they'd be improved.   

and some was flatout false (WVU and Syracuse not being competitive). [/qoute]

Hmm.  This is where misrepresentation gets you into trouble.

My quote:  "Both are hovering around .500, and moving closer to the bubble."

What is flatout false about that statement?

Syracuse is 6-6, has lost six of their last eight games, and doesn't have a single win against a team with a winning conference record.  I'd say they've moved closer to the bubble.  Am I really "flatout false"?
Do you really think they're an NCAA lock right now?

Until tonight WVU was 5-6 in conference, and 3 of the wins came against Seton Hall, South Florida and St. Johns.   Now, they DID beat providence, so going into tonight they had A win against a team with a winning conference record.  But again, am I really "flatout false" for suggesting that they've moved closer to the bubble through their 5-6 conference play?

So for now Cincinnati and Providence have replaced ND and Gtown in the first division.

Except I don't think the national perception is that Cincinnati and Providence have replaced anyone in the first division.

I think people don't think much of Providence and Cincy. 

IF Georgetown and Notre Dame finish behind PC and UC, it speaks to GU's and ND's weakness, not PC's and UC's strength.

Currently, ND and Gtown are tied for 11th in the conference. Marquette 84 sees this as proof of the BEast's weakness. I see it differently. The fact that both are 4-7 yet capable of routing #7 Louisville (ND) and #1 UConn (Gtown on the road) is, to me, indicative of its strength.

Of course, lets just ignore that my statement was in response to your comment that the league is much tougher this year. 

Right now, it's not shaping up that way.  Right now the league looks a bit weaker than it was last year.

Pomeroy agrees.  His 2008 rating for the league was .8817.   This year it has declined to .8698.   The only reason we're in 3rd place is because the Big 12 has declined even further.

[Lennys Tap]

Marquette84,

Here is your ENTIRE quote regarding WVU and Syracuse: EXPECTATION: WVU and Syracuse would be competitive this year. REALITY:Both teams are hovering around .500 moving closer to the bubble. What threw me was I assumed you were contrasting expectations with reality. Instead it appears you merely repeated yourself- ie both were expected to be competitive and both are competitive (surely .500 in the BEast qualifies as "competitive", no?

As regards Rutgers, I think they probably are a little better than last year, but again, who cares? Do you honestly think that when Bilas says the BEast is the top league and it's not even close Rutgers plays even a minor part in his analysis?

You say that Providence and Cincinnati are not highly regarded nationally. Maybe not, but if they finish ahead of ND and Gtown they will be.

You cite Pomeroy as an analyst who currently ranks the conference slightly lower than last year. So right now it's you and he vs. the rest of the college bball world. You may be spot on but I don't think so. There is no way that ND and Gtown would be 4-7 in ANY other conference. You say six or seven bids and when it turns out to be eight or nine(as it surely will) you'll still insist that's the way it WAS in mid February. I say 8 or 9 today, tomorrow and in March. The announcers in the Vill/WVU game tonight speculated the league may even get 10 in. I'm generally not much a gambler but I'll take 9 vs 6 or 8 vs 7 and you can name the number. Any interest?

[dennycrane]

ND is not very good any way you spin it. It is not only in conference. They were hammered by UCLA. The same UCLA team that lost to Michigan.

The conference in general was overrated before the season began. It may or may not be the best conference. Regardless it has not separated itself from other top conferences.

[GregShimonFor2]

Didn't Notre Dame also beat Texas? The same Texas that beat Wisconsin on the Badgers' home court? No question Notre Dame has flaws. But it showed vs. Louisville it is capable of playing well against a good opponent. Whether ND can do that the rest of the way remains to be seen.

[Marquette84]

Marquette84,

Here is your ENTIRE quote regarding WVU and Syracuse: EXPECTATION: WVU and Syracuse would be competitive this year. REALITY:Both teams are hovering around .500 moving closer to the bubble. What threw me was I assumed you were contrasting expectations with reality. Instead it appears you merely repeated yourself- ie both were expected to be competitive and both are competitive (surely .500 in the BEast qualifies as "competitive", no?


You cite Pomeroy as an analyst who currently ranks the conference slightly lower than last year. So right now it's you and he vs. the rest of the college bball world. You may be spot on but I don't think so. There is no way that ND and Gtown would be 4-7 in ANY other conference. You say six or seven bids and when it turns out to be eight or nine(as it surely will) you'll still insist that's the way it WAS in mid February. I say 8 or 9 today, tomorrow and in March. The announcers in the Vill/WVU game tonight speculated the league may even get 10 in. I'm generally not much a gambler but I'll take 9 vs 6 or 8 vs 7 and you can name the number. Any interest?

