Anyone up for going 18-13 this year?

[Henry Sugar]

Because that's the Pomeroy prediction as of this moment, including 7-11 in conference.

http://kenpom.com/sked.php?y=2009&team=Marquette&t=p

Here's how it works.  It's essentially a prediction based on each team's efficiency margin and Pomeroy Ranking, which is basically a win% calculation.  The estimation of win is a log 5 calculation (see below for more info). Since Marquette is ranked low (#67), that gives us a lower chance of winning many games.

For the optimists, MU is actually decent at the raw offensive numbers but could be a lot better on the raw defensive numbers.  The team gets downgraded overall on our rankings because of strength of schedule.  So the SOS will improve.  Also, one can say that we're dealing with the new system and a short bench.  Finally, the prediction percentages (like Villanova being favored) don't count for the notion that a team plays better at home instead of on the road.

For the pessimists, at this point last year Marquette was already top 10 or top 15.  Again, the SOS was stronger because of games against Duke and UW.  However, we were a better team in the rankings and rarely strayed from the top 15 of the Pomeroy rankings all year.  In fact, we finished #11.  There's a real risk that our current ranking (#67) is where we'll hover all year.  And the prediction for our schedule was that we'd finish something like 29-2.

Bill James Log 5 explained
http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/playoff2002.htm

[RedWebster]

Would that get us an NIT bid?

[TallTitan34]

He has Georgetown at #1?

[Wareagle]

Because that's the Pomeroy prediction as of this moment, including 7-11 in conference.

http://kenpom.com/sked.php?y=2009&team=Marquette&t=p

Here's how it works.  It's essentially a prediction based on each team's efficiency margin and Pomeroy Ranking, which is basically a win% calculation.  The estimation of win is a log 5 calculation (see below for more info). Since Marquette is ranked low (#67), that gives us a lower chance of winning many games.

For the optimists, MU is actually decent at the raw offensive numbers but could be a lot better on the raw defensive numbers.  The team gets downgraded overall on our rankings because of strength of schedule.  So the SOS will improve.  Also, one can say that we're dealing with the new system and a short bench.  Finally, the prediction percentages (like Villanova being favored) don't count for the notion that a team plays better at home instead of on the road.

For the pessimists, at this point last year Marquette was already top 10 or top 15.  Again, the SOS was stronger because of games against Duke and UW.  However, we were a better team in the rankings and rarely strayed from the top 15 of the Pomeroy rankings all year.  In fact, we finished #11.  There's a real risk that our current ranking (#67) is where we'll hover all year.  And the prediction for our schedule was that we'd finish something like 29-2.

Bill James Log 5 explained
http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/playoff2002.htm

While I'm a huge Pomeroy fan, our efficiency numbers are probably negatively affected by the fact we haven't been playing with either O'Tule or Fulce.  I'm pretty sure Pomeroy's numbers don't account for injuries, they just use past performance to predict future results.  Therefore, I think our numbers would be a bit higher but for the two injuries, and our predicted wins would go up at least a bit.  I think his numbers get more accurate as the season wears on and you get a larger sample size. 

As a side note, I won a 100 person bracket last year primarily by using Pomeroy's efficiency numbers to pick winners.  Also, KenPom has Indiana going winless in the Big Ten.

[downtown85]

i think 20 wins gets us into the tourney.  If we only win 18 it looks like we are NIT bound. 

It puts new importance on the UT and the NC state games. 

[The Man in Gold]

Maybe Buzz is setting his sights on 5 wins in 5 days in the BET?

[mwbauer7]

Here are his predictions for the whole conference: (ammended)

[bilsu]

Right now I do not think we can count on Otule and Fulce making a difference. What Pomoroy's system does not take into account is that under a new coach we are learning a new system. I would expect to see greater improvement as the team improves. I certainly think 18-13 is possible, but I would be disappointed with that. If we win 50% of our remaining games that puts us at 19-12 and 1-1 in Big East tournament for a 20-13 record.

