Loo (British for John) ies thoughts

[Newsdreams]

I love what Garcia gives the team but you either can jump out of the gym by this age or not.  Strength will help him get more shots up in a different non-athletic crafty way.  But he is getting blocked because he is a below the rim player at 6'11 and that is probably not going to change.

I think it has more to do with learning that college defense and game is a lot faster. In HS he was used to just go up for the easy 2, no one could contest or would get foul. Now is a different game faster, more athletic stronger defenders. Can't just go straight up, needs to make move or fake the shot first, or has to be faster to the hoop. Plus many times he is getting foul and not having benefit of calls, frosh.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

• Unguarded threes kept St John's in the game in the first half, particularly the ones where they may have been shooting in an open gym.
  

So I finally figured out how to work synergy to see guarded vs. unguarded threes. I went back and looked at the SJU game, for what it's worth, we only gave up 6 unguarded threes in the entire game, only 3 in the first half. The breakdown was

1 to Champagnie in the second half (Made)
1 to Dunn in the first half (Missed)
1 to Addae-Wusu in the first half (Made)
1 to Earlington in the first half (Made)
2 to Cole in the second half (Made one missed the other)

Most impressive to me was 10/11 of Champagnie's threes were guarded, shows that the team knew who to stay in the pocket of and a kudos to Lewis specifically. Of course, Champagnie still went 4/10 on those shots.

EDIT: Forgot to add. One of those unguarded made threes was off an offensive rebound that went straight to an SJU player who kicked it out to an open shooter. Hard to blame that one on the defense

[1SE]

So I finally figured out how to work synergy to see guarded vs. unguarded threes. I went back and looked at the SJU game, for what it's worth, we only gave up 6 unguarded threes in the entire game, only 3 in the first half. The breakdown was

1 to Champagnie in the second half (Made)
1 to Dunn in the first half (Missed)
1 to Addae-Wusu in the first half (Made)
1 to Earlington in the first half (Made)
2 to Cole in the second half (Made one missed the other)

Most impressive to me was 10/11 of Champagnie's threes were guarded, shows that the team knew who to stay in the pocket of and a kudos to Lewis specifically. Of course, Champagnie still went 4/10 on those shots.

I dont get the "only" here - is 6 unguarded 3s not a lot? Is 50% on those shots not good? If they were all guarded and make 2/6 (SJU season avg) that's one less 3.

I know we haven't had a ton of 1 possession finishes this year (and are 2-1 in the 3 we've had) but spotting the other team 3 free points because we dont guard a half dozen 3s per game doesn't seem like a good strategy

[Autoengineer]

So how big of a dog house is Jose Perez in. 

[Chili]

So how big of a dog house is Jose Perez in.

He's not. He's just not a talented as the players getting run.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I dont get the "only" here - is 6 unguarded 3s not a lot? Is 50% on those shots not good? If they were all guarded and make 2/6 (SJU season avg) that's one less 3.

We had been giving up 10.5 unguarded threes a game. The D1 average is 8.5 a game. So only is an appropriate modifier,  especially given that it was a higher possession game. Unguarded threes happen,  no defense is perfect. Unguarded also doesn't necessarily mean good. For example,  12% 3p shooter Raheem Dunn taking a three is not a good shot guarded or unguarded.

The 50% is high but that's bad luck. Once the shot is out of the shooter's hands,  there's nothing more the defense can do.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

So how big of a dog house is Jose Perez in.

He's not. He's just not a talented as the players getting run.

I don't think either of these things is true. I think Jose and the staff decided to treat this as a redshirt year despite the waiver. It's rare,  but some players actually do want to redshirt

[CountryRoads]

I don't think either of these things is true. I think Jose and the staff decided to treat this as a redshirt year despite the waiver. It's rare,  but some players actually do want to redshirt

In a normal year, absolutely. Though, I'm struggling to find a reason why a 22 year old guy would rather not play at all vs playing 20min a game considering there is no impact on his eligibility. My opinion is that he wants to play but isn't quite in the rotation yet.

