Pomeroy projects MU with double bye - 2nd place if they pull minor upset at WVU

[bamamarquettefan]

Pomeroy has Marquette getting double-bye – finishing 2nd if they win at WVU February 24th
Interesting that Pomeroy’s projections now have Marquette projected to finish in a four-way tie for 2nd place in the Big East behind only Syracuse, falling the 4th place for seeding with a 2-2 mark in the “mini-conference” of the four tied teams:
Syracuse 16-2
Seton Hall 12-4 (2-1 in miniconference then head-to-head over West Virginia)
West Virginia 12-4 (2-1)
Marquette 12-4 (2-2)
Georgetown 12-4 (1-3)
UConn 10-6 (head-to-head over Cincy)
Cincy 10-6

However, that is with Marquette losing a 71-74 game in West Virginia February 24.  If MU pulled a minor upset in that game, that would give MU a 2nd place finish with a 3-1 mini-conference record.

As I’ve mentioned, MU really struggles playing more than one game in a row, so the double bye could be particularly important.    Having to win 3 straight seems very difficult, but certainly 4 straight nights would be quite a break for MU.

[muguru]

2nd is exactly where this team should finish in the Big East IF they play to their talent level the rest of the year. Next 9 all very winnable before the roady at UCONN.

[DCWarriors04]

key word in all of this...IF...the talent is there, the only thing holding them back is themselves.

[MU82]

What happens if we only lose 71-73 at West Virginia?

I mean, it would be a shame if Pomeroy is so wrong with his forecast.

[brewcity77]

12 + 4 ≠ 18
10 + 6 ≠ 18

Some funny maths going on there, bama

Regardless...one thing about Pomeroy that I'm not particularly fond of is that his game result projections don't equal his season result projections. Here's a comparison of his game-by-game projected wins and losses and his season-long projected wins and losses for the league:

Code: [Select]

          Game W Game L Pro W Pro L
Syracuse 18 0 16 2
Seton Hall 14 4 12 6
West Virginia 15 3 12 6
Marquette 14 4 12 6
Georgetown 13 5 12 6
Connecticut 12 6 10 8
Cincinnati 11 7 10 8
Notre Dame 7 11 9 9
Louisville 9 9 8 10
South Florida 7 11 7 11
Rutgers        6 12 7 11
Villanova 5 13 6 12
St. John's 3 15 6 12
Pittsburgh 4 14 5 13
Providence 3 15 5 13
DePaul        3 15 5 13

Total        144 144 142 146

That's why using his projections at the bottom is near useless. He skews everyone toward the middle. South Florida is the only team for whom the game projections and season projections matches up. Everyone else is pushed toward the middle by a margin of 1-3 games. And the real problem is that it doesn't total up right. According to those season projections, Big East teams are going to lose more games (146) the rest of the year than they are going to play (144).

With that being the case, you cannot use his projections at the bottom for the season results (4 teams at 12-6) and also use his game results to project which team is going to win the 12-6 group. The game-by-game results are independent of the season projection at the bottom.

I think we're much better off looking at the game-by-game projections for something like this, which has Marquette finishing as a clear third:

Syracuse 18-0
West Virginia 15-3
Marquette 14-4 (MU wins head-to-head tiebreaker)
Seton Hall 14-4
Georgetown 13-5
Connecticut 12-6
Cincinnati 11-7
Louisville 9-9
Notre Dame 7-11 (ND wins head-to-head tiebreaker)
South Florida 7-11
Rutgers 6-12
Villanova 5-13
Pittsburgh 4-14
St. John's 3-15 (SJU wins group w/ 2-1 record and win over Cincy)
DePaul 3-15 (2-1 group record, best win Pitt)
Providence 3-15 (0-2 group record)

[Eye]

Can't resist Brew.

3 and 13 does not equal 18.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Can't resist Brew.

3 and 13 does not equal 16.

Yes it does. It doesn't equal 18 though.

[UticaBusBarn]

To this uninitiated statistician, the Warriors could go 15-3 as easily as they could go 11-7. Why?

There are three variables that come into play (pun intended). First variable is Coach Williams has had to make a mid-course team/rotation adjustment when Otule became unable to play.

Second, the past two seasons have shown that it takes part of the Big East season for Coach Williams to settle his team into their rotation/roles/playing times.

