[Cracked Sidewalks] Championship Week & The Bubble: Does It Matter?

[brewcity77]

Every bracketologist or TV talking head likes to spend time this week talking about what teams need to do to play their way into the NCAA field. But do teams really "play their way in" to the field, or is that a myth with the reality being the Selection Committee opinions are set before the first games of Championship Week tip off? Cracked Sidewalks digs into the Championship Week results of 100 bubble teams from the past 5 years to determine the truth behind the "play your way in" narrative that will be widely embraced this week:

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2021/03/championship-week-bubble-does-it-matter.html

For those interested in the raw data, it can be found here:

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2021/03/championship-week-runs-bubble-data.html

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Every bracketologist or TV talking head likes to spend time this week talking about what teams need to do to play their way into the NCAA field. But do teams really "play their way in" to the field, or is that a myth with the reality being the Selection Committee opinions are set before the first games of Championship Week tip off? Cracked Sidewalks digs into the Championship Week results of 100 bubble teams from the past 5 years to determine the truth behind the "play your way in" narrative that will be widely embraced this week:

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2021/03/championship-week-bubble-does-it-matter.html

For those interested in the raw data, it can be found here:

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2021/03/championship-week-runs-bubble-data.html

Brew - lets assume for second that Marquette beats Gtown, beats Nova, beats Seton Hall and then loses to Creighton or UCONN in the final.

In that scenario, how far below the cutline does MU (16-14; 11-12 in BE games) fall?  I would have to imagine it'd be somewhat close.  In that scenario, truthfully probably a vs. Depaul win away from dancing.     

[brewcity77]

Brew - lets assume for second that Marquette beats Gtown, beats Nova, beats Seton Hall and then loses to Creighton or UCONN in the final.

In that scenario, how far below the cutline does MU (16-14; 11-12 in BE games) fall?  I would have to imagine it'd be somewhat close.  In that scenario, truthfully probably a vs. Depaul win away from dancing.   

After digging into this, I don't think they have a chance. I think they are too far from consideration right now and honestly think it's more likely they get in as an automatic bid than they even get a NIT bid. I don't think 16-14 assures them the NIT either despite the quality wins because I think the NIT will still take long looks at teams that would traditionally get in (Belmont) as auto-bid runners-up.

Marquette had to have a winning record before BET play started. Had they beat UConn, I might still give them an at-large shot, but because they didn't, I think there is absolutely zero chance Marquette gets an at-large bid to the NCAA field.

EDIT: Further, I don't think Seton Hall nor St. John's have much of a chance. I'm also not bullish on Xavier. I really think this is a 3-bid league unless someone other than Villanova, Creighton, or UConn win the auto-bid (I would have UConn as a lock at this point due to their resume with Bouknight in the lineup). Xavier is on 31/33 brackets at bracketmatrix.com that were posted before the Marquette loss, but just 43/70 that posted the day after the loss. As some of those likely didn't reflect the late-night loss, I think there's a real chance they were knocked out by Marquette. If that's the case, they likely need to win the auto-bid to get back in. Even if they manage to beat Creighton and UConn before falling in the final, history shows us that won't be enough to get them across the cutline.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

After digging into this, I don't think they have a chance. I think they are too far from consideration right now and honestly think it's more likely they get in as an automatic bid than they even get a NIT bid. I don't think 16-14 assures them the NIT either despite the quality wins because I think the NIT will still take long looks at teams that would traditionally get in (Belmont) as auto-bid runners-up.

Marquette had to have a winning record before BET play started. Had they beat UConn, I might still give them an at-large shot, but because they didn't, I think there is absolutely zero chance Marquette gets an at-large bid to the NCAA field.

To be clear, I wasn't suggesting they have a chance to get in.  I too think its BET title or bust.  That being said, if conference tournament games count the same as the rest (who knows, most think they don't), I do think MU's resume in that scenario has to get them within spitting distance of the cutline.  They'd have better wins than most of teams in the field.  Like I said, probably a vs. Depaul win away from being in. 

Also, I personally couldn't give two fuc*s about the NIT.  Will I watch the games?  Sure.  But IDGAF about it, and neither should anyone else.  This program not making the NCAAs 90% of the time is a joke. 

[rocky_warrior]

Will I watch the games?  Sure.  But IDGAF about it, and neither should anyone else. 

Well then, it's decided folks.  We'll shut down scoop since nobody should GAF.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

This program not making the NCAAs 90% of the time is a joke.