[The Man in Gold]

South Florida at 14-4...clearly more data is needed.     They may be improved, but I am definitely selling that stock.

[madtownwarrior]

something must be wrong with your chart - Pomeroy has South Florida going 4 - 14  (more like it should be)

http://kenpom.com/sked.php?team=South%20Florida&t=p

[Marquette65]

Cincinnati and the Hall above MU----Don't think so.

The Hall has been terrible so far, and although Cinncy's record is not bad , other than Xavier, they have played no one.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I'll stick with 20-11 and 9-9 in conference, but we're talented enough to get to 13 wins.  Schedule is brutal.


Isn't Seton Hall like 9-1 or something?

[Pakuni]

Cleveland State 72, Syracuse 69.

Guess Ken didn't see that one coming.

[mwbauer7]

something must be wrong with your chart - Pomeroy has South Florida going 4 - 14  (more like it should be)

http://kenpom.com/sked.php?team=South%20Florida&t=p

Indeed it is... proofreading oversight.... All fixed now.

[Pardner]

Cleveland State 72, Syracuse 69.

Guess Ken didn't see that one coming.

Neither did the Syracuser coed, apparently

[MuMark]

IIRC At this time last year Pomeroy had us only losing 3 or 4 conference games.

I remember thinking how ridiculous that prediction seemed at the time.

Turned out it was...........

[mviale]

Thank Goodness college basketball is more about teamwork and heart than some calculation.

See Nova over Gtown in 1985

[Dry White Toast]

Suge Night -- Give me some context.  How accurate have his predictions been in past years.  Are these types of predictions more or less valuable pre-confrence.  (I know...give them and inch - of stats - and they want a mile).  I just can't help but to think that there is more to this story than meets the eye.

[ecompt]

There's no way to tell how we'll be playing with a full roster in the second half of the season, so these projections are nothing more than conversation fodder. On the other hand, 7-11 won't get us an NIT bid because I'm pretty sure you have to play .500 ball in your conference to be considered.

[Badgerhater920]

I'll stick with 20-11 and 9-9 in conference, but we're talented enough to get to 13 wins.  Schedule is brutal.


Isn't Seton Hall like 9-1 or something?

yea seton hall is 8-1 with a win over then-ranked USC. only loss to memphis.

[Henry Sugar]

Suge Night -- Give me some context.  How accurate have his predictions been in past years.  Are these types of predictions more or less valuable pre-confrence.  (I know...give them and inch - of stats - and they want a mile).  I just can't help but to think that there is more to this story than meets the eye.

Little known story.  I actually got my start on Cracked Sidewalks by dangling Tim over a balcony and forcing him to sign over the rights to post.

Anyways, these predictions are basically just a data point.  The forecast for the remainder of the season is wildly inaccurate.  While I certainly wouldn't get freaked out by the prediction, I would treat it like a red flag.  Keep it in the back of your mind as a potential source of concern.  If our Pomeroy ranking does not improve through January, then it'll be a rough year.

Like I said in the original post, there are reasons for both optimism and pessimism with the predictions Pomeroy gives. 

In about a week, I'll generate my own predictions, similar to the previous post I did on Cracked Sidewalks (below).  Basically need a few hours to crunch data.  Based on last year's data, there was an 88% confidence we'd get more than 18 wins and 78% confidence we'd get to at least 0.500 in conference play.  Of course, my predictions were already more bearish (21 wins)

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2008/11/analyzing-season-predictions.html

[THEGYMBAR]

Without any additional injuries I believe we will win 21 games. A win tonight goes a long, long way in March. MU by 3 tonight!!!!

[The Man in Gold]

My own personal calculations have us going 18-0 in conference... write that down.

(On a completely unrelated side note, my calculations were made on a napkin at a bar while drinking after the Badger game.  I stand my its statistical accuracy until proven wrong.)