Third, the team does not do well in back-to-back, short turn-around, games; and, despite the last two games, has had a tendency to lose focus at the end of each half. It seems as though the team "tires" either mentally, physically, or both.

It strikes this fan, that Coach Williams has more than anything, made the adjustment necessary for the Otule loose, AND has the Warriors set as far as their rotation and roles. The two are obviously related, and just as obviously, Coach Williams has this worked out earlier than in the BE season than in the previous years.

So, of two of the variables, it would seem, that they are under control. The Warriors are jelling and seem to be on the up-tick. The last variable may well determine the season (though not the tournament).

What causes this third variable to exist? Your guess is good as any. It appears that either Coach Williams is so smart and thorough, that it takes him longer to decide what to do to get the team ready for the day after game. (This, as opposed to a less intelligent, but more instinctive coach, who is often best "on the fly.")

The other possible reason, as seen from here, is over-practice and over-intensity. Hard work and good luck go hand-in-hand. But, it has to be "smart" hard work. Sometimes the productive thing a team can do is to take a day off.

In the end, Pomeroy and 'bamaguy might very well be right. Huge up-side to this talented team and its maturing coach indicate a rather successful season. But, the real success for this team will be the NCAA tournament.

[Henry Sugar]

It's always better to look at the Monte Carlo distributions.

Current forecasts are that MU has:
~25% chance of finishing with less than 11 wins
~75% chance of finishing with 11 wins or more
~55% chance of finishing with 12 wins or more
~30% chance of finishing with 13 wins
~12% chance of finishing with 14 wins or more

Most likely scenario is 11-12 wins, but that's only 47%.  Between 10-13 wins is 80%.

[MU82]

Third, the team does not do well in back-to-back, short turn-around, games ...

I was fairly pleased with how well they did in a short turn-around game last March against Syracuse!

[LAZER]

Realtimerpi has us going 12-6 with these losses below

 02-04   at  Notre Dame   11-6 (3-1) 100  73-74 L - Scouting   
  02-18   at  Connecticut   13-3 (3-2) 6  67-74 L - Scouting   
  02-24   at  West Virginia   12-5 (3-2) 17  70-75 L - Scouting   
  02-29   at  Cincinnati   13-4 (3-1) 111  71-75 L - Scouting   

[esotericmindguy]

Is this the site that claims wisconsin is the 3rd best team in the nation? Sorry but kenny needs to adjust some things.

[Golden Avalanche]

2nd is exactly where this team should finish in the Big East IF they play to their talent level the rest of the year. Next 9 all very winnable before the roady at UCONN.

I still see MU as the second or third best team in this conference in terms of talent.

[dwaderoy2004]

Pomeroy has Marquette getting double-bye – finishing 2nd if they win at WVU February 24th
Interesting that Pomeroy’s projections now have Marquette projected to finish in a four-way tie for 2nd place in the Big East behind only Syracuse, falling the 4th place for seeding with a 2-2 mark in the “mini-conference” of the four tied teams:
Syracuse 16-2
Seton Hall 12-4 (2-1 in miniconference then head-to-head over West Virginia)
West Virginia 12-4 (2-1)
Marquette 12-4 (2-2)
Georgetown 12-4 (1-3)
UConn 10-6 (head-to-head over Cincy)
Cincy 10-6

However, that is with Marquette losing a 71-74 game in West Virginia February 24.  If MU pulled a minor upset in that game, that would give MU a 2nd place finish with a 3-1 mini-conference record.

If MU beat West Virginia and all other results stayed the same, MU would be 13-5 and there would be no mini-conference for them to have to win.  They would finish 2nd outright in that scenario.

[brewcity77]

Can't resist Brew.

3 and 13 does not equal 18.

LOL...fixed it. That's what I get for trying to do maths after busting my back shoveling

[bamamarquettefan]

Regardless...one thing about Pomeroy that I'm not particularly fond of is that his game result projections don't equal his season result projections.

When my answer to this statement passed five paragraphs, I decided I had to work it into a Cracked Sidewalks post instead :-)

[brewcity77]

When my answer to this statement passed five paragraphs, I decided I had to work it into a Cracked Sidewalks post instead :-)

Hahahahahahaaaaaa.....

My DG article yesterday started out as a post until I realized "Maybe I should just write this."