[Cracked Sidewalks] S-Curve: March 11 Update

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

S-Curve: March 11 Update

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (Alan Bykowski)

Body of work. That's what was stressed by Jeff Hathaway, chair of the NCAA Selection Committee, yesterday. This is an interesting bracket. The top eight spots are really set in stone, with the only question being who gets the last 1-seed. I currently have Missouri there, but could see it going to Kansas or the Big 10 Champ as well. My guess is that the committee sticks with Missouri and just ignores the result of the Big 10 title game. They've done it before. Marquette is still on the 3-line and looks safe. Only Florida State is in position to jump up there, and with Michigan still as a buffer between MU and the 4-line, they should stick. Again, it seems that more often than not, the Sunday games don't really make much difference, so I think FSU stays as a 4 and UNC stays as a 1 regardless of the result of that game.

The biggest game today is without a doubt St. Bonaventure/Xavier. All of the other teams playing today are safely in and likely have their seeds set. However, the Bonnies are definitely on the outside looking in. If they win, they will steal a bid. Which brings us back to body of work. Looking at the cut-line, there are a number of teams that are hovering there. A case could be made that the last few spots could go to NC State, Miami, Drexel, Mississippi State, Mississippi, Seton Hall, South Florida, Marshall, or Washington. Of the at-large teams, I would give a 99% confidence rating to teams 1-28, which includes everyone through Connecticut. The next three teams, Colorado State, West Virginia, and Texas, I would place at around 80%. But past that, it's almost impossible to say. Virginia, NC State, and Miami all have similar resumes. The conundrum is that Virginia arguably has a better resume than NC State, who has a better resume than Miami, who has a better resume than Virginia. At the moment, I put all three in simply because I couldn't separate them. I included both Big East bubble teams, and at the last moment added Marshall. The Herd's pair of top-20 wins over Southern Miss in the past week, four overall top-50 wins, and bad losses that really aren't that bad got them in the field over BYU and Mississippi State. But that could change with a gust of wind.





http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2012/03/s-curve-march-11-update.html

[bamamarquettefan]

I see Palm agreed with you in having Lville and Marquette both as No, 3 seeds.

Selfishly I love in nashville vs. davidson and st.mary's/southern miss.  I believe those games are all winnable, with the only negative being potentially paying two southern schools in a southern venue.

[bamamarquettefan]

Great stuff, and thanks for the heads up on Marshall.  Wow, completely missed them even being in the picture.  I know you have them as just possibly sneaking in as the last team, but I had not even been watching them and had missed those wins.

The have no NBA-level players, but looking at Value Add they have a big man in 6-8 Dennis Tinnon, who is a top 200 player, and two good ball handlers in my top 500 players in senior point guard Damier Pitts and 6-4 Shaquille Johnson.  They have moved from 89th to 69th in Pomeroy down the stretch, so not a great team, but a hot team with senior point guard play - not a terrible combo.

The one I'd be curious about is Miami over Brigham Young.  I had assumed BYU was easily in and when Durand Scott, Miami's best player, was suspended I assumed that was the final nail in the coffin for them.  However, I guess Scott was just a one game.  Any other thoughts on those two?