Marquette hasn't been a program that makes the NCAA "90% of the time" since the 70s. We had the one 8 year tournament streak under Buzz and TC but that was sandwiched by 2 NIT appearance on the front end and 2 no postseasons on the back end. The last time we made the tournament 9 times in 10 seasons was from 72-73 to 82-83 (Hank's last season as coach).

[brewcity77]

That being said, if conference tournament games count the same as the rest (who knows, most think they don't), I do think MU's resume in that scenario has to get them within spitting distance of the cutline. 

As the entire point of this article was to determine if conference tournament games matter beyond the automatic bids, I'd suggest clicking the link above and starting there.

[willie warrior]

Highly likely that Virginia and Michigan State with the Hauser brothers will be dancing  while the only dancing our team will be doing is trying to pull the ankles out of the crap we are currently in. Wonder if the Hausers regret their poor choice. Think not. Thank you Wojo-Dukiet

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Well then, it's decided folks.  We'll shut down scoop since nobody should GAF.

You care about the NIT, Rocky? 

[rocky_warrior]

You care about the NIT, Rocky?

If Marquette ends up in the NIT (unlikely), I'll absolutely care.  So will thousands of other fans.

edit: and despite your statement, you also said you'd watch.  So you do care.  Just like posting here shows you care.  You might not be happy with the season, but you actions show that you care.

[JakeBarnes]

Highly likely that Virginia and Michigan State with the Hauser brothers will be dancing  while the only dancing our team will be doing is trying to pull the ankles out of the crap we are currently in. Wonder if the Hausers regret their poor choice. Think not. Thank you Wojo-Dukiet

I don't really care what either Hauser thinks. They quit on the team. On to the next one.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

If Marquette ends up in the NIT (unlikely), I'll absolutely care.  So will thousands of other fans.

Gotcha.  I was being a bit tongue in cheek, as I would watch (and have watched) MU play in the NIT, just like I watch every MU game.  But its hard to get excited about the NIT.  Only the most die hard of CBB fans would even turn an NIT game on if their team isn't playing.  I guess its a testament as to where this program is that some fans are hoping to watch NIT games.  Pretty pathetic set of circumstances this program has found itself in - not sure how anyone could really argue otherwise. 

[drewm88]

Appreciate the analysis, Brew. Now please help me forget it next time we're on the bubble and hoping to play our way in through winning a couple in the BET.

[willie warrior]

I don't really care what either Hauser thinks. They quit on the team. On to the next one.

No, they quit on Wojo-Dukiet. A big difference. Your lack of caring shows how you value Wojo-Dukiet. The guy getting millions and gave the Hausers short shrift. And has hurt the program badly. To each his own.

[ATL MU Warrior]

Gotcha.  I was being a bit tongue in cheek, as I would watch (and have watched) MU play in the NIT, just like I watch every MU game.  But its hard to get excited about the NIT.  Only the most die hard of CBB fans would even turn an NIT game on if their team isn't playing.  I guess its a testament as to where this program is that some fans are hoping to watch NIT games.  Pretty pathetic set of circumstances this program has found itself in - not sure how anyone could really argue otherwise.

I doubt anybody is hoping to watch NIT games. I think most are hoping to watch more MU games.  If that's in the NIT then so be it.

[wisblue]

As a very general matter, I think the conference tournaments matter for purposes of the bubble and seeding, but not anywhere near as much as a lot of fans seem to think.

I've seen fans project their team as moving up a seed line for every game they win in the conference tournament, forgetting that games in the conference tournament carry no more weight than any other game during the season. Said another way, the position that a team has earned in 30 games isn't dramatically affected by what happens in 2 or 3 more. 

That having been said, the tournaments may have a little more impact this year for the simple reason that the games will account for a higher percentage of the teams' games than in a normal season.

[Uncle Rico]

Highly likely that Virginia and Michigan State with the Hauser brothers will be dancing  while the only dancing our team will be doing is trying to pull the ankles out of the crap we are currently in. Wonder if the Hausers regret their poor choice. Think not. Thank you Wojo-Dukiet

Joey has been hot trash at Michigan State

[brewcity77]

Appreciate the analysis, Brew. Now please help me forget it next time we're on the bubble and hoping to play our way in through winning a couple in the BET.

Just pretend 2016 Michigan is the standard, stick your fingers in your ears, and sing "La la la" until we earn a NCAA bid