Predicting the 2012 Maui Bracket

[Benny B]

The Maui bracket won't be released until the first week of August, but in looking at the past six years' bracket, there seems to be somewhat of a pattern:

1) The "best" team in the field has typically been placed at the top of the bracket (first game on Monday), except for the past two years when they've played in the 2nd game.
2) The second-best team has played the third game in four of the past six years.
3) The third-best team has played the late-night (last) game in four of the past five years.
4) Chaminade has been matched up against #1 in the first game through 2009, but they played the second game in 2010, and the third game in 2011.
5) Only twice in six years has a west coast team not been placed in the lower half of the bracket.
6) The late-night game is typically the best match-up (most evenly matched, well-known teams) of the first day.

My Bracket Prediction: (tip times estimated)
Game 1: Butler vs. Chaminade (2:00p CT)
Game 2: UNC vs. Mississippi State (4:30p CT)
Game 3: Marquette vs. USC (8:30p CT)
Game 4: Texas vs. Illinois (11:00p CT)

Explanation:
* UNC will be perceived as the best team in the field.  They'll play in Game 2.
* Chaminade will play in the first game again this year (no way ESPN puts them in the late-night game)
* Texas will be the second-best team but will be a better ratings draw for the late-night game.
* MU will be the third-best team but will move up to the 3rd game.
* USC will be matched with MU so as to have a 6:30/7:00pm tip on the west coast.
* Butler vs. Chaminade is too sexy a match-up to ignore (Cinderella vs. Cinderella)
* Illinois is a better ratings match-up in the late game for TX than Miss St.

If the above holds, MU will play at roughly the same time (8:30-9:00p CT) all three nights as long as they keep winning.

[Nukem2]

UNC / Chaminade
Butler / Miss St
MU / Illinois
Texas / USC

[THEultimateWARRIOR]

MU vs TEXAS would be sweet

[bilsu]

UNC/Chaminade 1 vs 8
Texas/Illinois 2 vs 7
Miss St./USC 3 vs 6
MU/Butler 4/5

[PGsHeroes32]

UNC / Chaminade
Butler / Miss St
MU / Illinois
Texas / USC

I flat ass gurantee you UNC has some sort of agreement that they don't play Chaminade in the 1st game.

[PGsHeroes32]

UNC/Chaminade 1 vs 8
Texas/Illinois 2 vs 7
Miss St./USC 3 vs 6
MU/Butler 4/5

LOL. You think Miss State is going to be rated higher than MU? They lost their whole damn team AND missed the tourney.

[Benny B]

UNC / Chaminade
Butler / Miss St
MU / Illinois
Texas / USC

This would represent the best-case scenario for Marquette... the potential to play Illinois, Texas & UNC would do wonders for MU's RPI & SOS, regardless of the results (assuming, of course, you have to win two of those to get the third).

[Benny B]

UNC/Chaminade 1 vs 8
Texas/Illinois 2 vs 7
Miss St./USC 3 vs 6
MU/Butler 4/5

Bear in mind that "1" doesn't necessarily play "8," ("2" vs. "7", etc.)... the Maui Invite is all about maximizing TV ratings... not about fair and even seeding.

[bilsu]

Bear in mind that "1" doesn't necessarily play "8," ("2" vs. "7", etc.)... the Maui Invite is all about maximizing TV ratings... not about fair and even seeding.

The realty is that it is a weak field. What they need is the best four teams to win in the first round.

[PGsHeroes32]

The realty is that it is a weak field. What they need is the best four teams to win in the first round.

And Im still not seeing where you get Miss State as one of the best four teams that need to win. Texas, MU, Unc and Butler are all better forsure while Illinois and USC(expected to be much improved) are probably as well.

[77ncaachamps]

Wow. Chew may see his former school sooner than later!

[Benny B]

Last chance.... bracket is being announced at 11:00a CT this morning.

[onetime]

 Tex/Chaminade
NC/ Miss St
MU/ Ill
Butler/USC

[mstang917]

Looks like it's Butler and then UNC or MISS State

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/61669/bracket-reveal-maui-invitational

[BrewCity83]

Eamonn Brennon is picking Butler to win the Maui.  Probably because of their easy first round matchup.

[drewm88]

http://espn.go.com/photo/preview/!pdfs/120725/2012_Maui_Bracket.pdf

[LAZER]

Anyone know anything substantial about Butler?

[GGGG]

My son goes to Butler and knows the team fairly well.  They underperformed last year, but are going to be good.  This is one of those contrast in styles games that will be tough to watch.  And frankly it is going to be even tougher to watch with the kid off for Thanksgiving.  He still roots for MU, but he's going to use this opportunity to stick it to his dad a little bit.

Marquette *should* win it though. 

[Benny B]

Ugh... the only thing I was really hoping for was not drawing the 10:30a game on Monday.  Spec - freakin' - tacular.

[bilsu]

My son goes to Butler and knows the team fairly well.  They underperformed last year, but are going to be good.  This is one of those contrast in styles games that will be tough to watch.  And frankly it is going to be even tougher to watch with the kid off for Thanksgiving.  He still roots for MU, but he's going to use this opportunity to stick it to his dad a little bit.

Marquette *should* win it though. 

I am not so sure MU should win this game. Butler has Clark, who sat out last year, who is a great shooter that Buzz really wanted. I am not sure how ready Otule and Anderson will be for these early games. To me the game is a toss up. Lose and we should win the consolation bracket. Win and we play North Carolina. Either way I predict we go 2-1.

[MattyWarrior]

As usual, nobody at espn picks MU to even be relevant.

[BrewCity83]

Ugh... the only thing I was really hoping for was not drawing the 10:30a game on Monday.  Spec - freakin' - tacular.

We better win that first game...or else we'll be trying to weasel out of work early on Tuesday and Wednesday, too.

[Benny B]

We better win that first game...or else we'll be trying to weasel out of work early on Tuesday and Wednesday, too.

If I hadn't already taken Tues/Wed off, I probably wouldn't if they ended up losing to Butler.  Consolation games make for good background noise at work.

[GGGG]

If I hadn't already taken Tues/Wed off, I probably wouldn't if they ended up losing to Butler.  Consolation games make for good background noise at work.

+1.  Consolation brackets aren't vacation-worthy.

[muguru]

+1.  Consolation brackets aren't vacation-worthy.

ANY MU game is vacation worthy. It's about priorities I suppose.