Will we ever be happy?

[Hards Alumni]

Sure, there can be injuries, but I don't think those significantly change game prep. Greg McDermott isn't going to completely change his offensive scheme or defensive philosophy if Steven Ashworth misses a game. He'll just bring in a lesser player and ask him to replicate what Ashworth does. And Marquette would have prepared for that player as well.

Okay.  But a guy like Kalkbrenner being out would drastically change what Creighton does.

I'd actually be pretty surprised if the coaching staff is spending significant time during the conference tournament scouting 10+ teams. And I think it would have to be more than 10. If you think you're a 7 or 8 seed - something you really wouldn't know until your conference tournament is over - that means you need to prepare for every possible 7 seed (so, anyone in the 6-8 range) and every possible 9 seed (everyone in the 7-10 range). So, there are going to be at least 19 teams to consider. How much legit scouting of 19 teams can you do in a day or two?

3/14 was the last game
3/16 was selection Sunday
3/21 was Marquette vs UNM

Taking your assumption of 19 teams, and 10 coaches (including Shaka) I think it would be reasonable to do a dry run of 20 teams in two days.  Each coach gets a day to break down one team.  And then take the film gathered and knowledge garnered, and formulate a plan on Sunday night.  I don't think it is unreasonable to prep for a team in 3 or 4 days.

I'm suggesting this is what IS happening, only that I think it's feasible.

[brewcity77]

So, there are going to be at least 19 teams to consider. How much legit scouting of 19 teams can you do in a day or two?

Using tools like Synergy and CBB Analytics, putting one coach and the video coordinator specifically on that task, if they put in two 10-hour days, I think you can probably get a pretty good base scout. No, you won't have the full scout done, but in an hour you can find out tendencies, preferred plays, preferred defensive sets, and pull tape on those plays.

I'm a rank amateur and I pulled together a New Mexico preview in less than two hours after digging into their Synergy numbers, play type tendencies from hoop-explorer, and shot charts from CBB Analytics. When I do the Dreams and Nightmares article, it takes me about 4-5 hours and I'm looking at everyone on the most likely seed lines. I'm going to guess Shaka's staff is far better and can go far deeper in a shorter timeframe than I can.

It won't be the full picture, but it will be enough that once you know who your opponent is, you can use that base scout to fully flesh out what you're up against much faster.

[Viper]

Statistics have a way of evening out over time.

probably true. However, many of us would like some ncaat evening out before checking out 🪦 !

[MUDPT]

Torvik's coaches NCAA ratings

https://barttorvik.com/cgi-bin/ncaat.cgi?type=coach

[Its DJOver]

Torvik's coaches NCAA ratings

https://barttorvik.com/cgi-bin/ncaat.cgi?type=coach

Is there a way to filter and adjust based on # of appearances/# of years as a HC? Neither of the lists that have been provided seem to do that, which should be considered IMO, otherwise you get the Shaheen Holloway/Porter Moser/Kevin Ollie type outliers.  Thanks.

[brewcity77]

I don't know if Shaka will get us there or not. I will note that of the guys on Pakuni's (mostly comical) list, Shaka is the second youngest (only Will Wade is younger) and nobody under the age of 50 has a positive "difference" score.

The funniest thing about the list is seeing two-time national champion Bill Self on the "Avoid them" list. If Shaka has the success of Self in the next 18 years at Marquette, sign me up. Also, why does Self's time before KU not count? He went to five straight tournies and three second weekends with Tulsa and Illinois, yet only his 21 years at KU count?

Self also has 11 more wins than Izzo, who is the "God of March." Funny when "God" is looking up at someone who is to be avoided.

As far as Shaka, he's essentially the same as Brian Dutcher but with more trips to the tournament. Both had one good run, Shaka had more success outside that, but Dutcher is "Still a pretty good bet" while Shaka is so bad he gets his own tier. Funny stuff.