[tower912]

The minutes he has played did not show enough to think he would crack the top 8 on this team.    yet.   

[Its DJOver]

I think the problem is that you're trying to understand the mindset of a 22 year old that has suffered from mental health issues.  We can talk about it forever behind our keyboards, but none of us has any clue what is going through the young man's head.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

In a normal year, absolutely. Though, I'm struggling to find a reason why a 22 year old guy would rather not play at all vs playing 20min a game considering there is no impact on his eligibility. My opinion is that he wants to play but isn't quite in the rotation yet.

Or in an abnormal year. Maybe he decided that COVID wasn't worth the risk and decided to opt out.

My thought process is that he isn't dressing so it's not a "not good enough issue" because even the walk ons dress. He's not acting like a guy in major trouble so if he's in the doghouse he's taking it very well. I think he and the staff decided to treat this year as a redshirt year despite the waiver.

[MU82]

Unguarded also doesn't necessarily mean good. For example,  12% 3p shooter Raheem Dunn taking a three is not a good shot guarded or unguarded.

Yep, coaches often choose to leave bad shooters open from 3. I mean, look how 75% 3-point shooter Theo John is left wide open, possession after possession after possession.

You try to take away what will hurt you most, and try to tempt others into doing what they are not very good at. MU opponents might as well have held up signs saying, "Go ahead, Derrick ... shoot!" If Derrick happened to go 4-for-5 to lead a Marquette win (in fantasyland), it still would not have been a "bad" strategy by the opposing coach.

During the 1995 playoffs (MJ's first postseason after coming out of retirement), Phil Jackson purposely let Horace Grant take any open jumper of 15+ feet that he wanted. Grant ended up killing the Bulls, and rubbed it in Jackson's face after the series. "Credit to Horace," Jackson said. "But we'd do it again."

Phil Jackson ... pretty good coach.

[brewcity77]

We had been giving up 10.5 unguarded threes a game. The D1 average is 8.5 a game. So only is an appropriate modifier,  especially given that it was a higher possession game. Unguarded threes happen,  no defense is perfect. Unguarded also doesn't necessarily mean good. For example,  12% 3p shooter Raheem Dunn taking a three is not a good shot guarded or unguarded.

The 50% is high but that's bad luck. Once the shot is out of the shooter's hands,  there's nothing more the defense can do.

The ones I had the most issue with on Saturday were the ones where we didn't even make a token effort to get out on the shooter. There were three in particular where the shooter got the ball and almost looked surprised they had so much time. Even a bad shooter at this level can look good when they're effectively in an open gym.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The 50% is high but that's bad luck. Once the shot is out of the shooter's hands,  there's nothing more the defense can do.

I assumed 1SE's math was correct. SJU actually went 4/6 (66%) on unguarded threes. That's very bad luck. That's a PPP of 2. The D1 average on unguarded threes is just above 1.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The ones I had the most issue with on Saturday were the ones where we didn't even make a token effort to get out on the shooter. There were three in particular where the shooter got the ball and almost looked surprised they had so much time. Even a bad shooter at this level can look good when they're effectively in an open gym.

I'd have to go back and look, I remember 2 like that but IIRC one was off an offensive rebound that went straight to a Johnnie who kicked it out. Hard to fault the defense on that one.

Regardless, it's less than the 5/7 on unguarded 3s in the first half that you mentioned in the game thread 

[brewcity77]

I'd have to go back and look, I remember 2 like that but IIRC one was off an offensive rebound that went straight to a Johnnie who kicked it out. Hard to fault the defense on that one.

Regardless, it's less than the 5/7 on unguarded 3s in the first half that you mentioned in the game thread 

There were 7 in the first half with token defense at best, and 5 went in. Synergy may not have counted all as such, but our inability to limit their open attempts kept them in the game early & made their comeback effort easier late.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

There were 7 in the first half with token defense at best, and 5 went in. Synergy may not have counted all as such, but our inability to limit their open attempts kept them in the game early & made their comeback effort easier late.

