Bracketology

[ATWizJr]

Anyone know when the weekly Bracketology forecasts from Lunardi start?

[MR.HAYWARD]

about a month ago

[ATWizJr]

How often is it updated?

[MonsterWebWarrior]

It was updated today and is a bunch of crap.  He has us as a 6 seed and Wisconsin as a 5.  He's in my doghouse for the week.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

[Badgerhater920]

Yea, funny joke Lunardi. How, with a loss to us, and ZERO quality wins, is UW seeded ahead of us?

On a lighter note, a look at the Big East seeding:

1 seeds: Pitt
2's: UConn, Gtown
3's: Cuse
4's: WVU, L'ville, ND
6's: MU, Nova

I mean that's pretty decent.

[dwaderoy2004]

here's the problem..with that many big east teams, certain teams are going to be seeded lower (higher number) than they maybe shoudl be to insure that teams from the same conference don't play each other until at least the sweet 16.  we are a 5 seed on the s-curve this week, but with three 4 seeds from the big east, we had to get bumped down to a 6.  can't believe louisville or WVU would be ahead of us though.  it's still early though, i think some of it now has to do with projecting as much as it does actual data. 

[Badgerhater920]

very good point - its true. The number of teams that get in from the big east actually benefits teams from other conferences that get less teams in. An example of this is our 6 seed compared to UW's 3 seed last year.

[MonsterWebWarrior]

Yeah, I was just disgusted that Wisconsin was a 5 and ahead of us.

[drewm88]

here's the problem..with that many big east teams, certain teams are going to be seeded lower (higher number) than they maybe shoudl be to insure that teams from the same conference don't play each other until at least the sweet 16.  we are a 5 seed on the s-curve this week, but with three 4 seeds from the big east, we had to get bumped down to a 6.  can't believe louisville or WVU would be ahead of us though.  it's still early though, i think some of it now has to do with projecting as much as it does actual data. 

Exactly. We were probably a 5 seed last year also if not for the log jam of BE teams ranked slightly above us. Avoiding that this year could be crucial.

[Badgerhater920]

Yeah, I was just disgusted that Wisconsin was a 5 and ahead of us.

Agreed.

[bilsu]

Yeah, I was just disgusted that Wisconsin was a 5 and ahead of us.

I think he predicts the rest of the season. Our schedule is tougher than UW's and therefore in the end they may have the better record and finish higher in their conference. In the Big 10 you play 8 teams twice and two teams once. UW only plays Michigan St. and Ohio St. once. Based on today's AP poll we play teams ranked 1, 5, 9 twice, 11,13,18,23 and 25, which means 9 of our last 16 games are against ranked teams. UW plays teams ranked 8, 14 twice and 22 twice, which means 5 of their last 16 games are against ranked teams.

[NavinRJohnson]

Just win, baby!

[MR.HAYWARD]

wisky has a much higher rpi than us right now. so to does wvu.  nd and loserville probably there due to hype

[dsfire]

Kentucky in the first round, go figure.  Obviously doesn't mean much right now, but the other regionals could've landed us against Stanford or Dayton 

Lunardi also has UWM projected to make it in as the Horizon League tourney winner (and Butler as an at-large), which surprised me.  Then again, I also didn't realize they were 5-0 in conference right now.  Best of luck to them.

edit: aha, found an answer.

Lunardi uses the current leader in the conference (Milwaukee) as the auto bid, and awards an at-large to Butler. Were Butler in first place at this time, there would be only one Horizon team in his bracket.

[Warrior1969]

So Butler is good enough for an at large bid from that conference but will not win the conference?  Hmmm somehow I find that hard to believe?

[MU B2002]

Based on the material quoted above your post...

Lunardi says they are good enough for an at large bid, but he uses the current leader as the automatic bid.  He is not projecting UWM to win, just giving them the spot since they are currently the leader.

[Badgerhater920]

Based on the material quoted above your post...

Lunardi says they are good enough for an at large bid, but he uses the current leader as the automatic bid.  He is not projecting UWM to win, just giving them the spot since they are currently the leader.

Then he should probably give Marquette the higher seed than Wisconsin, since we are currently the better team, despite the fact we will probably lose more games and finish lower in our conference since it is much much tougher.

[MU B2002]

I am not defending his rankings, just clarifying the issue around Butler & UWM.

You will get no argument from me on ranking Marquette over the badgers.

[Brewtown Andy]

I think he predicts the rest of the season.

Nope, it's based on "What if the tournament started the moment the bracket was posted?"

[Mayor McCheese]

Then he should probably give Marquette the higher seed than Wisconsin, since we are currently the better team, despite the fact we will probably lose more games and finish lower in our conference since it is much much tougher.

I don't know.. Penn St is looking pretty tough, barely lost to Wisky at the Kohl Center, now beating Purdue... watch out now.

Also, your argument for the since the Big East has more teams in it they need to spread the teams out so they don't play each other doesn't work.... he has 7 Big Ten teams in the tournament... including 3 at a 5 seed... including Ohio St, Wisconsin and Purdue... how are any of the teams getting a better seed than Marquette is beyond me... unless does Lunardi just want to see Marquette face Kentucky again... maybe he can play us against "It's Indiana, It's Indiana"... oh wait.

[Badgerhater920]

I don't know.. Penn St is looking pretty tough, barely lost to Wisky at the Kohl Center, now beating Purdue... watch out now.

Also, your argument for the since the Big East has more teams in it they need to spread the teams out so they don't play each other doesn't work....

I agree, Mayor. My argument was that unless he's going directly on RPI, it seems as if he's predicting the seeds rather than seeding teams how they are playing at the moment...because I completely agree, there's no reason for Ohio St, Purdue, and most noteworthy, Wisconsin to be seeded ahead of Marquette, unless he's looking at the fact that those 3 teams have a real shot at finishing top 4 in their conference, while that is going to be incredibly difficult for MU. Either way, it doesn't make sense, because we can probably agree a team that finishes 7th-9th in the Big East is just as good as a team that finishes top 4 in the Big Ten.

[CTWarrior]

If you click on a team in Lunardi's bracket, he gives a little more information including where the team falls on the S curve.  Marquette was 18, which would be a 5 seed in a vacuum.  Wisconsin was 19, which also should be a 5.

If this is what the committee truly believed and we were placed in the bracket with Pittsburgh, you can bet they would drop us to a 6 to put us in the other half of the bracket away from Pitt.

Lunardi is very good at what he does, but he has missed on us in recent years.  Besides, it's early January.  Hard to get too worked up about this stuff right now.

[muhoosier260]

that would be pretty awesome if MU was in the indianapolis regional, better than memphis, boston, or arizona. hey maybe even you know who would make an appearance! btw, where is the final four this year?

[reinko]

that would be pretty awesome if MU was in the indianapolis regional, better than memphis, boston, or arizona. hey maybe even you know who would make an appearance! btw, where is the final four this year?

I vote for the Boston regional because the Garden is only about 2 miles from my house.

[jmayer1]

that would be pretty awesome if MU was in the indianapolis regional, better than memphis, boston, or arizona. hey maybe even you know who would make an appearance! btw, where is the final four this year?

detroit