[Pakuni]

I don't know if Shaka will get us there or not. I will note that of the guys on Pakuni's (mostly comical) list, Shaka is the second youngest (only Will Wade is younger) and nobody under the age of 50 has a positive "difference" score.

The funniest thing about the list is seeing two-time national champion Bill Self on the "Avoid them" list. If Shaka has the success of Self in the next 18 years at Marquette, sign me up. Also, why does Self's time before KU not count? He went to five straight tournies and three second weekends with Tulsa and Illinois, yet only his 21 years at KU count?

Self also has 11 more wins than Izzo, who is the "God of March." Funny when "God" is looking up at someone who is to be avoided.

As far as Shaka, he's essentially the same as Brian Dutcher but with more trips to the tournament. Both had one good run, Shaka had more success outside that, but Dutcher is "Still a pretty good bet" while Shaka is so bad he gets his own tier. Funny stuff.

You're asking the list to measure something it wasn't created to measure.
It's pretty simply a measure of how a coach performs relative to his seed in the tournament.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

If only these college basketball programs could hire someone tasked with getting the best out of players while they deal with those circumstances.

And yes, you have way less time to scout and prepare for the first round of the tournament than a regular season game. You're learning your opponent Sunday evening and have, at most, five days to prepare.
Shaka and his staff know right now who they're playing next season and have a minimum 7.5 months and as much as 10 months to prepare for them.
Are you under the impression that they don't start prepping for these games until it's the next one on the calendar? They'll be prepping game plans for UConn and Creighton and St. John's this summer.

And just so we're clear, coaching a regular season NFL game is no different than coaching a Super Bowl, and coaching a friendly is no different than coaching a World Cup Final?

I highly doubt any significant prep in terms of game-planning for our 2025 opponents is taking place over the summer. 

[tower912]

How can it?  All of the rosters are in flux.

[brewcity77]

You're asking the list to measure something it wasn't created to measure.
It's pretty simply a measure of how a coach performs relative to his seed in the tournament.

While ignoring some seasons (such as Self before Kansas) and dismissing the value of overall results. I get what it's trying to do, but calling Izzo "God of March" when Self has more titles and 11 more wins (while dismissing the 10 tourney wins he had before KU) is just a bit silly, even if Izzo did much of his work from lower seeds.

But bottom line, the bigger deal for me is age. Most of these guys are mid-50s to late 60s. Shaka could easily be doing this for 20 more years and I'm pretty sure that he will get beyond the Sweet 16 on more than one occasion in that time.

All I need is one streak of 6 wins before Shaka leaves to be happy. Maybe we get it, maybe we don't, but seeing Self in the "Avoid them" while the linked T-Rank list has Tony Bennett dead last, I'm willing to think there's hope for Smart.

[Scoop Snoop]

I've asked this question at least 2500 times for about a decade.  Get guys with zoomability and handles.  Get guys with muscle and hops.  Get guys that can lace the triple.  Get guys that usurp rebounds all over the floor.  Get guys that are unflappable and own crunch time.  This would make me exceedingly happy and it absolutely should be taken care of and quickly.

The Rolling Stones beg to differ

You can't always get what you want
You can't always get what you want
You can't always get what you want
But if you try sometimes
Well, you just might find
You get what you need

[The Sultan]

You're asking the list to measure something it wasn't created to measure.
It's pretty simply a measure of how a coach performs relative to his seed in the tournament.

I will acknowledge that Shaka has underperformed in the NCAAT while at MU.

But this is a TERRIBLE way of determining the value of a coach. Between 2007 and 2021, Bill Self lead Kansas to 1-seeds 10 times, 2-seeds 3 times and a 3 and 4 seed once. He won two national championships and three additional Final Fours. And by this metric he somehow is bad? Cmon... When you are a 1 seed there is NO WAY to outperform your seed.

So I guess what it takes to be a "God of March" is to tank your regular season, then outperform your seed. Hey you don't win as many national championships and conference titles, but you get a real cool nickname at least.