Let me make this absolutely clear for you:  I don't believe Syracuse is playing competitive basketball right now.  Period.   They have lost six of their last eight, and have no wins against conference foes with a winning record.  Thats how *I* define competitive.  Apparently, simply being .500 is enough for you.  I actually look at who the wins were against. 

Now, I admitted that Syracuse could still turn it around, but I think you'd have to admit that right now SU is not playing competitively in the Big East right now.

***You say that Providence and Cincinnati are not highly regarded nationally. Maybe not, but if they finish ahead of ND and Gtown they will be.

You seriously think simply finishing ahead of teams that have quite obviously collapsed is grounds for national respect? 

Here's the rankings:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/rankings

I don't see votes for PC and Cincy, do you?  They are already 3 games up on Georgetown and Notre Dame.  You'd think the respect would be coming already if it were to materialize.
 
Providence has proven themselves unworthy of a tournament bid in non-conference play.  They have 4 non-conference losses--none of them to NCAA tournament teams.  They have no defining wins--not in non-conference.  Not in conference play. 


***You say six or seven bids and when it turns out to be eight or nine(as it surely will) you'll still insist that's the way it WAS in mid February.

And that would be exactly correct. 

I said we were closer to six bids than to nine RIGHT NOW.

Bracketology says we have 7 in RIGHT NOW.  That IS closer to six than to nine RIGHT NOW.

What you're counting on is that something might change.  Well, if things change, then we might get more bids.  Right now unless something changes, we're closer to six than to nine.

[Lennys Tap]

84,

I don't know how your Webster's defines "competitive", but anyone who could say that 19-7 and 7-6 in conference doesn't easily exceed any standard you might use doesn't understand what the word means.

I concede you are probably right on Providence.

I don't care what Joe Lunardi says, I still say 8 or 9.

[dsfire]

***You say six or seven bids and when it turns out to be eight or nine(as it surely will) you'll still insist that's the way it WAS in mid February.

And that would be exactly correct. 

I said we were closer to six bids than to nine RIGHT NOW.

Bracketology says we have 7 in RIGHT NOW.  That IS closer to six than to nine RIGHT NOW.

What you're counting on is that something might change.  Well, if things change, then we might get more bids.  Right now unless something changes, we're closer to six than to nine.

For what it's worth, the Bracket Matrix currently has 8 teams in, with Cincy as the last team in and Georgetown second out.

It'll definitely come down to the wire but I'd be very surprised if there were only 6 bids from the Big East.  Five teams are in the top 3 seeds and West Virginia definitely solidified their position on Friday, so unless Syracuse, Cincy, and Georgetown all get beaten out by teams like Oklahoma State and Michigan, we should see more than six.  (Providence is also mentioned in the "others receiving votes"... they'll need to really step it up to make it in.)

[Big Papi]

No way only 6 teams from the Big East make the dance.  Probably 8, maybe 9 if someone like ND or Georgetown get hot.

Locks: UConn, Pitt, Marq, Louisville, Villanova and West Virginia are near locks. 
Syracuse is almost there.
Providence, Cincy need some more work.
ND, Georgetown need a lot.

[classof70]

Lennystap says, "I'm generally not much a gambler".  That's not how I remember it!     Seems one  of the big bets at Lenny's in those days was Stanford vs the spread!!!!

[dennycrane]

Didn't Notre Dame also beat Texas? The same Texas that beat Wisconsin on the Badgers' home court? No question Notre Dame has flaws. But it showed vs. Louisville it is capable of playing well against a good opponent. Whether ND can do that the rest of the way remains to be seen.

That was there one good win. By one point very early in the season. 7 game losing streak. Some games they were not even competitive. No way on hell they were ever a top 10 team. Maybe the most overrated team in the nation early this year.

[GregShimonFor2]

Beating Louisville doesn't qualify as a good win?

Look, I agree ND is flawed. But your constant ripping of the Big East and all things MU is really kind of old and really kind of silly.

[dennycrane]

Beating Louisville doesn't qualify as a good win?

Look, I agree ND is flawed. But your constant ripping of the Big East and all things MU is really kind of old and really kind of silly.

Try to stay on topic. ND had a 7 game losing streak. They had one top 50 RPI neutral court win over Tx way back in Nov. That was by one point. Right now Tx has fallen to bubble status. G-town at home was their other top 50 RPI win. Another team not looking very good right now.