Brew, I'm not calling you a liar, but St. John's only made 4 three pointers in the first half. So the 5/7 in the first half is impossible. And for what it's worth, synergy only counted 2 of those makes as unguarded, and 1 of those was the offensive rebound that I mentioned. I think you were seeing ghosts out there.

[Its DJOver]

NoJo juice will do that to you.  Interesting that when the Synergy numbers showed us giving up a ton of open three's it was gospel, but once it shows us doing a decent job it's, well Synergy may not have showed it, but we're bad.

[fjm]

To be fair, love brews work. But this year it has been completely biased with hard nojo slants.
Used to take his work as given and appropriate. But now even when MU does something well or wins, it's a negative tone.

Unguarded 3's happen. It sucks. But it's fewer over the last few games. Which is good! Getting better is good!

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

NoJo juice will do that to you.  Interesting that when the Synergy numbers showed us giving up a ton of open three's it was gospel, but once it shows us doing a decent job it's, well Synergy may not have showed it, but we're bad.

To be fair, I made a similar comment after the Georgetown game where I said that I thought more of Georgetown's threes were guarded than was reality. We all have our own eye test and it's natural to be surprised when stats going against what our eyes are telling us.

[Its DJOver]

To be fair, I made a similar comment after the Georgetown game where I said that I thought more of Georgetown's threes were guarded than was reality. We all have our own eye test and it's natural to be surprised when stats going against what our eyes are telling us.

Fair.  I don't have Synergy, and don't know exactly what methodologies they use, but I do know that they are reputable enough that when they say we performed poorly, I believe it.  The other side of that coin is that when they say we performed well (at this one particular category), I also believe it.  You can't just use the advanced numbers when they help your argument, if you're going to use them, use them all the time.

[brewcity77]

Brew, I'm not calling you a liar, but St. John's only made 4 three pointers in the first half. So the 5/7 in the first half is impossible. And for what it's worth, synergy only counted 2 of those makes as unguarded, and 1 of those was the offensive rebound that I mentioned. I think you were seeing ghosts out there.

I can go back and diagram which shots they were. I don't have access to the game today.

[BM1090]

I can go back and diagram which shots they were. I don't have access to the game today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=peh6nYYS-do

Here you go.

[brewcity77]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=peh6nYYS-do

Here you go.

Time is also part of the access.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I can go back and diagram which shots they were. I don't have access to the game today.

You can, but again, they only made 4 3Ps total in the first half, so 5/7 in the first half is impossible.

Their four makes:
19:20: Greg Williams. Considered guarded by synergy. Jamal defended the shot with a hard but late closeout. Williams got open because Champagnie missed a guarded three, the rebound went straight to Posh Alexander at the top of the key who immediately kicked to Williams on the elbow. It was impressive that Cain get a hand in the face given where he started.

18:47: Greg Williams. Considered guarded by synergy. Jamal defended the shot with a hard but late closeout. Transition three. Jamal correctly goes to the hoop to stop a transition layup and then runs to cover Williams immediately after Alexander passes to him. Williams releases in the first 5 seconds of the shot clock. Again, impressive that Cain got a hand in the face given where he started.

5:24: Marcellus Earlington. Considered unguarded by synergy. Williams drives on Carton. Lewis incorrectly slides to help Carton, leaving his man unguarded in the corner.

2:18: Dylan Addae-Wusu. Considered unguarded by synergy. Elliott misses a transition three and it leads to a St. John's transition three. St. John's had a 3 on 2. Carton goes to stop the ball, McEwen goes to cover Moore under the basket. No one left to pick up Addae-Wusu in the corner, shot goes up 4 seconds into the shot clock.

The halfcourt defense gave up 1 made three in the first half. Season long, still an issue, but it really wasn't an issue in the first half of St. John's. I don't think it was an issue in the second half either, but I haven't looked as closely.