Vote: Which MU Team Is Better, This Year or Last Year?

[Tugg Speedman]

I voted this year ... let me explain.

I know many have looked at the BE record and concluded we are regressing.  But that does not take into account our SoS and the strength of our conference.  See below.

            Sagarin                 KenPom
           Score  Rank          Score Rank       BE Record
2011     84.99   31             .8881   34              9-9
2010     84.47   36             .9107   33            11-7
2009     86.79   20             .9291   19            12-6
2008     87.69   17             .9615   11            11-7
2007     83.41   44             .9235   38            10-6

KenPom and Sagarin are not comparable to each other but you can compare each to their own prior years.  

Sagarin says we are slightly better than last year.
KenPom says we are slightly worse than last year.

Combined it's a photo finish between the year and next week's performance will determine the winner.

With all the whining and complaining about the play this year, how surprised are you that statistically we are about the same as last year?  Stated differently ... this team has not regressed from last year.  What happened was the conference got a lot tougher.

As I have written in numerous posts in the last few weeks, we are on course to play the hardest schedule in MU history and lead the nation this year in playing 16 top 25 teams (Sagarin).

As we wait for our tourney seeding, Kudos to Buzz for the way he has handled this team for the last three years.

[flash]

I voted last years team because they had Lazar Hayward.  This year's team lacks a true go to guy in clutch situations.  I think the point guard play last year was overall superior to this years team.  Not once last year did we have a problem breaking a press.  Also our 3 point shooting last year was top 5 in the nation.  It's really close, but I would take last years team. 

[CTWarrior]

Hayward >> Crowder
Acker/Cubillan/2010 Buycks >> Cadougan/2011 Buycks
2010 Butler < 2011 Butler
2010 DJO = 2011 DJO
Gaping Hole at 5 << Otule/Gardner
2010 Bench < 2011 Bench
2010 Record > 2011 Record

Close, but results are results and I think 2010 just a little bit better.

[lab_warrior]

Crazy enough, I voted this year--basically because we're capable of being better, but sometimes have ruts where we don't play well.  If the vote was which team was more consistent, then last year would win.  So, reasons why I went with this years team:
First, we're deeper.  Have a lot of different player combos to throw out there at teams.
Second, we have 3-4 legit post presences (Gardner, Otule, Crowder, and JMFB at times), instead of 1 (Lazar).  
Third, we have senior Fulce & Buycks and  Soph. EWill vs. junior Fulce & Buycks and freshman EWill
Fourth, we have players that are starting to flip the switch/get "it":  Cadougan, Gardner, Blue and more recently Jamail Jones.  I'd even throw EWill in this category.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Another...you are using the data incorrectly.  Each year's ranking is determined by the play of that team in THAT year.  They are not meant to be compared in other years.  Don't believe me...email Ken Pom himself.


Your logic would state that a team ranked 10th this year is better than a team ranked 14th last year, but that isn't true.  The team ranked 10th this year is ranked accordingly based against all other teams playing THIS year.  The 14th ranked team last year could be much better than 10th ranked team this year because the rankings are isolated onto those years, not across years.

You're simply using the data incorrectly. 

[ErickJD08]

I think we are more talented this year.  But basketball is not all about talent.  It's about heart and passion and HOLY BALLS Hayward brought a crapload.  That guy made me want to strap on the uni and play with him.  I imagine his teammates rallied around him.

[DCWarriors04]

2011 team is more talented than the 2010 team, but the Senior Leadership on the 2010 team was a lot better than this team.

[oldwarrior81]

when the bids were announced last year Sagarin had MU at 24 and Pomeroy listed them at 27.
Both seven spots ahead of where they show up this season.

[96warrior]

I voted last years team because they had Lazar Hayward.  This year's team lacks a true go to guy in clutch situations.  I think the point guard play last year was overall superior to this years team.  Not once last year did we have a problem breaking a press.  Also our 3 point shooting last year was top 5 in the nation.  It's really close, but I would take last years team. 

Totally agree with all who say Lazar was the difference last year. And you can't underestimate the impact Cooby and Acker had as well. I disagree that we don't have a true go-to-guy this year (JFB) but he's on his own in the big games. Hayward had Butler, Cooby and Acker backing him up, and DJO was a major factor, too.

JFB is clutch, but he's the quiet leader - doesn't make a lot of fuss, just puts his nose to the grindstone and gets it done - and we are missing the guy who has his heart on his sleeve as Hayward did.

Would love to see the chemistry develop, too. I've seen flashes of it in our big games this year but not consistently. The Three Amigos knew each other inside and out on the court and knew exactly how to play together. Last year Cooby and Acker knew exactly what to do on the court together (though many argued they should never be on the court at the same time - they got it done). I was hoping it was going to be DJO and Butler this year but DJO was really streaky - he was either really on or virtually a non-factor. Next year I hope it's DJO-Crowder and Cadougan-Otule/Gardner.

