Hey Sugar...

[ATWizJr]

how does yesterday's result relate to the stats you posted prior to the game?  What was the difference?

Thanks.

[🏀]

I got a feeling his full depth analysis is coming... per usual

[77ncaachamps]

I got a feeling his full depth analysis is coming... per usual

Why the face?

[🏀]

Why the face?

Because he had to ask.

[Henry Sugar]

Thanks for asking.  I probably wasn't going to throw it on the CS post, but I will put it here now.  The original prediction was a four point victory and 69% chance of a win, so all of the recommendations baseline from that.  Each recommendation is cumulative.  Yes, I know that the prediction is plus 13 when we won by 22.  The recommendations are the "top five", and not all aspects of the model, and it's only a model so there are limitations.

Recommendations vs. Results

Specific Statistics Recommendations (In order of importance) with results

1.   Achieve an eFG% of 55% or higher, which translates to 27 made field goals (including 7 threes), which is right at season average and gives 70% chance of Marquette win

Result – eFG% was 45.5%. Advantage West Virginia.  Changed margin of victory prediction from plus four to minus four

2.   Limit WVU to an eFG% of 47.5% or less, which translates to 26 made field goals (including 7 threes), which is right at their season average

Result – WVU eFG% was 39.2%.  Advantage Marquette.   Changed margin of victory from minus four back to plus four

3.   Limit WVU to an offensive rebounding percentage of 40% or less (16 offensive rebounds, which is one less than their average)

Result – WVU had an OR% of 35.9%.  Advantage Marquette.  Changed margin of victory prediction from plus four to plus six 

4.   Commit turnovers at a rate of 21% or less (~14 turnovers)

Result – Turnover Rate was 12.3%.  Advantage Marquette.   Changed margin of victory prediction from plus six to plus 13

5.   Force WVU into a turnover rate higher than 20.5% (also about 14 turnovers)

Result – WVU Turnover Rate was 20.4% - Push. 

[rugbydrummer]

Thanks for asking.  I probably wasn't going to throw it on the CS post, but I will put it here now.  The original prediction was a four point victory and 69% chance of a win, so all of the recommendations baseline from that.  Each recommendation is cumulative.  Yes, I know that the prediction is plus 13 when we won by 22.  The recommendations are the "top five", and not all aspects of the model, and it's only a model so there are limitations.

Yes, as in their players fouling out and their coach committing a technical

[MUWarrior06]

  lame