Odds are long for MU

[MU82]

I can't believe I forgot to place a bet on MU to win the national title when I was in Vegas!

According to Bovada, here are the odds ...


4/6/16               10/6/16             Current Odds (11/10/16)
Duke                            9/2                    4/1                    15/4
Kansas                         10/1                  10/1                  7/1
Kentucky                      6/1                    15/2                  7/1
Arizona                         22/1                  14/1                  16/1
North Carolina               12/1                  16/1                  16/1
Oregon                         20/1                  16/1                  16/1
Wisconsin                     25/1                  16/1                  16/1
Michigan State              12/1                  16/1                  20/1
Syracuse                      50/1                  25/1                  20/1
Villanova                       8/1                    10/1                  20/1
Indiana                          20/1                  25/1                  33/1
Virginia                         20/1                  25/1                  33/1
Connecticut                   33/1                  40/1                  40/1
Louisville                      10/1                  25/1                  40/1
Texas                           50/1                  66/1                  40/1
Xavier                           25/1                  33/1                  40/1
Gonzaga                       66/1                  66/1                  50/1
Purdue                          33/1                  50/1                  50/1
UCLA                            66/1                  50/1                  50/1
California                      100/1                66/1                  66/1
Maryland                       33/1                  50/1                  66/1
NC State                       66/1                  66/1                  66/1
West Virginia                 28/1                  50/1                  66/1
Iowa State                     40/1                  66/1                  75/1
Miami Florida                40/1                  66/1                  75/1
Oklahoma                     50/1                  66/1                  75/1
Florida                          75/1                  100/1                100/1
Iowa                             75/1                  100/1                100/1
Michigan                       66/1                  66/1                  100/1
Texas A&M                   66/1                  100/1                100/1
Baylor                           60/1                  66/1                  150/1
Butler                            100/1                100/1                150/1
Cincinnati                      100/1                100/1                150/1
Georgetown                  150/1                100/1                150/1
Florida State                 150/1                150/1                150/1
Ohio State                    100/1                150/1                150/1
Seton Hall                     50/1                  66/1                  150/1
USC                             150/1                150/1                150/1
Wichita State                 66/1                  100/1                150/1
Arizona State                100/1                100/1                200/1
Dayton                         150/1                200/1                200/1
Notre Dame                  100/1                200/1                200/1
San Diego State            200/1                200/1                200/1
South Carolina              200/1                200/1                200/1
St Mary's CA                 200/1                200/1                200/1   
Tennessee                    200/1                200/1                200/1
Vanderbilt                     100/1                200/1                200/1
VCU                             150/1                200/1                200/1
Washington                   500/1                200/1                200/1
Arkansas                      250/1                300/1                250/1
Kansas State                250/1                250/1                250/1
Marquette                     250/1                250/1                250/1
Mississippi State           100/1                300/1                250/1
Pittsburgh                     250/1                250/1                250/1
SMU                             75/1                  100/1                250/1
Alabama                       250/1                300/1                300/1
Colorado                      150/1                300/1                300/1
Georgia                        250/1                300/1                300/1
Georgia Tech                250/1                300/1                300/1
Illinois                           250/1                300/1                300/1
Memphis                       250/1                300/1                300/1
Minnesota                     250/1                300/1                300/1
Mississippi                   250/1                300/1                300/1
Nebraska                      300/1                300/1                300/1
Oklahoma State            250/1                300/1                300/1
St John's                      300/1                300/1                300/1
Virginia Tech                 300/1                300/1                300/1
Wake Forest                 300/1                300/1                300/1
Auburn                          250/1                500/1                500/1
Boise State                   250/1                500/1                500/1
Boston College             1000/1              500/1                500/1
BYU                             150/1                500/1                500/1
Clemson                       250/1                500/1                500/1
Colorado State              250/1                500/1                500/1
LSU                              100/1                300/1                500/1
Massachusetts              500/1                500/1                500/1
Missouri                        300/1                500/1                500/1
Oregon State                250/1                500/1                500/1
Penn State                    500/1                500/1                500/1
St. Joseph's                 500/1                500/1                500/1
Stanford                       300/1                500/1                500/1
Temple                         500/1                500/1                500/1
TCU                              1000/1              500/1                500/1
Valparaiso                    Off the Board    Off the Board    500/1
Washington State          1000/1              500/1                500/1

[barfolomew]

Yes, but Dayton dropped from 150/1 to 200/1 after our Secret Scrimmage Smackdown.
Vegas knows which way the wind blows, baby.

[CTWarrior]

No wonder the can pay the electric bills in Las Vegas.  If you give us a 2/3 chance to make the tournament, a 50% chance in our first game and then a 1/3 chance for a win each game the rest of the tournament, that works out to roughly 762:1.  Our odds of winning the tournament are not near that good this year.  In actuality, I'd estimate our real odds are closer to 10,000/1. 

[wadesworld]

Yes, but Dayton dropped from 150/1 to 200/1 after our Secret Scrimmage Smackdown.
Vegas knows which way the wind blows, baby.

Dropped a couple seed lines because Sammy torched 'em, ai'na?

