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Author Topic: Betting On Tourney Games  (Read 1825 times)

Tugg Speedman

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Betting On Tourney Games
« on: March 20, 2015, 11:01:12 AM »
In theory the betting line balances off the money so their is an equal amount of winning and losing money.  Therefore, no one "won" or or "lost" because the favorites did so bad against the spread (ATS).

In reality, how do you think the betters feel about the favorites going 3-13 ATS yesterday?





March Madness 2015: Betting Lines, Over/Unders, Predictions Against The Spread For Thursday's Games
By  Anthony Riccobono
March 19 2015 9:33 AM EDT

http://www.ibtimes.com/march-madness-2015-betting-lines-overunders-predictions-against-spread-thursdays-1852388

Kentucky needs to beat Hampton by 35 points in order to cover the point spread in their first game of the 2015 NCAA Tournament.

The 2015 NCAA Tournament officially got underway on Tuesday, but March Madness truly begins on Thursday with the Round of 64. Over two days, 32 games will be played as teams begin their quest to win college basketball’s national championship.

Kentucky is the No.1 overall seed, and they are the biggest favorites in what is technically the second round. They are giving No.16 Hampton 34.5 points in their Thursday night contest. While it won’t be easy for the Wildcats to cover the spread, 10 of their 34 victories have come by 30 points or more.

While a No.16 seed has never beaten a No.1 seed, teams are getting closer to doing so. In 2014, three of the four No.1 vs No.16 matchups were decided by 12 points or less.

The most difficult Thursday game to predict seems to be the matchup between No.8-seeded Cincinnati and No.9-seeded Purdue. The Boilermakers had opened the week as favorites, but the betting line has since moved to a pick’em. Historically, the No.9 seed has a slight edge over the No.8 seed.

Cincinnati isn’t the only underdog with a higher seed than their opponent. No.11-seeded Texas was almost left out of the field, but they are giving No.6-seeded Butler 1.5 points. No.10-seeded Ohio State is a comfortable four-point favorite over No.7-seeded VCU, who was upset as a No.5 seed in last year’s tournament.

Below are the Las Vegas point spreads and over/unders for Thursday’s second round games, as well as picks against the spread for each contest.

No.3 Notre Dame (-12) vs. No.14 Northeastern, 141

Prediction ATS: Notre Dame

No.3 Iowa State (-14) vs. No.14 UAB, 144.5

Prediction ATS: Iowa State

No.3 Baylor (-9) vs. No.14 Georgia State, 127.5

Prediction ATS: Baylor

No.2 Arizona (-23.5) vs. No.15 Texas Southern, 134

Prediction ATS: Arizona

No.6 Butler (+1.5) vs. No.11 Texas, 124

Prediction ATS: Texas

No.6 SMU (-4) vs. No.11 UCLA, 133

Prediction ATS: SMU

No.6 Xavier (-3) vs. No.11 Ole Miss, 145

Prediction ATS: Xavier

No.7 VCU (+4) vs. No.10 Ohio State, 137

Prediction ATS: Ohio State

No.1 Villanova (-23) vs. No.16 Lafayette, 145

Prediction ATS: Lafayette

No.8 Cincinnati (PK) vs. No.9 Purdue, 117.5

Prediction ATS: Purdue

No.4 North Carolina (-10.5) vs. No.13 Harvard, 133

Prediction ATS: Harvard

No.5 Utah (-6.5) vs. No.12 Stephen F. Austin, 131

Prediction ATS: Stephen F. Austin

No.8 N.C. State (-2) vs. No.9 LSU, 139.5

Prediction ATS: N.C. State

No.1 Kentucky (-34.5) vs. No.16 Hampton, 134.5

Prediction ATS: Hampton

No.5 Arkansas (-7.5) vs. No.12 Wofford, 137

Prediction ATS: Arkansas

No.4 Georgetown (-8) vs. No.13 Eastern Washington, 146.5

Prediction ATS: Eastern Washington
« Last Edit: March 21, 2015, 07:01:27 AM by Heisenberg »

VegasWarrior77

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Re: Thursday Tourney Games, 3-13 Against The Spread
« Reply #1 on: March 20, 2015, 11:43:34 AM »
I think most bettors are licking their wounds because they lost money.

Theory is one thing but reality is usually different.  Many games are not "balanced" with equal amount of money bet on both teams.  This is especially true in the NFL.  Generally speaking, the sports books are always rooting against the popular teams (Cowboys, Patriots, Broncos, Packers, Seahawks) because the general public has bet much more money on the favorites straight up and for parlays.  If no one won or lost the casinos wouldn't waste their time providing the opportunity to wager.  Also, the casinos are taking the 10% vigorish (juice) from the losing bettors.

