2023-24 KenPom Ratings

[Uncle Rico]

Marquette starts the year at 11.

UConn at 4, Creighton at 12

UW-Madison at 20

[tower912]

I shall not sleep tonight.

[mugrad_89]

Marquette starts the year at 11.

UConn at 4, Creighton at 12

UW-Madison at 20

KenPom hates us.

[jfp61]

KenPom Predicted Results for Marquette

Date                   Rk   Opponent    Result Tempo Est. Win %     Location         
Mon Nov 6      252   Northern Illinois   W, 85-61   72   99%   Home           
Fri Nov 10      229   Rider   W, 84-61   71   98%   Home           
Tue Nov 14   19   Illinois   L, 74-73   73   44%   Away           
Mon Nov 20   26   UCLA   W, 71-68   70   59%   Neutral           
Tue Nov 28   328   Southern   W, 84-56   71   99.5%   Home           
Sat Dec 2      20   Wisconsin   L, 70-68   69   44%   Away           
Wed Dec 6      16   Texas   W, 74-70   72   65%   Home           
Sat Dec 9      165   Notre Dame   W, 79-61   69   95%   Home           
Thu Dec 14   242   St. Thomas   W, 85-62   71   98%   Home           
Tue Dec 19   54   Providence   W, 73-70   71   61%   Away       ×   
Fri Dec 22      159   Georgetown   W, 83-64   71   95%   Home       ×   
Sat Dec 30   12   Creighton   W, 75-71   72   62%   Home       ×   
Sat Jan 6      56   Seton Hall   W, 73-69   71   62%   Away       ×   
Wed Jan 10   96   Butler   W, 78-63   71   91%   Home       ×   
Mon Jan 15   23   Villanova   W, 75-69   70   70%   Home       ×   
Sat Jan 20      60   St. John's   W, 76-71   73   64%   Away       ×   
Wed Jan 24   110   DePaul   W, 78-68   72   82%   Away       ×   
Sat Jan 27      56   Seton Hall   W, 76-66   71   82%   Home       ×   
Tue Jan 30      23   Villanova   L, 73-72   70   47%   Away       ×   
Sat Feb 3      159   Georgetown   W, 79-67   71   86%   Away       ×   
Sat Feb 10      60   St. John's   W, 79-68   73   83%   Home       ×   
Tue Feb 13   96   Butler   W, 75-66   71   78%   Away       ×   
Sat Feb 17      4   Connecticut   L, 74-69   71   30%   Away       ×   
Wed Feb 21   110   DePaul   W, 81-65   72   93%   Home       ×   
Sun Feb 25   34   Xavier   W, 78-71   73   74%   Home       ×   
Wed Feb 28   54   Providence   W, 77-67   71   81%   Home       ×   
Sat Mar 2      12   Creighton   L, 75-71   72   39%   Away       ×   
Wed Mar 6      4   Connecticut   W, 72-71   71   53%   Home       ×   
Sat Mar 9      34   Xavier   W, 75-74   73   52%   Away       ×   

Projected record:   21-8    Conference Record: 14-6

[dgies9156]

KenPom Predicted Results for Marquette

Date                   Rk   Opponent    Result Tempo Est. Win %     Location         
Mon Nov 6      252   Northern Illinois   W, 85-61   72   99%   Home           
Fri Nov 10      229   Rider   W, 84-61   71   98%   Home           
Tue Nov 14   19   Illinois   L, 74-73   73   44%   Away           
Mon Nov 20   26   UCLA   W, 71-68   70   59%   Neutral           
Tue Nov 28   328   Southern   W, 84-56   71   99.5%   Home           
Sat Dec 2      20   Wisconsin   L, 70-68   69   44%   Away           
Wed Dec 6      16   Texas   W, 74-70   72   65%   Home           
Sat Dec 9      165   Notre Dame   W, 79-61   69   95%   Home           
Thu Dec 14   242   St. Thomas   W, 85-62   71   98%   Home           
Tue Dec 19   54   Providence   W, 73-70   71   61%   Away       ×   
Fri Dec 22      159   Georgetown   W, 83-64   71   95%   Home       ×   
Sat Dec 30   12   Creighton   W, 75-71   72   62%   Home       ×   
Sat Jan 6      56   Seton Hall   W, 73-69   71   62%   Away       ×   
Wed Jan 10   96   Butler   W, 78-63   71   91%   Home       ×   
Mon Jan 15   23   Villanova   W, 75-69   70   70%   Home       ×   
Sat Jan 20      60   St. John's   W, 76-71   73   64%   Away       ×   
Wed Jan 24   110   DePaul   W, 78-68   72   82%   Away       ×   
Sat Jan 27      56   Seton Hall   W, 76-66   71   82%   Home       ×   
Tue Jan 30      23   Villanova   L, 73-72   70   47%   Away       ×   
Sat Feb 3      159   Georgetown   W, 79-67   71   86%   Away       ×   
Sat Feb 10      60   St. John's   W, 79-68   73   83%   Home       ×   
Tue Feb 13   96   Butler   W, 75-66   71   78%   Away       ×   
Sat Feb 17      4   Connecticut   L, 74-69   71   30%   Away       ×   
Wed Feb 21   110   DePaul   W, 81-65   72   93%   Home       ×   
Sun Feb 25   34   Xavier   W, 78-71   73   74%   Home       ×   
Wed Feb 28   54   Providence   W, 77-67   71   81%   Home       ×   
Sat Mar 2      12   Creighton   L, 75-71   72   39%   Away       ×   
Wed Mar 6      4   Connecticut   W, 72-71   71   53%   Home       ×   
Sat Mar 9      34   Xavier   W, 75-74   73   52%   Away       ×   

