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TAMU, Knower of Ball

#1
November 30, 2018, 04:05:12 PM
Honestly surprised. I think that's right, but I assumed that Vegas would favor K-State.
Quote from: Goose on January 15, 2023, 08:43:46 PM
TAMU

I do know, Newsie is right on you knowing ball.

Floorslapper

#2
November 30, 2018, 04:20:02 PM
Quote from: TAMU Eagle on November 30, 2018, 04:05:12 PM
Honestly surprised. I think that's right, but I assumed that Vegas would favor K-State.

I've noticed Vegas lines over the last few years almost are the exact same as projected Pomeroy.  However, KenPom has us favored by just 1, not 2.

BM1090

#3
November 30, 2018, 04:22:58 PM
Quote from: Floorslapper on November 30, 2018, 04:20:02 PM
I've noticed Vegas lines over the last few years almost are the exact same as projected Pomeroy.  However, KenPom has us favored by just 1, not 2.

Yeah, they are definitely usually within a point or two. Once in awhile you'll see a 3 or 4 and that's when Vegas typically has an edge that the rest of us don't

Floorslapper

#4
November 30, 2018, 08:06:32 PM
Quote from: MUeagle1090 on November 30, 2018, 04:22:58 PM
Yeah, they are definitely usually within a point or two. Once in awhile you'll see a 3 or 4 and that's when Vegas typically has an edge that the rest of us don't

True.  I've frequently bet those games taking the "extra" points per the Pomeroy model, and yet my winning percentage on those bets as I recall doesn't seem to exceed a 50% winning percentage.


esotericmindguy

#5
November 30, 2018, 10:51:17 PM
Quote from: Floorslapper on November 30, 2018, 08:06:32 PM
True.  I've frequently bet those games taking the "extra" points per the Pomeroy model, and yet my winning percentage on those bets as I recall doesn't seem to exceed a 50% winning percentage.

Yeah. My friend and I used to do Teaser bets with Kenpom. Find a 4 point differential and move it another 4 points. We had good luck with it
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