Listening to Las Vegas sports talk yesterday afternoon... the books started off strong because so many casual bettors put their money on the favorites - both straight up and on parlays.  All the upsets kill most parlay cards so the books absolutely LOVE March Madness!  Professional bettors, on the other hand, bet mostly underdogs (and don't bet parlays) so they make money.

Briefly, this is how Las Vegas sports betting works:  the "squares" (amateur bettors) ultimately lose money and the "sharps" (pro bettors) make money in the long run.  The sports books take their 2%-5% win over the course of the year - mostly from the amateur bettors.  Squares bet favorites and the overs and the Sharps bet the opposite.
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe." Albert Einstein

bradley center bat

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Re: Thursday Tourney Games, 3-13 Against The Spread
« Reply #2 on: March 20, 2015, 12:08:52 PM »
Thanks for posting. Point spreads matter, seeds don't. Enjoy Fox Sports Live coverage from a casino in Las Vegas.

Tugg Speedman

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Re: Thursday Tourney Games, 3-13 Against The Spread
« Reply #3 on: March 21, 2015, 07:00:43 AM »
Run of favorites can't slow Vegas

http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/12529484/las-vegas-roll-run-favorites-ncaa-round-64


Favorites closed out the round of 64 in the NCAA tournament on a run, but Thursday's slew of upset-minded underdogs still had Las Vegas sportsbooks smiling heading into the weekend.



Kentucky and Karl-Anthony Towns, left, cruised past Hampton but did not cover the 35-point spread, the largest in an NCAA tournament game since Duke was a 47-point favorite over Florida A&M in the first round of the 1999 tournament.



The favored team in Las Vegas won 25 of the last 26 games in the round of 64, including 15 of 16 on Friday. The run began Thursday with favored Xavier's win over Ole Miss and kept going until underdog Dayton grinded past Providence in Friday's nightcap.

Favorites were winning, but they weren't always covering the spread. Underdogs went 8-8 against the spread Friday and were 20-12 against the spread over the first two full days of the tournament.

Thursday was huge. One sportsbook said Thursday was its biggest single-day win in memory.

"Epic day, absolutely," Jay Rood, vice president of MGM race and sports, said of Thursday. "Tough day for the players coupled with the fact the books did well Wednesday, too."

"Yesterday was amazing," Dave Pemberton, director of specialty games for Caesars Entertainment, added Friday night.

Including the First Four games Tuesday and Wednesday, underdogs covered the spread in the first 10 games of the tournament. Favorites went 4-12 against the spread Thursday. No. 14 seeds Georgia State and UAB pulled off upsets as double-digit underdogs, damaging brackets and destroying money-line parlays everywhere.


One Perfect Bracket

Out of more than 11.57 million brackets entered in ESPN's Tournament Challenge, one bracket emerged from the round of 64 with a perfect 32-0 record.

There were six perfect brackets heading into the final game Friday night. However, Dayton's upset of Providence reduced the field to one.



"We didn't sweep the board [Thursday] but we were pretty close," Jason Simbal of CG Technology's sportsbook said.

The betting public isn't at its most sophisticated in March, when spring break collides with the NCAA tournament in Las Vegas. The public normally fancies the favorites and parlays at long odds. When underdogs go on runs, like they did Thursday, the books win big.

Even No. 16 seed Hampton, the largest NCAA tournament underdog in 16 years, had believers in Las Vegas. William Hill accepted 260 money-line bets on Hampton upsetting No. 1 Kentucky at 150-1 odds. That money will be staying in Vegas.

Kentucky cruised to a 79-56 victory but did not cover the 35-point spread. The line was the largest in an NCAA tournament game since Duke was a 47-point favorite over Florida A&M in the first round of the 1999 tournament.

The majority of money-line bets on Hampton were for $5 or less. The largest was a $314 bet that would have paid $47,100. In total, $2,240 was risked on Hampton beating Kentucky, according to William Hill. Eight people bet on Kentucky on the money line, laying monster odds of minus-50,000 (1-500). The largest money-line bet on the Wildcats was $600 and paid $1.20
« Last Edit: March 21, 2015, 07:04:46 AM by Heisenberg »

Eye

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Re: Betting On Tourney Games
« Reply #4 on: March 21, 2015, 12:34:46 PM »
Vegas is right on the money here. Window almost always rooting for dogs and unders.
GO WARRIORS!

 

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