I'll try repasting my table below of all your seeds plus the other teams still possibly in the mix.
   Team (SH=short-handed)   Conf   Season   Talent top 3   Exp. Guards   Hot or Inj   Total   Off Reb
9   Alabama (SH)   SEC   15   5   4   2   26   33.6
   Arizona   P12   12   5   6   5   28   31.2
3   Baylor   B12   17   9   8   3   37   37.3
13   Belmont   ASun   16   4   10   8   38   34.5
   Brigham Young   WCC   12   3   5   2   22   30.5
10   California   P12   16   8   5   4   33   32.2
6   Cincinnati   BE   15   5   7   10   37   36.1
12   Colorado   P12   9   5   9   5   28   29.6
11   Colorado St.   MWC   10   4   6   8   28   29.1
10   Connecticut   BE   14   10   2   6   32   37.5
7   Creighton   MVC   14   6   10   3   33   31.6
14   Davidson   SC   11   4   6   5   26   35
   Dayton   A10   12   6   7   7   32   36.2
16   Detroit   Horz   6   6   5   9   26   35.1
   Drexel   CAA   13   4   5   6   28   33.8
2   Duke   ACC   17   10   4   7   38   35
6   Florida (SH)   SEC   16   10   8   2   36   34.6
4   Florida St.   ACC   15   9   10   7   41   36
4   Georgetown   BE   17   9   8   7   41   35.5
8   Gonzaga   WCC   15   7   5   4   31   34.2
9   Harvard   Ivy   13   4   10   3   30   31
4   Indiana (SH)   B10   18   8   10   4   40   35.3
   Iona   MAAC   12   6   8   6   32   32.6
8   Iowa St. (SH)   B12   15   6   6   6   33   32.3
2   Kansas   B12   19   11   10   5   45   34.4
8   Kansas St.   B12   16   5   4   5   30   40.6
1   Kentucky   SEC   20   15   1   8   44   38.2
16   Lamar   Slnd   7   4   9   5   25   37.5
15   Lehigh   Pat   9   4   6   6   25   31.2
12   Long Beach St.   BW   14   5   9   5   33   33.2
15   Long Island   NEC   3   5   7   5   20   34.8
   Louisiana St. (SH)   SEC   8   4   6   2   20   34.4
3   Louisville   BE   15   7   7   8   37   36.3
15   Loyola MD   MAAC   5   4   3   5   17   38.8
3   Marquette   BE   16   8   7   7   38   34.6
13   Marshall   CUSA   10   3   7   8   28   32.1
5   Memphis (SH)   CUSA   17   8   4   6   35   30.6
13   Miami FL   ACC   14   6   7   9   36   32.3
3   Michigan   B10   16   7   6   10   39   27.9
2   Michigan St.   B10   19   10   9   6   44   37.7
   Mississippi   SEC   9   3   3   8   23   36.6
   Mississippi St.   SEC   9   11   9   2   31   32.5
16   Mississippi Valley St.   SWAC   1   1   9   4   15   33.3
1   Missouri   B12   18   8   6   4   36   31
14   Montana   BSky   9   4   7   7   27   28.1
5   Murray St.   OVC   13   6   7   5   31   34.9
15   NC Asheville   BSth   5   4   10   7   26   32.8
   Nevada   WAC   8   5   4   5   22   35
7   Nevada Las Vegas   MWC   15   8   10   2   35   33.5
6   New Mexico   MWC   17   6   5   9   37   34.5
13   New Mexico St.   WAC   11   4   8   8   31   40.4
16   Norfolk St.   MEAC   2   3   7   3   15   32.7
1   North Carolina (SH)   ACC   19   15   5   7   46   40.8
13   North Carolina St.   ACC   13   9   8   8   38   36.6
   Northwestern (SH)   B10   12   8   4   3   27   25.8
5   Notre Dame   BE   14   6   4   10   34   29.9
14   Ohio   MAC   10   4   6   7   27   35
2   Ohio St.   B10   19   10   2   5   36   35.7
   Oregon   P12   11   4   6   9   30   33.2
9   Purdue   B10   16   9   9   7   41   31.9
   Saint Joseph's   A10   11   8   3   6   28   30.6
7   San Diego St.   MWC   12   4   4   5   25   31
13   Seton Hall   BE   13   5   6   4   28   32.6
14   South Dakota St.   Sum   12   1   7   5   25   30.6
12   South Florida (SH)   BE   11   3   4   8   26   34.1
10   Southern Mississippi   CUSA   11   3   5   4   23   35.9
10   St. Louis   A10   17   5   7   7   36   32
6   St. Mary's (SH)   WCC   13   5   6   1   25   36
1   Syracuse   BE   18   13   7   5   43   36.1
7   Temple   A10   14   5   9   8   36   31.4
   Tennessee (SH)   SEC   12   3   4   9   28   33.3
11   Texas   B12   15   8   4   5   32   37.9
5   Vanderbilt   SEC   16   12   9   7   44   32.9
16   Vermont   AE   5   3   4   7   19   34.6
11   Virginia (SH)   ACC   16   5   7   2   30   28.1
12   Virginia Commonwealth   CAA   13   6   4   6   29   33.9
   Washington   P12   11   11   4   7   33   38.3
11   West Virginia (SH)   BE   13   6   3   2   24   40.6
16   Western Kentucky   SB   3   1   7   7   18   33.4
8   Wichita St.   MVC   18   5   10   7   40   33.4
4   Wisconsin   B10   18   7   7   5   37   30.4
9   Xavier   A10   12   5   9   4   30   32.3

[brewcity77]

Really, it came down to substance. BYU's entire resume is their win over Gonzaga, which is offset a bit by also losing twice to the Zags. Miami's win over FSU, combined with their win over Duke, is simply more compelling. And in a year where so many teams with mediocre resumes are vying for the last few spots, it's important to note that not only does Miami only have one bad loss, but it's a loss to RPI-105 Maryland. BYU has 2 losses worse than that one. Basically, Miami gets the "bad, but not that bad" category of loss.

The other reason I put Miami in was because of Virginia and NC State. It was really hard to separate the ACC teams, so I figured it was easier to put them all in. And looking at the competition for that last spot, with some of the bad losses teams like Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Washington, Iona, and Drexel have, it made the Hurricanes even more compelling. That said, if they were left out, I wouldn't be shocked or upset. I see it as being 14 teams for the last 6 spots, and just about any combination of those teams wouldn't really bug me much.

[GO_MU02]

Lunardi has an updated S curve up today.  It's on insider though.  Anyone have access to post?

[whodem]

Lunardi has an updated S curve up today.  It's on insider though.  Anyone have access to post?

He has Marquette 10th.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I would be SHOCKED if Miss. State missed the tourney.

[brewcity77]

I would be SHOCKED if Miss. State missed the tourney.

RPI is down to 74, the lowest at-large ever was 75. They have 2 top-50 wins, but 4 sub-100 losses. They've lost 6/8 and their body of work simply doesn't quite match up to a Marshall, Miami, or USF. USF especially when you factor in injuries. That said, if they were in, I'd understand, simply because teams are so hard to separate right now.

I really see 14 teams for 6 spots. Pretty much throw the names in a hat and pull 6 out and you could probably make an honest case for those being the right picks.

[bilsu]

RPI is down to 74, the lowest at-large ever was 75. They have 2 top-50 wins, but 4 sub-100 losses. They've lost 6/8 and their body of work simply doesn't quite match up to a Marshall, Miami, or USF. USF especially when you factor in injuries. That said, if they were in, I'd understand, simply because teams are so hard to separate right now.

I really see 14 teams for 6 spots. Pretty much throw the names in a hat and pull 6 out and you could probably make an honest case for those being the right picks.

I do not follow Mississipi State, but I thought they recently suspended a player that Buzz tried to recruit. I think that would be held against them also.