RPI

[ChicosBailBonds]

Pomeroy has 3 for sure wins left: DePaul, @St. John's, Georgetown

Probable Losses (7): @Nova, Xavier, @ Seton Hall, @ Xavier, @ Creighton, Nova, @ Butler

That's 9 losses right there.

Toss-Ups, 40-50% chance of winning (4): Butler, Providence, Creighton, @DePaul

So, MU wins all of the first group and all of the last group, that's 9 wins.  And you have to win one of the probable losses to get to 10.  And all of that is without losing one of the for sure wins or toss-ups.  Don't see it happening.  Also, we are currently ranked 29th in "luck" by Pomeroy.  We will probably lose a close game or two in there as well.

Nothing for sure in college hoops.  At SJU will be really tough.  DePaul seems to get us every year or at least play us down to the wire, maybe it was a Buzz thing.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I truly believe that because of our youth we will improve more than other teams in conference do as the season goes on. Enough to make the tournament? Not sure

[jsheim]

Pomeroy has 3 for sure wins left: DePaul, @St. John's, Georgetown

Probable Losses (7): @Nova, Xavier, @ Seton Hall, @ Xavier, @ Creighton, Nova, @ Butler

That's 9 losses right there.

Toss-Ups, 40-50% chance of winning (4): Butler, Providence, Creighton, @DePaul

So, MU wins all of the first group and all of the last group, that's 9 wins.  And you have to win one of the probable losses to get to 10.  And all of that is without losing one of the for sure wins or toss-ups.  Don't see it happening.  Also, we are currently ranked 29th in "luck" by Pomeroy.  We will probably lose a close game or two in there as well.

That's a good rundown..thanks.
I was thinking along the same lines...to go 10-8 we have to win a bunch of close games, not lose any "freshmen" games...and somehow overachieve against a superior opponent, perhaps on their court.

But some things to remember:
* upside of our freshmen higher than upside of typical juniors/seniors.
* Henry has not had a great game yet that we know he's capable of (see Junior Worlds game he took over). A couple of those perhaps?

Lets win one of the next two...those are probable listed as losses....lets get ahead of the game!!

[brewcity77]

A few things...first, I started a thread to test how well RPI Wizard works. I will be comparing the RPI ratings on March 6 with the projected RPI ratings as of today, January 11, for 25 teams in the NCAA from 11 different leagues.

Next...CBB pointed out that with a 10-8 record, our RPI could swing from 59-71 (I believe, without looking back). That really isn't that much. I stated earlier the expected RPI would be 65 with a 10-8 league record. So depending on how you move the victories, there's a +/-6 margin of error. The reason I started the other thread was to see how accurate they are. If most of their projections come in 6 off, I'd say that's not so good. If they are generally within 3-4 of projected, that's a valuable tool in my opinion. My guess is it'll be closer to 3 than 6.

[Litehouse]

Current RPI has Villanova #1 and Xavier #2, so we should get a nice boost this week win or lose.

[MU82]

Pomeroy has 3 for sure wins left: DePaul, @St. John's, Georgetown

Probable Losses (7): @Nova, Xavier, @ Seton Hall, @ Xavier, @ Creighton, Nova, @ Butler

That's 9 losses right there.

Toss-Ups, 40-50% chance of winning (4): Butler, Providence, Creighton, @DePaul

So, MU wins all of the first group and all of the last group, that's 9 wins.  And you have to win one of the probable losses to get to 10.  And all of that is without losing one of the for sure wins or toss-ups.  Don't see it happening.  Also, we are currently ranked 29th in "luck" by Pomeroy.  We will probably lose a close game or two in there as well.

Damn. I guess our lads might as well not even bother showing up to play.

[Jay Bee]

Current RPI has Villanova #1 and Xavier #2, so we should get a nice boost this week win or lose.

Unfortunately that's not how it works. Your opponents' RPI doesn't directly impact yours.

Think about the two components that can swing significantly...

1) MU's adj W-L
Currently, MU's record is 9.6-4.8, good for .6667...
IF MU loses both games this week, their record falls to 9.6-6.8 or .5854...
That's a drop of .0813... x 25% = .0203

2) Opp's W-L (ex games vs. MU)
Currently, MU's opp's W-L = .4865
If they play Nova and X, it improves to .5329
That's an improvement of .0464... x 50% = .0232

Component 3 is more difficult to move meaningfully...
The net of 1) and 2) is a positive .0029.

MU's currently at .5405... add .0029, we're at .5434

As of today, that would mean MU improves from #115 in the RPI to a three-way tie for #111.

Again, the DETAILS of the RPI calc are so very important. Blanket statements are difficult to make.. usually when speaking on the RPI, "it just depends..."

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Wisconsin lost again, to Northwestern this time. Bryant McIntosh had his way and then some with Koenig. After Trimble, he may be the best PG in the B1G.