[Rosiak's Blog] Schedule beginning to clarify

[ToddRosiakSays]

Schedule beginning to clarify

Written by: Todd Rosiak


Barring any unforeseen hangups, the Marquette Golden Eagles appear to have added a marquee home-and-home opponent to their schedule beginning this season: North Carolina State.

Assuming the Wolfpack is able to find an alternative date for an already-scheduled guarantee game, it would host MU in December, sometime prior to Christmas.

The game would add more juice to a Golden Eagles non-conference schedule that already includes Northern Iowa and Dayton in the Chicago Invitational in Hoffman Estates, Ill., Wisconsin at home and Tennessee in the SEC/Big East Invitational in Nashville.

MU has already dropped a previously scheduled guarantee game with Texas-Arlington because of coach Buzz Williams' close personal relationship with Mavs coach Scott Cross, so the flexibility to add NC State is there.

MU has spent much of the off-season trying to work out a marquee home-and-home series with various schools, but because of a late start hadn't been able to put anything together until recently.

Alabama, Boston College, Clemson, Gonzaga, Maryland, Minnesota, Stanford and Davidson (which would have been a neutral-site game at the Wooden Tradition) all discussed potential series with MU as well.

NC State tied for last in the Atlantic Coast Conference last season with a 4-12 record, and finished 15-16 overall. Coached by former Wolfpack great Sidney Lowe, NC State will be a young team next season and without its two leading scorers from 2007-'08, J.J. Hickson and Gavin Grant.

MU's three Big East mirror opponents, meanwhile, should be revealed sometime over the next week or so.



http://blogs.jsonline.com/muhoops/archive/2008/06/25/schedule-beginning-to-clarify.aspx

[77ncaachamps]

Looks like UTA's release of their schedule reflects the change:

http://utamavs.cstv.com/auto_pdf/p_hotos/s_chools/txar/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/2008-09schedule

And HOLY MOLY look at those teams they play! What an RPI downer playing UTA would have been!

Now, NC State...that's what I'M talking about! 

[bilsu]

I still remember the last time we played them. I do not think we played them since the 1975 NCAA championsip game. David Thompson and Al's two technicals.

[4everwarriors]

Nope, Tom Gugliotta and the Wolfpack kicked our collective asses at the BC. The '74 Championship Game you're referring to was played in Greensboro. The Warriors beat Kansas and NCST defeated UCLA in the semis.

[mu_hilltopper]

NC State was 4-12 in the ACC, sure .. but their RPI was 104.  Far cry from the Savannah States of the world.

So .. what's changed here?  I thought MU was tapped out so badly, they had to schedule 13 cupcakes a year at the BC?  How dare they talk to high interest teams like Minnesota, Stanford, BC, Maryland? 

[Marquette84]

NC State was 4-12 in the ACC, sure .. but their RPI was 104.  Far cry from the Savannah States of the world.

So .. what's changed here?  I thought MU was tapped out so badly, they had to schedule 13 cupcakes a year at the BC?  How dare they talk to high interest teams like Minnesota, Stanford, BC, Maryland? 

We have more flexibility because of the two extra home games as part of the Chicago Invitational.

BTW, for those who think this is a boost in the RPI, you may need to brush up on your math.  Assuming both teams (and their leagues) turn in similar records, this will be a slight RPI downgrade.

Opponents record counts 50%--this is simply equal to the winning percentage of the opponent:
UTA:  17-11 or .6071 x 50% = .3036
NCSU: 15-16 or  .4839 x 50% = .2420

Opponents SOS counts 25%--this is the average winning percentage of the teams in the Southland and the ACC.  In other words, the average winning percentage in the Southland was .475, while it was .625 in the ACC:
UTA:  .4751  x .25 = .1188
NCSU: .6245 x .25 = .1561

Total: 
UTA:  .3036 + .1188 = .4223
NCSU:  .2420 + .1561 = .3981

Slight edge in RPI impact to UTA.  The relative strength of the ACC doesn't quite offset the UTA's stronger record, because the direct opponent's record (UTA & NC State) count twice as much toward our own RPI. 

I don't doubt that people would rather see NC State--but don't confuse popularity with a boost in RPI. 

[1990Warrior]

I am not concerned so much with the RPI differential.  This will be a nice road test for us - good to get out of the BC before conference play begins.

[NYWarrior]

Nope, Tom Gugliotta and the Wolfpack kicked our collective asses at the BC. The '74 Championship Game you're referring to was played in Greensboro. The Warriors beat Kansas and NCST defeated UCLA in the semis.

And MU lost at Reynolds Coliseum back in the 1990-1991 season too.........ugly

[bilsu]

I think that is certainly part of it, but than why does our RPI go up when we enter conference? I always assumed it was because we were playing better teams. What your telling me its is going up because the weaker teams we played in non-conference are now getting more wins, becasue they are playing weaker competition in their conferences. It has occured to me that the way to have a strong schedule is to make sure you lose all of your games. Conversely, every tine you win you hurt your strenght of schedule. That is why the NCAA looks at who you play and does not rely strictly on a mathematical RPI. Whether we win or lose, a game at NC ST will mean more than a home win against the 320th team in the counrty.

[bilsu]

I must have blocked those other losses out of my memory. You cannot forget a championship game.

[nola03]

The initial MU fan reaction is that MU is a better program then NC State right now and out of respect the series should start in Milwaukee. But I like how Buzz has set this up with the alternating Wisconsin game. This way, MU gets a true road game in an ACC arena and gets the home game next season when our team may have a sharp learning curve.

Wins on the road to NC State, road/neutral in Nashville against the Vols, and home to Wisconsin mean the Warriors could get into the Tournament with a 9-9 Big East record.

[bilsu]

It is perfect for both schools. NC ST has a young team this year and would presumably have a hard time on the road against a senior laden MU team. Next year MU will have the younger team and with a young team you want to play at home.

[Marquette84]

I think that is certainly part of it, but than why does our RPI go up when we enter conference? I always assumed it was because we were playing better teams. What your telling me its is going up because the weaker teams we played in non-conference are now getting more wins, becasue they are playing weaker competition in their conferences.

It really is a combination of the two.

When Utah Valley State finished 8-1 to finish with a near .500 record, it helped us just as much as anyone else's wins.  





*** It has occured to me that the way to have a strong schedule is to make sure you lose all of your games.

First let's put aside the obvious supidity of optimizing for SOS rather than RPI.  Losing to each opponent is 1/30'th of your own sechedule, but 1/900'th of your opponents.  Even accounting for the fact that your own wins count for 25% and opponents for 50%, there's a 15 to 1 ratio of importance.


But even if you were stupid enough to adopt this approch, it wouldn't work.  You represent just 1 of 30 games on the other team's schedule.   Your SOS is based on how those teams perform across 30 games--not just one.   If the team you just threw a game to goes 1-29 instead of 0-30, your SOS will still stink.



***Conversely, every tine you win you hurt your strenght of schedule.

Marginally, yes, but you're forgetting about your own winning percentage.  




***That is why the NCAA looks at who you play and does not rely strictly on a mathematical RPI. Whether we win or lose, a game at NC ST will mean more than a home win against the 320th team in the counrty.

Doubtful.

First, the comparison wasn't with the 320th team in the country, it was with the 147th.

Second, "Good Wins" don't get considered until the opponent is a top 25 or top 50.

Third, the NCAA expects top teams to win these games--there's no "extra credit" for wins here.  The only reason the NCAA would consider this game is if it were a loss.  Losing to NC State might have a smaller penalty than losing to Texas Arlington or the #320 team--but all three would be negatives.