[PGsHeroes32]

if you could clone the players that are on both teams. Obviously give Jimmy on the 2011 team his 2011 talent and his 2010 on 2010(really isnt much of a difference)


but 2010 would absolutly destroy 2011 in a game. I mean punish. The way we give up 3s this year Acker, Cooby, Zar and a much better outside shooting DJO would go nuts.

[Mumichfan06]

We lack a true leader on this years team. Last year had Lazar. I believe the lack of a true leader has led us to more close defeats than we should have had to endure during the season. Secondly, our 3 point shooting was amazing last year. The WVU was a good example of how effective 3's can be. WVU was actually in the game because of the trae.

[Niv Berkowitz]

Voted last year just on the basis of point guard play. That alone is the difference maker.

[Silkk the Shaka]

if you could clone the players that are on both teams. Obviously give Jimmy on the 2011 team his 2011 talent and his 2010 on 2010(really isnt much of a difference)


but 2010 would absolutly destroy 2011 in a game. I mean punish. The way we give up 3s this year Acker, Cooby, Zar and a much better outside shooting DJO would go nuts.

But last year's team couldn't defend the paint or score in the paint.  Last year's team lit it up from three and defended the three quite well.  They would light us up from three.

This year's team can defend the paint and attack it much better.  Gardner & Otule would have a field day against last year's team in the paint.  This year's team can't shoot the three nearly as well nor guard it as well.

Each team's strength is the other's weakness.

In the end we got nearly identical results with the difference being a much tougher schedule this year.

If they played 10 games I think each would win 5.

[6746jonesr]

I like both teams, and for the reasons stated in the above posts.  Frankly, I think what gives last years team the edge, is not whether Hayward was a better leader than Butler, or Acker is a better point guard than Cadougan.  I think the real difference is last years team had 3 seniors who had been in the program for 4 years, and this years team lacked that same level of D1 experience.  Junior college ball is different than D1 ball, and I believe that Jae's fall off in the past few weeks  had to do with the difference in terms of physicality between his season last year and this year.  I like the talent on this years team, probably better than last years team, and I certainly look forward to seeing what they will be able to do next year with another year of seasoning at the D1 level.  And while many posters want to explain this years trouble on defense to lousy defensive players, I don't think that is the case.  I think we had players who were often a step late in getting off a pick, or failing to pick up the open shooter.  Acker and Cubie were able to do things as seniors that they were unable to do as freshmen and sophomores.  The problems on defense were the result of bad coaching but inexperience, and let's hope that another year will lead to improved play as a defensive team.

[Mr. Nielsen]

Mo Acker, was a true leader at the point.

[Doris Burkes Thong]

Last year's team was a little better simply because of Hayward, but less talented. This year's team will have a better postseason IMO because I see them winning at least one game in the NCAA's. And depending on the draw they could possibly win 2 or 3 games. Both teams also had at least one big win in the BET(last year Nova, this year WVU) before getting blown out in the next game.

[DomJamesToTheBasket]

IMO this year's team had more talent and potential,  but underachieved and didn't execute well at all.

Last year's team maxed out their potential and overachieved by executing as well as I've ever seen at MU.  The ball movement was extraordinary and made this year's team look that much worse.

So my vote goes to last year.  It's unfortunate because I really thought we would be much better this year.

[Coleman]

Hayward >> Crowder
Acker/Cubillan/2010 Buycks >> Cadougan/2011 Buycks
2010 Butler < 2011 Butler
2010 DJO = 2011 DJO
Gaping Hole at 5 << Otule/Gardner
2010 Bench < 2011 Bench
2010 Record > 2011 Record

Close, but results are results and I think 2010 just a little bit better.

Agree, except I would amend...

2010 Butler = 2011 Butler, further weakening this year's team in comparison.

I also think that this year's team, regardless of talent, lacks the leadership that Lazar Hayward brought last year. Not a big knock on Jimmy, I love the guy, but Lazar was a very unique leader and was amazing at bridging the gap from the Crean era to Buzz's guys.

[Coleman]

That being said, I think next year's team will be better than this years, and maybe even better than 2010's. Probably not as good as 2009's though.


Heres my ranking for the last 6 NCAA tournament qualifying seasons, from best to worst

2009 (6 seed)
2008 (6 seed)
2007 (8 seed)
2006 (7 seed)
2010 (6 seed)
2011 ( ????? )

[brewcity77]

A lot of good points here. I would take last year's team because we were better at the point by far and what we lack this year is the go-to guy that was Hayward. Our post play is better now, but Lazar was a pretty darn good post, considering.

But more important than any of this is that with a seasoned Cadougan, a senior Crowder and DJO, the freshman to sophomore jump of Vander Blue, two even better big men in Otule and Gardner, and the infusion of Jamil Wilson, we should be better next year than in either of these two seasons. The future looks pretty bright.