Projected record:   21-8    Conference Record: 14-6

Maybe I'm missing something but the only losses I saw on this list are:

Illinois (1 pt)
Wisconsin (2 pts)
Villanova (3 pts)
UConn (5 pts)
Creighton (4 pts)

Every single one of those KenPom losses is an away game. We're going to win all but three conference games and be 7-2 in non-conference games. I don't see Hawaii in here after UCLA so that could be one more win or loss.

Nonetheless, an incredible season if this happens! We'd be 24-5 and 17-3 in conference/

[Uncle Rico]

Maybe I'm missing something but the only losses I saw on this list are:

Illinois (1 pt)
Wisconsin (2 pts)
Villanova (3 pts)
UConn (5 pts)
Creighton (4 pts)

Every single one of those KenPom losses is an away game. We're going to win all but three conference games and be 7-2 in non-conference games. I don't see Hawaii in here after UCLA so that could be one more win or loss.

Nonetheless, an incredible season if this happens! We'd be 24-5 and 17-3 in conference/

I would put little to no stock in game-to-game predictions from any of the analytics sites at this point in the calendar.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Maybe I'm missing something but the only losses I saw on this list are:

Illinois (1 pt)
Wisconsin (2 pts)
Villanova (3 pts)
UConn (5 pts)
Creighton (4 pts)

Every single one of those KenPom losses is an away game. We're going to win all but three conference games and be 7-2 in non-conference games. I don't see Hawaii in here after UCLA so that could be one more win or loss.

Nonetheless, an incredible season if this happens! We'd be 24-5 and 17-3 in conference/

We are favored in all but five games. But there are more projected toss ups that we are favored to win than projected toss ups that we are favored to lose. KenPom's model assumes we will lose three more of those projected close wins than projected close losses that we win.

Think of it this way. If we are projected to have a 75% chance of winning in four games, your method would say we should go 4-0. The odds would say we should go 3-1.

[MuMark]

So ND is now effectively a buy game? 

[tower912]

It could go either way.

[brewcity77]

So ND is now effectively a buy game? 

I think Pomeroy has them wildly overrated.

[PointWarrior]

See Pomeroy still has its Badger bias factored in.   

[wisblue]

I wouldn't get too hung up on these ratings and predictions. They are just used as a starting point to rate teams until actual results come in.

Of course we all have very high expectations and hopes for this year's MU team. But, if you think about, it a record of 21-8 (plus whatever happens in the other games in Hawaii and in the BET) and an 11 ranking isn't unreasonable. A 14-6 conference record and a 3 seed in the NCAA could be a starting point for a strong run in the tournament. I think a repeat of last year's 17-3 conference record is highly unlikely; the competition is too tough.

That having been said, a loss to the Badgers would be totally unacceptable.

[Herman Cain]

UCLA game is most important of the year .

[mugrad_89]

UCLA game is most important of the year .

I agree - getting into the winner's bracket in Maui is huge.

[dgies9156]

I would put little to no stock in game-to-game predictions from any of the analytics sites at this point in the calendar.

Generally, I agree. In every season you're going to win some you should lose and lose some you should win.

That's a fact.

I didn't see the math in the original post.