[warriorchick]

*Sigh* 

Are we going to have to have the conversation again about how odds are based on wagering behavior, and not necessarily the actual chances of a team winning?

[CTWarrior]

*Sigh* 

Are we going to have to have the conversation again about how odds are based on wagering behavior, and not necessarily the actual chances of a team winning?

I understand that completely.  I'm just saying that pretty much that whole list past the first 25 teams or so are total sucker bets.

[avid1010]

*Sigh* 

Are we going to have to have the conversation again about how odds are based on wagering behavior, and not necessarily the actual chances of a team winning?

casinos are not just the "middle man" in all of this...

[bilsu]

I was there three weeks ago and passed on the bet. I will be there again next week and I will again pass on the bet. I do not need to win money to be happy with MU winning the title.  The last time I indirectly betted on MU was the year they went to the final four with Wade. While I was actually making the bet on MU, I say indirectly because they were in the rest of the field category. Now that was a fun bet, because I not only had MU, but I also had a chance to win on any other team that did not have their own line. Last year I bet on Maryland, because I thought they were better than the odds and it turned out they were not as good as the odds.
Wisconsin at 16 to 1 is too low of odds. At 30 to 1, which is around where it originally open would of been an interesting bet. I would have to win a lot of money for me to be happy with a Badger win and even if I made that bet I would still be rooting for them to lose, even if they were playing in the championship game.
I somewhat like Duke, so in most cases I could root for them in the championship game, but the odds are too low to make it a good bet.
Kentucky is my second most hated team to WI and I would not want to have to root for them in a championship game unless they were playing Wisconsin. I suspect 7-1 is also to low of odds for a team coached by Caliprari.
My brother who is a big Badger fan thinks Oregon will win the championship. So I think if I decide to make a bet on this I would bet on either Oregon or Arizona. I like their 16-1 odds and would have no trouble rooting for either of them as long as they are not playing a Big East team. Villanova at 20-1 is also  interesting. Having a bet on someone in the tournament is a lot of fun, but I do have my teams I root for, which includes all Big East teams, and of course the teams I hate that I root against. I am just thankful that I no longer feel the need to root for Louisville as I did when they were in the Big East.
Part of the consideration of making a bet is whether you will win enough to make it worth the effort to cash it in. One year I did win one of my $2 teaser bets on football bowl games (picked 7 out of 7) and it paid just over $100. However, following their recommendation I had to go to the trouble of sending it certified mail to claim my win.
Now, if one of you guys want me to make a bet for you on MU I will consider this. However, if you win, you will have to host and pay for a party inviting all MUscoopers. If you want to do this come see me at the Howard game (section 200, row Q, seat 8). If it helps you find me I am 5'6", somewhat over weight, balding 64 year old man. I will not make the bet, if I do not have money in hand.

[#UnleashSean]

Section 200. Row Q. Aim for the shiny bald head with my peanuts. Got it.

[oldwarrior81]

Wisconsin now listed as 14/1 on the vegasinsider website.  Oregon at 12/1, Villanova 15/1

btw,  Marquette opened as a 3.5 dog to Vandy, and the line has moved to  1.5

[Windyplayer]

Even Vegas underestimates us. Ho hum...

At least, we can profit from it.

[bilsu]

Wisconsin now listed as 14/1 on the vegasinsider website.  Oregon at 12/1, Villanova 15/1

I hate it when the odds drop, it like the opposite of getting something on sale.

[Babybluejeans]

Just looked at Bovada's futures lines and they have Villanova 16/1 and UNC 20/1.

Yes, please.

[Dr. Blackheart]

btw,  Marquette opened as a 3.5 dog to Vandy, and the line has moved to  1.5

KPom has us winning by 3, at a 60% clip.  73-70

[cheebs09]

[bilsu]

KPom has us winning by 3, at a 60% clip.  73-70

Wilson 3 for the win

[source?]

Wilson 3 for the win

Wow, I didn't know Kenpom was that specific.

[real chili 83]

But,I am.  DuWil for SOTG.

[fjm]

SOTG will be Cheat tomorrow

[wadesworld]

You're only as good as your last player.

[jsglow]

No wonder the can pay the electric bills in Las Vegas.  If you give us a 2/3 chance to make the tournament, a 50% chance in our first game and then a 1/3 chance for a win each game the rest of the tournament, that works out to roughly 762:1.  Our odds of winning the tournament are not near that good this year.  In actuality, I'd estimate our real odds are closer to 10,000/1.

We pave the roads in gold brother!

[Marcus92]

I'd be curious to know what the odds were on Nova at the start of last season.

[Smokin' Jae]

Wisconsin now listed as 14/1 on the vegasinsider website.  Oregon at 12/1, Villanova 15/1

btw,  Marquette opened as a 3.5 dog to Vandy, and the line has moved to  1.5

Line has moved all the way to mu -1.5. The public pounced on MU as a dawg, 89% of bets against the spread have come on MU tonight.

[oldwarrior81]

I'd be curious to know what the odds were on Nova at the start of last season.

Villanova was listed at 25/1 back in April 2015 (for the 2016 championship).    That dropped to between 12/1 and 16/1 by December.