MU is a 6 point underdog against Georgetown ...

[Tugg Speedman]

Sound about right or is GU getting to much love?

[brewcity77]

Sounds about right, if you're talking about a gambling perspective. Georgetown is one of the hottest teams in the country and are very well known, which will lead to more people betting on them. But if you're setting a line against Marquette, you probably don't want to go with more than 10 points because we've only lost one game by double-digits in the past two seasons. And based on the 6 points, if it were at the BC, it'd probably either be a pick 'em or we'd be a 1-2 point favorite.

But I'd never base my expectations of what will actually happen on a Vegas line. All the line is supposed to do is get people to bet evenly on both sides. It has nothing to do with actual game projections. You're better off with something like kenpom.com for that, though even that's a bit spotty. For the record, he has us losing 77-70.

[MarquetteDano]

But I'd never base my expectations of what will actually happen on a Vegas line. All the line is supposed to do is get people to bet evenly on both sides. It has nothing to do with actual game projections. You're better off with something like kenpom.com for that, though even that's a bit spotty. For the record, he has us losing 77-70.

I can't agree with the statement.  I usually agree with you Brew but not this time.  If Vegas wasn't as reliable as KenPom then people would simply look at KenPom and compare it to the Vegas line and in those cases where they disagreed,  bet the other way and make millions and millions of dollars.

But they don't.  Reason:  no one is better than Vegas at setting the line.

[karavotsos]

From KenPom's most recent blog post:

"I only invoke Vegas because it's the most accurate predictive system available. (The average error of the Vegas spread is about nine points, better than any computer rating.)"

[brewcity77]

I've never heard the notion that Vegas lines are designed to be predictive. They are designed to make money. If Vegas lines were supposed to be predictive, they would never move outside of injuries. But they do move based on betting trends. You won't see it much in college basketball because the spread comes out a day or two in advance, but on the whole, they are in the business of making money, not making predictions.