[Cracked Sidewalks] Well, that changed fast

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Well, that changed fast

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (Rob Lowe)

plus a brief look at Rutgers...

Not ten days ago, life was filled with "doom and gloom", as I anticipated a most likely view for Marquette to finish 9-9.  However, fresh off the team's first ever 3-0 start to the Big East, Marquette would need to only finish 6-9 in order to end up 9-9.

Therefore, with some more data, I wanted to take a look at the most likely scenarios as the team is playing right now.  Really can't emphasize that enough.  As the team is playing right now.




Home wins (high confidence) - DePaul, St. Johns, Seton Hall
Home wins (tougher games) - West Virginia, Georgetown, UConn, Syracuse

Road wins (high confidence) - NONE
Road favorites (tougher games) - Providence, DePaul, USF
Road underdogs (but winnable) - Notre Dame, Villanova
Unlikely wins - Georgetown, Louisville, Pittsburgh

Again, based on how the team (and our opponents) have been playing, there's not a lot I'd quibble with.  The story is a lot better for Marquette, with the opportunity to be favorites in several road games, with no predicted home losses.  I'd say the win percentage is probably too high for the Syracuse and UConn home games, and probably too low for the UL and Pitt road games.  More games will get more accurate.

But what is the most likely scenario for the rest of the season?




Right now, the most likely scenario is that Marquette will finish with the same record as last year (11-7).  Given the model, the view is far more optimistic than pessimistic.

Optimist - 90% chance that the team will finish with a record of 9-9 or better.  60% chance that the team will finish with the same record as last year.  40% chance that the team will improve on last year's record, with a crazy 20% chance that the team will get to 13 wins.  Win tomorrow, and the team virtually assures itself a 0.500 record or better, with a 27% chance at 13 wins.

Pessimist - There's still a 40% chance right now the team ends up a worse record than last year, and a 25% chance they don't break 0.500 in conference.  Lose tomorrow and the most likely scenario drops to 10 wins, with a 90% confidence of finishing with no more than 12 wins.

As for the game at Rutgers, here are the Four Factors



For me, the key to the game was actually the eFG% that Marquette was able to achieve against Rutgers, especially since Rutgers was #12 in the country at eFG% defense.  Marquette did a great job shooting the ball.  Considering how often Rutgers coughs up the ball, only forcing a turnover rate of 23.9% was actually kind of a letdown.  In addition, Marquette had a big advantage at Free Throw Rate, but it was much less significant that the turnovers or shooting percentage.

One thing to keep an eye on is the defense.  Last year, Marquette's offense was consistently around 1.06 points per possession in conference, regardless of home or road.  What suffered, however, was their defense, which was noticeably worse on the road (1.07 points per possession).  It was only one game, but we'll keep watching...

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2009/01/well-that-changed-fast.html

[MR.HAYWARD]

all  that babble and not a single prediction  does nt your super competer kick out a little piece of paper like that looks like a fortune ala a science fiction movie with an actual prediction/estimate.  My prediction before the season is 11-7 and that has not nor will not change i dont need a graph to tell me that actually if i changed my mind it would be to the better as this team has already proven a toughness on the road

[Henry Sugar]

Please tell me you don't actually have a degree from Marquette.

[🏀]

all  that babble and not a single prediction  does nt your super competer kick out a little piece of paper like that looks like a fortune ala a science fiction movie with an actual prediction/estimate.  My prediction before the season is 11-7 and that has not nor will not change i dont need a graph to tell me that actually if i changed my mind it would be to the better as this team has already proven a toughness on the road

THE COMPUTERS ARE TAKING OVER! AHHH! PANIC!!!

[greenman]

What is a "super competer"?

[Skatastrophy]

babble

Sums up your posts succinctly.

[Pardner]

the man from the u of chicago is and always will be Harry Markowitz

How's your portfolio doing?  You may want to look at the graph.

[Pardner]

I hope folks here appreciate all the custom stats Henry does for us (or most).  I know, this is a ton of work to do this extra custom modeling for our banter enjoyrment. 

Henry, you higlighted our offensive FT rate--which is 8th nationally.  The flip side of that is what we discussed previously and what Buzz has been stressing--and that is our opponents' FT rate.  Last year, we were one of the worst fouling teams in the country--this year our rate has dropped from 41% to 26.5% of possessions...we are now 126th vs. 262 last season.  Fact is, RU scored as many FG's and more 3pters...but we beat them on the FT line.  For all the possessions we lost due to our rebounding...we gained them back on steals, forced TO's.  Our D is really getting better despite the last 12 minutes of the RU game--the Cinnci game was a clinic.  We'll need to bring it tomorrow.

[ATWizJr]

Vay Kay time?

[jmayer1]

Great analysis as always Suge

[77ncaachamps]

Enjoyed it (as usual).

I am thrilled at the start of the season, but assuming that there fatigue begins to set in and/or an injury bug hits the team, the last 5 games are going to be brutal no matter how hot we are right now...

Feb 21    Georgetown    Away       
Feb 25    Connecticut    Home    
Mar 1    Louisville            Away    
Mar 4    Pittsburgh            Away    
Mar 7    Syracuse            Home

I hope Buzz has the prescience to manage minutes and practices of Jerel, DJ, Wes, and Zar in order to make them last through the NCAA tourney.

[Henry Sugar]

Pardner, thanks.  We've looked at this in the past, and I agree that the FTR is a good deal.  After all, I've argued in the past that MU fouled too much and that the extra turnovers forced weren't worth it.

However, I'm still not seeing the FTR as being as important as any of the other "Four Factors".  I've run regression analyses a few different ways (against all opponents and only against top 200 opponents), and the numbers are pretty consistent.


eFG%    (1.414) - avg 53.8
TO%   (-1.554) - avg 17.5
OR%   (0.783) - avg 32.8
FTR   (0.154) - avg 48.5

So given 70 possessions, our eFG% counts for ~53 points, TO% costs us ~19 points, OR% gains ~18 points, and FTR is worth 5 points.  It's back of the envelope math, but still.

It's a similar story on defense.  Maybe the value comes in the intercept associated with the regression, but FTR just doesn't seem as important for Marquette's success.  The real value seems in keeping our players on the court.

[bilsu]

We beaten an 0-3, 0-2 and 1-1 teams. I figure a 6-3 or 7-2 home record and a 3-6 or 4-5 road record. 9-9 to 11-7. If we beat West Virginia than I think we will get 11 wins. If we lose to West Virginia we are looking at 9 wins.

[4everwarriors]

Where on the graph would one find deflections?

[Badgerhater]

Where on the graph would one find deflections?

That was the old coach....this one needs a column for paint touches.

[DaCoach]

I wouldn't put a lot of credibility in the stats from the 2nd half of the Rutgers game. when we went 21 up and took our foot off the pedal, it created a whole lot of numbers that weren't indicative of who we are. To me our results will be predicated on match ups. We'll win most games that don't put us up against a team with a dominant inside game. Our quick perimeter players will usually overpower a similar type team. I want to see us up against ND and Harangody before attempting to guestimate our win total.

[ErickJD08]

I understand that the season is young but I know our last 5 game schedule and I would be happy with 2 wins of the five, expect 1 win of the five, and could see 0 wins of the last five games.  We need a great record coming into that stretch.  With this perspective, all of these "favored" games are really critical wins.