ND was ranked top 10 at one point before many games were played. They have fallen to the far side of the bubble. They are the definition of a team that was overrated.

[Pardner]

http://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=BE

So, what conference is having a great year?  ACC:  yes.  Pac 10: debateable.  Big 11:  No way.  SEC: Down.  B12:  Not really.  CUSA?  Memphis and a cloud of dust.  MVC and other middies:  Down. 

Pomeroy rates BE third.  I just think all conferences are down a bit. Conference tourneys may be the decider in a lot of these NCAA spots.  TBD

[GregShimonFor2]

Try to stay on topic. ND had a 7 game losing streak. They had one top 50 RPI neutral court win over Tx way back in Nov. That was by one point. Right now Tx has fallen to bubble status. G-town at home was their other top 50 RPI win. Another team not looking very good right now.

ND was ranked top 10 at one point before many games were played. They have fallen to the far side of the bubble. They are the definition of a team that was overrated.

Notre Dame was over-rated. I agree. Those things do happen from time to time and the Big East is not a forgiving conference. I realize ND is far from a top 10 team as you continually point out. Still, the Irish did beat Louisville and Texas, and could still make a late run for a NCAA Tournament bid. Not likely, but possible.

[Lennys Tap]

Seth Davis of CBS states at halftime of the Indiana/Illinois game that AT THIS MOMENT the Big East gets 9 teams in the tournament.

[bilsu]

The Big East will probably get nine teams. However, if they only got seven that would probably save the Big East two first round losses, which would make their overall NCAA tournament record better. In the long run does the Big East look better if they go 5-2 in first round or 5-4 in first round? That is not intended to be a prediction, but I do expect the 8 and 9 Big East teams to lose in the first round.

[Marquette84]

Seth Davis of CBS states at halftime of the Indiana/Illinois game that AT THIS MOMENT the Big East gets 9 teams in the tournament.

Then he's an idiot.

There is NO WAY that there are 9 teams right now deserving of an NCAA bid.

So go ahead and make the argument that Providence or Cincinnati deserve a bid.  You tell me their record in the last 10, their best non-conference and conference wins.  Their good losses.  Their record against the top 25 and top 50 teams.  

If you can convince me that they're worthy based on something other than conference affiliation, I'm willing to listen.

[RawdogDX]

I don't care what Joe Lunardi says, I still say 8 or 9.

You cite Pomeroy as an analyst who currently ranks the conference slightly lower than last year. So right now it's you and he vs. the rest of the college bball world.

So you don't care what 84 says, what Pomeroy says or Lunardi.  But you use 'the rest of the college bball world' as part of your argument.  Doesn't seem consistent.

The big east is good but several times you've talked about how it's 'much improved' over last year and that is completely baseless.  Unless you count preseason hype as a basis.

[Lennys Tap]

Maybe Seth Davis is an idiot. Maybe Jay Bilas (who says the Big East is the top conference and its not even close) is an idiot. Maybe the announcers doing the WVU/Villanova game who said 10 Big East teams might make it are idiots.

But your guru (Pomeroy) and his "numbers" say the Big 10 is better than the Big East. To anyone who actually watches and understands basketball that's the height of lunacy. But he's not an idiot. Right.

[Marquette84]

Maybe Seth Davis is an idiot. Maybe Jay Bilas (who says the Big East is the top conference and its not even close) is an idiot. Maybe the announcers doing the WVU/Villanova game who said 10 Big East teams might make it are idiots.

But your guru (Pomeroy) and his "numbers" say the Big 10 is better than the Big East. To anyone who actually watches and understands basketball that's the height of lunacy. But he's not an idiot. Right.

I asked you if you could make the case that Providence and Cincinnati deserve an NCAA bid on the basis of something other than conference affiliation.

Can you do it or not?

[Big Papi]

***You say six or seven bids and when it turns out to be eight or nine(as it surely will) you'll still insist that's the way it WAS in mid February.

And that would be exactly correct. 

I said we were closer to six bids than to nine RIGHT NOW.

Bracketology says we have 7 in RIGHT NOW.  That IS closer to six than to nine RIGHT NOW.

What you're counting on is that something might change.  Well, if things change, then we might get more bids.  Right now unless something changes, we're closer to six than to nine.

Your quoting Lunardi yet Lunardi has 7 Big East teams in the tourny RIGHT NOW and 3 of his first 4 out are Big East teams(Cincy, Georgetown and Providence).  So looks like we are closer to 8 and 9 than 6 RIGHT NOW.