Investing Thread

[GOO]

So for those of us (I think just me on here) who think that it's highly probable that most of the tariffs are deemed unconstitutional/not an emergency, is the play for a fairly conservative investor to go more heavily into international ETFs? This would be extra cash.

I imagine American stocks pop as well, but I think European could do  well (maybe not China as that may be deemed some sort of an emergency, at least in certain areas like EVs where highly subsidized items are being dumped)?

And yes, I do think the tarrifs will generally be overturned. The commerce clause is too clear and fundamental, and it plays right into original interpretation, etc., in both sides of this court. It won't be a political decision. If I'm wrong on this one, then I give up, and probably should be going international anyway.

[Jockey]

Depends on your opinion of the Supreme Court. Will they follow the law or have they been bought and payed for?

I know where I stand.

[The Sultan]

Depends on your opinion of the Supreme Court. Will they follow the law or have they been bought and payed for?

I know where I stand.

*paid

[Jockey]

*paid

Thank you, JB. I mean Jay Bee. 

[MU82]

So for those of us (I think just me on here) who think that it's highly probable that most of the tariffs are deemed unconstitutional/not an emergency, is the play for a fairly conservative investor to go more heavily into international ETFs? This would be extra cash.

I imagine American stocks pop as well, but I think European could do  well (maybe not China as that may be deemed some sort of an emergency, at least in certain areas like EVs where highly subsidized items are being dumped)?

And yes, I do think the tarrifs will generally be overturned. The commerce clause is too clear and fundamental, and it plays right into original interpretation, etc., in both sides of this court. It won't be a political decision. If I'm wrong on this one, then I give up, and probably should be going international anyway.

International stocks/ETFs/funds have done well this year (IXUS, for example, is up 23%), so some might be concerned that the easy money on them already has been made. Most advisers would recommend exposure to international anyway, so if one has little to none, it could be a good excuse to buy. Don't forget that many U.S. companies actually are multinational, with huge foreign investments.

I've been trying to figure out how the market would react to the tariffs being struck down. Maybe an initial downward shock followed by a relief rally? Just a wild guess, though. Nobody really knows.

I wish you good fortune.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

So for those of us (I think just me on here) who think that it's highly probable that most of the tariffs are deemed unconstitutional/not an emergency, is the play for a fairly conservative investor to go more heavily into international ETFs? This would be extra cash.

I imagine American stocks pop as well, but I think European could do  well (maybe not China as that may be deemed some sort of an emergency, at least in certain areas like EVs where highly subsidized items are being dumped)?

And yes, I do think the tarrifs will generally be overturned. The commerce clause is too clear and fundamental, and it plays right into original interpretation, etc., in both sides of this court. It won't be a political decision. If I'm wrong on this one, then I give up, and probably should be going international anyway.

Howard Lutnick's son is busy buying up tariff refunds for $0.20 on the dollar.

It is hard to imagine this SC going against Trump; they have complaint with his every whim thus far. If you are correct, however, everything will pop.

Now, if Trump had two working brain cells left in the goo that his brain has become, you'd think a repeal of his precious tariffs and the ensuing market reaction would be a get of jail free for his vastly stupid policy. More likely, however, is that he will find a workaround and double down on the disastrous tariffs--because he can never be wrong-- and chaos (and insider trading opportunities) will once again abound.

[Uncle Rico]

Jobless claims highest they've been since June 2023.  Health insurance rates for companies highest they have been since 2011.  Ten year rate falls to 4%

[Hards Alumni]

Jobless claims highest they've been since June 2023.  Health insurance rates for companies highest they have been since 2011.  Ten year rate falls to 4%

"Powell was too late cutting rates"

[Skatastrophy]

Market is up today? I expected a drop since inflation has continued its rise.

Edit: The street thinks that inflation isn't rising fast enough to preclude a rate drop. Yeesh.

[MU82]

Market is up today? I expected a drop since inflation has continued its rise.

Edit: The street thinks that inflation isn't rising fast enough to preclude a rate drop. Yeesh.

I think today's inflation read locks in a .25 reduction, vs the .50 that some had been hoping/calling for. Agree about the strange market reaction, but then again the constant upward march has been baffling most of the year.

[jesmu84]

The stock market is not a good barometer of the health/strength of the economy.

[Uncle Rico]

Grocery prices are highest they've been since 2022.  What a disaster

[Skatastrophy]

The stock market is not a good barometer of the health/strength of the economy.

This is why I invest in index funds. I know where the economy is going, mostly, but with the market decoupled from the economy, I am bad at predicting the future. I invest all of my money in the market at a comfortable allocation and never sell.

[Jay Bee]

Grocery prices are highest they've been since 2022.  What a disaster

Not a big deal. If you order fast food on apps, many great deals are to be had for every meal.

[Skatastrophy]

Not a big deal. If you order fast food on apps, many great deals are to be had for every meal.

I read a thing the other week, I'm going to butcher the quote, but it was like, "Of course your dinner is gonna be expensive when it gets its own taxi."

You're right, though. Some of it can actually be pretty affordable and it's rad to get food at my door from all over the city.