[Cracked Sidewalks] Cracketology: Marquette Falls

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

For context, this is an incredibly strong year for the top 30 teams.  Marquette is 28th in Kenpom, with KP Net Rating is +21.59.

I went back to 2002, looking at 24 years worth of data.  22 of those years, Marquette's rating would be top 20 in Kenpom. The only other year outside the top 20 would be 2017, when we'd rank 24th.

Using T Rank to compare Marquette's resumé to the 10 most similar resumés, only Seton Hall in 2018 got as low as an 8. The other 9 teams had a seed range of 5-7. The overall average tournament seed (for all 10 years) was a 6.

In conclusion, it's a top heavy year for college basketball.  This year's Marquette team is good enough for a 6 seed most years, if not a 5. But due to the nature of this particular season, Marquette very well could be an 8 seed.

[The Sultan]

My guess.

8-seed v. Baylor in Wichita with the winner likely playing Houston.

Gah. Houston and Baylor can't be together. So I will say the 9-seed will be New Mexico.

[HutchwasClutch]

Gah. Houston and Baylor can't be together. So I will say the 9-seed will be New Mexico.

Lunardi has us vs Baylor, with Auburn next as of last night.  Haven't checked this morning.

[The Sultan]

Lunardi has this matchup, with Auburn next as of last night.  Haven't checked this morning.

Neither one of those second round match-ups is great.

[HutchwasClutch]

Neither one of those second round match-ups is great.

Nope.  Sure aren't. 

[Elonsmusk]

It is interesting to me that MU has wins over WI, Maryland, Purdue - who project to be 3, 4, and 5 seeds by Lunardi - yet he has MU an 8 seed and inferior Big 10 teams Oregon and Illinois he has as 5 and 6 seeds. 

I do not get the love for Illinois, despite their 20 ranking in Ken Pom.

All this aside I know the above isn't how seeding is done, but it seems to me our earlier season wins against the top of the Big 10 should carry us above an 8 seed.

[The Sultan]

It is interesting to me that MU has wins over WI, Maryland, Purdue - who project to be 3, 4, and 5 seeds by Lunardi - yet he has MU an 8 seed and inferior Big 10 teams Oregon and Illinois he has as 5 and 6 seeds. 

I do not get the love for Illinois, despite their 20 ranking in Ken Pom.

All this aside I know the above isn't how seeding is done, but it seems to me our earlier season wins against the top of the Big 10 should carry us above an 8 seed.

It's the weakness of the Big East this year. Very top heavy with a lot of bad programs at the bottom.

5 BE programs had NET rankings of 80 or worse.  Only 2 B10 programs were ranked similarly. 

[brewcity77]

Brew

I'm trying to talk myself into us back at the 7 line.

Would you be surprised at all to see us ahead of Missouri? They have a sub .500 record against the Top 2 Quadrants and are just 3-7 on the road.

We have more Q1+Q2 wins and have a 7-6 road record.

Or are the predictives for Mizzou enough to keep them there barring surpise?

No high major team that has entered Selection Sunday ranked top-15 in kenpom has been lower than a 6. That fits Mizzou. I do see the negatives to Missouri and an 8 seed wouldn't completely shock me, but their win at Florida is huge, and is bolstered by another win over a top-2 seed in Alabama. I just think their top end wins overpower what we have.

[Hards Alumni]

While I don't expect it, my best case scenario would be for MU to get a 7 seed and be put in a pod with MSU.

I think MU would match up better with the Spartans than any of the other 1 and 2 seeds if MU is fortunate enough to get past the first round.

hmmmm