MU Head Coach dilemma. Great groan or gone

[panda]

Why dont you take a scoop break pal.. just endless rambling. And what hell were those gifs?? Pandas doing doggy style? Just what in the fuk

He's a deranged person

[f/k/a humanlung]

Luck also matters.  If it was simply coaching and desire, Duke wouldn't lose to Lehigh and Mercer, Virginia wouldn't lose to UMBC, and on and on and on.

Or did Coach K and Tony Bennett and Izzo and McGuire and Buzz and on and on become morons those days they lost to teams they should have not lost to?

True, Cheeks.  But the post I replied to made it sounds like March Madness was craps.  And craps is math, nothing else.

[WhoaJoe2020]

So you're equating something that is based on chance and rules of mathematical probably to the expected outcome of the NCAA Tournament?

Now I understand.

You fail to take into account what many of us have been saying. COACHING MATTERS.  Effort matters.  Desire matters.

None of these things are in your analogy and, sadly, are frequently missing from MU the last few seasons.

Yes I am. Its actually a very good analogy. Just like there are many variables that make the outcome of a dice roll unpredictable, there are many variables in basketball that make the outcome unpredictable. Hence all the upsets and busted brackets. Coaching is just another variable as are effort and desire. Lucky bounces in basketball, like lucky rolls in dice, a  basketball player being hot from three one game, a dice roller being on a hot streak, a  basketball team getting a big lead and then collapsing, a dice roller getting up big and then losing it all. Though they're not exactly the same, obviously, there are enough similarities and variables to make the statement that the NCAA tournament is a crapshoot more than reasonable.

[f/k/a humanlung]

Yes I am. Its actually a very good analogy. Just like there are many variables that make the outcome of a dice roll unpredictable, there are many variables in basketball that make the outcome unpredictable. Hence all the upsets and busted brackets. Coaching is just another variable as are effort and desire. Lucky bounces in basketball, like lucky rolls in dice, a  basketball player being hot from three one game, a dice roller being on a hot streak, a  basketball team getting a big lead and then collapsing, a dice roller getting up big and then losing it all. Though they're not exactly the same, obviously, there are enough similarities and variables to make the statement that the NCAA tournament is a crapshoot more than reasonable.

To repost a comment from another:

That must be why there's an even distribution of NCAA Championships across 1 to 16 seeds.

The variables you mention can come into play over the short term.  Over longer periods of time, your claimed variables diminish in impact.  Over long periods, the characteristics I highlighted win out.

And regarding Wojo, we now have enough data points to determine that he is not a good coach.  Great recruiter. Crap coach.

[dinger]

Yes I am. Its actually a very good analogy. Just like there are many variables that make the outcome of a dice roll unpredictable, there are many variables in basketball that make the outcome unpredictable. Hence all the upsets and busted brackets. Coaching is just another variable as are effort and desire. Lucky bounces in basketball, like lucky rolls in dice, a  basketball player being hot from three one game, a dice roller being on a hot streak, a  basketball team getting a big lead and then collapsing, a dice roller getting up big and then losing it all. Though they're not exactly the same, obviously, there are enough similarities and variables to make the statement that the NCAA tournament is a crapshoot more than reasonable.

Craps is an ok analogy. Theres better examples of probability. The problem with craps that they are dice, you cant do anything to change the likelihood of success.
You talked about hannibal lecter types in another thread. Sure one in a bajillion people end up serial killers, and one in a bajillion people will end up eaten by them. Does that mean we should just dismiss it as bad luck? Does bad odds make any of the victims feel better?
Look at the titans. Does anyone really think the titans would beat the ravens by 16 10 out of 10 times? Is that supposed to make ravens fans feel any better? Could the ravens have done things differently to improve their odds?
There are things you can do to improve your odds (ie never smoking) but one can still get lung cancer. Factors beyond your control. Doesnt make anyone feel better about any of it.
Yeah probability is involved here but that's why I hate the crapshoot analogy. It ignores the human element. But not coach is going to be as long winded as us about this stuff so they just call it that.

[WhoaJoe2020]

Craps is an ok analogy. Theres better examples of probability. The problem with craps that they are dice, you cant do anything to change the likelihood of success.
You talked about hannibal lecter types in another thread. Sure one in a bajillion people end up serial killers, and one in a bajillion people will end up eaten by them. Does that mean we should just dismiss it as bad luck? Does bad odds make any of the victims feel better?
Look at the titans. Does anyone really think the titans would beat the ravens by 16 10 out of 10 times? Is that supposed to make ravens fans feel any better? Could the ravens have done things differently to improve their odds?
There are things you can do to improve your odds (ie never smoking) but one can still get lung cancer. Factors beyond your control. Doesnt make anyone feel better about any of it.
Yeah probability is involved here but that's why I hate the crapshoot analogy. It ignores the human element. But not coach is going to be as long winded as us about this stuff so they just call it that.

Believe me, I totally get what you're saying.
A lot of times, before coaches or analysts say "it's a crapshoot", they will preface their statement by pointing out the fact that ALL of the teams that get to the tournament are good, as a way to suggest that if a higher seed loses to a lower seed people shouldn't be too surprised. They usually go on to point to some variable, like a made three by the other team, or an unlucky bounce, an injury to a key player, a tough call by the refs, etc, etc. Basically bad luck that no one has any control over.

Is calling it a crapshoot a cop out to minimize the embarrassment of a higher seed losing to a lower seed? Maybe.

Is it a way to show respect to the lower seed who beat the higher seed? Definitely.

By advancing the proposition that the teams in the tournament are basically equals, it lends some credibility to the statement that every game in the tournament is a crapshoot.

In some match ups the crapshoot statement is fairly accurate.
Like Marquette vs Murray St.

In some match ups the crapshoot statement might be considered a joke.
Like Virginia vs MBC 

I'm guessing after that game Bennett referred to the tournament as a " crapshoot " LOL