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* Next up: The long cold summer

Marquette
Marquette

Madness

Date/Time: Oct 1, 2022, 7:00 pm
TV: NA
Schedule for 2021-22
19-13

Author Topic: Hey Sugar...  (Read 3311 times)

ATWizJr

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Hey Sugar...
« on: January 11, 2009, 10:44:09 AM »
how does yesterday's result relate to the stats you posted prior to the game?  What was the difference?

Thanks.

Retire0

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Re: Hey Sugar...
« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2009, 10:54:45 AM »
I got a feeling his full depth analysis is coming... per usual >:(
New TallTitan bold prediction: Sacar Anim will play in more NBA games than Markus Howard.

TallTitan's bold prediction of Davante Gardner being drafted in 2014.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=27259.msg310060;topicseen#new

77ncaachamps

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Re: Hey Sugar...
« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2009, 11:08:46 AM »
I got a feeling his full depth analysis is coming... per usual >:(

Why the face?
SS Marquette

Retire0

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Re: Hey Sugar...
« Reply #3 on: January 11, 2009, 11:20:09 AM »
New TallTitan bold prediction: Sacar Anim will play in more NBA games than Markus Howard.

TallTitan's bold prediction of Davante Gardner being drafted in 2014.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=27259.msg310060;topicseen#new

Henry Sugar

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Re: Hey Sugar...
« Reply #4 on: January 11, 2009, 09:21:12 PM »
Thanks for asking.  I probably wasn't going to throw it on the CS post, but I will put it here now.  The original prediction was a four point victory and 69% chance of a win, so all of the recommendations baseline from that.  Each recommendation is cumulative.  Yes, I know that the prediction is plus 13 when we won by 22.  The recommendations are the "top five", and not all aspects of the model, and it's only a model so there are limitations.

Recommendations vs. Results

Specific Statistics Recommendations (In order of importance) with results

1.   Achieve an eFG% of 55% or higher, which translates to 27 made field goals (including 7 threes), which is right at season average and gives 70% chance of Marquette win

Result – eFG% was 45.5%. Advantage West Virginia.  Changed margin of victory prediction from plus four to minus four

2.   Limit WVU to an eFG% of 47.5% or less, which translates to 26 made field goals (including 7 threes), which is right at their season average

Result – WVU eFG% was 39.2%.  Advantage Marquette.   Changed margin of victory from minus four back to plus four
 
3.   Limit WVU to an offensive rebounding percentage of 40% or less (16 offensive rebounds, which is one less than their average)

Result – WVU had an OR% of 35.9%.  Advantage Marquette.  Changed margin of victory prediction from plus four to plus six 

4.   Commit turnovers at a rate of 21% or less (~14 turnovers)

Result – Turnover Rate was 12.3%.  Advantage Marquette.   Changed margin of victory prediction from plus six to plus 13

5.   Force WVU into a turnover rate higher than 20.5% (also about 14 turnovers)

Result – WVU Turnover Rate was 20.4% - Push. 
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rugbydrummer

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Re: Hey Sugar...
« Reply #5 on: January 12, 2009, 05:56:47 PM »
Thanks for asking.  I probably wasn't going to throw it on the CS post, but I will put it here now.  The original prediction was a four point victory and 69% chance of a win, so all of the recommendations baseline from that.  Each recommendation is cumulative.  Yes, I know that the prediction is plus 13 when we won by 22.  The recommendations are the "top five", and not all aspects of the model, and it's only a model so there are limitations.


Yes, as in their players fouling out and their coach committing a technical :)

MUWarrior06

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Re: Hey Sugar...
« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2009, 08:15:29 PM »
 ::) lame

 

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