Should We Now Put Bucknell In The "Quality Win" Category?

[mu_hilltopper]

With that 11-7 record, with those wins, we are projected to have the 11th best RPI in the Big East.   Still think that's a lock?

http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/BE.html

[willie warrior]

I don't get why people keep saying that we don't have to beat any more good teams to get to 11.

We are 4-2 right now. We need 7 more wins to get to 11. We should have a good shot of beating USF, Seton Hall x2, Providence, St Johns, and Cincy for 6 wins. Then we need to pick up one W from either ND, UConn x2, Cuse, Nova, or Gtown to get to 11-7.

Either way you cut it, if we are at 11-7, we will have beaten St Johns, Cincy, and a ranked Big East opponent.

That's lock city baby!

I think we can pick up 2 wins against the "ranks", so I say we're looking at going 12-6 this season.

I do not agree that 11-7 and beating St. John's, Cincy and a ranked BEast opponemt is a lock-it will be bubble-close!
We already have beaten a ranked team-ND. I do believe that if we beat St. John's (no small feat), ND(already have) and two from ND, Syracuse, UConn (2 games), Villanova, and Georgetown we will then be a lock, providing we do not have a bad home loss.

[brewcity77]

Either way you cut it, if we are at 11-7, we will have beaten St Johns, Cincy, and a ranked Big East opponent.

That's lock city baby!

I don't buy it, Dickie V. We do have to beat good teams. But as my post shows, no quality road wins and no quality non-conference wins. Is 5-12 against the top 50 good enough? Without proving it away from the BC or against non-BEast opponents? It probably it, but it's hardly "lock city".

We'd be an interesting case. Assuming my projections for us are correct, this is what I'm guessing:

BEast locks: Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, Louisville, West Virginia, Connecticut

Bubble Teams

Marquette: 20-12 / 11-7 / RPI 49 / 5-12 v top 50 / 6-12 v top 100 / Non-con win over Bucknell (home)

Notre Dame: 21-10 / 10-8 / RPI 21 / 7-8 v top 50 / 11-9 v top 100 / Non-con wins over Wisconsin (neutral), Gonzaga (home)

Cincinnati: 24-9 / 10-8 / RPI 46 / 6-8 v top 50 / 9-9 v top 100 / Non-con win over Xavier (home)

Georgetown: 22-11 / 9-9 / RPI 10 / 7-10 v top 50 / 11-11 v top 100 / Non-con wins over Missouri (neutral), Utah State (home) / 2-0 v Marquette

St. John's: 18-14 / 9-9 / RPI 38 / 5-9 v top 50 / 7-11 v top 100 / Non-con win over Northwestern (home) / Road win over West Virginia

The numbers I use are using game predictions from kenpom.com and RPI predictions from RPIForecast.com (which has identical numbers for final conference and overall records). I am also assuming all the seeds prevail in the Big East tournament with two exceptions, MU/G'Town (because so many feel 11-7 makes us a lock) and ND/Cincy (toss of a coin for two bubble teams, went with Cincy). Here's what the BEast tourney results add to this:

Marquette loses to Georgetown
Notre Dame loses to Cincinnati
Cincinnati beats DePaul and Notre Dame, loses to Pittsburgh
Georgetown beats South Florida and Marquette, loses to Syracuse
St. John's beats Providence, loses to Connecticut

So I think looking at those numbers, I would move both Notre Dame and Georgetown to lock status. Notre Dame has a great record against the top 50 and top 100 as well as two good non-conference wins, one on a neutral court, and a stellar RPI of 21. Georgetown may only be 9-9 in the Big East, but their RPI is 10, while their top 50 and top 100 records is very respectable along with the non-con wins over Missouri and Utah State (both top 30 RPI).

That gives the Big East 8 teams that are in the tourney. Any more becomes an NCAA record. If they go to 9 teams, it's a dogfight between us and Cincy. They beat us in every major category except head-to-head and Big East record. Does our conference record trump their top 50 and top 100 records, along with them having 4 more wins overall? It's a toss-up. If they go to 10 teams, I'm guessing we would be a lock. St. John's, while boasting a good resume, is probably out based on conference record and simply not enough aggregate wins. They only get in if the committee takes 11.

But either way, I would hope that my past two posts have done a decent job of showing how 11-7 does not make us a lock. We are competing with the rest of the Big East for these bids. Notre Dame and Georgetown will almost certainly get in with top 25 RPI numbers, despite having lesser conference records. And Cincinnati will likely have a very good case for inclusion as well. It all comes down to Big East bids. Which is why we need 12 Big East wins to be a stone cold lock.

[MUfan12]

Why would West Va be a lock, again?

[Marquette84]

Why would West Va be a lock, again?

Seems easy enough to compare them using the same criteria:

Marquette: 20-12 / 11-7 / RPI 49 / 5-12 v top 50 / 6-12 v top 100 / Non-con win over Bucknell (home)

West Virginia: 20-10 / 11-7 / RPI 14 / 8-7 v top 50 / 11-10 v top 100 / Non-con wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue

An RPI of 14, better than .500 against the top 50, and two good non-conference wins seems to make them a lock.

[willie warrior]

All ofthis analysis is good stuff. It really proves one thing, having a very good RPI, say up to 25, is more important than beefing up your wins with 10 plus cupcakes every year.

[mu_hilltopper]

I wish there was a website that allowed you to change a team's schedule and see the RPI impact. 

I'd be curious to see the effects of:
* What if we played UWM at home, instead of getting the 1.6 road wins in their Cell?
* How about UWGB on the road instead with 1.6 wins?
* Replace Prairie View or South Dakota (RPI 300+) with some 150 teams.

[Marquette84]

All ofthis analysis is good stuff. It really proves one thing, having a very good RPI, say up to 25, is more important than beefing up your wins with 10 plus cupcakes every year.

Actually, you do need to beef your win total.  There's no real benefit to playing a tougher schedule unless you win a few of those games.

San Diego State is #3 in RPI right now.  We're #72.  Their toughest opponent was #32 UNLV.  We've already played an incredible 7 teams that are tougher than UNLV per the RPI. #7 Duke, #29 Wisconsin, #20 Vanderbilt, #13 WVU, #4 Pitt, #10 Notre Dame, #31 Louisville.

You would think our monster schedule would help us.  It doesn't.  Our SOS is ranked 63rd.  Theirs is ranked

And its not like SDS avoided cupcakes. Their non conference schedule included  UWGB, Cal Poly, San Diego Christian, Occidental, Utah, TCU, UCSB, IUPUI twice, Long Beach State, San Francisco.  Anyone not think we'd run the table on that group?

Even though we played what we thought is a tougher schedule, they have a stronger SOS. Thats because their cupcakes generally fall in the 100 to 200 range on the RPI, or they played D2 opponents which don't hurt your SOS. 

The objective is not to avoid cupcakes--its to pick the right ones. 

[SacWarrior]

So back on topic.

No.